Free Agency:
The big-names to be courted during this winter’s free agency period (Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, etc.) and big-name players who will potentially be shopped, (Garrett Atkins, Mike Cameron, etc.) are not the subject of this column, as they are discussed to no end by every beat writer and blogger who regards himself as a baseball expert. My goal is to predict the destinations of the smaller name players who will have big impacts in the coming seasons and to examine the reasons why certain signings/trades make sense. After all, the majority of off-season moves fall into this category, and ultimately make a big difference for the buyers and sellers over the course of the season.
One key free agent to watch is LF Pat Burrell. It is well known that Burrell’s first choice is to remain in Philadelphia with the team that drafted him first overall in 1998. The team to watch in the Burrell sweepstakes, should the Phillies push him out the door, is the Baltimore Orioles. The team has shown interest in Burrell in previous years, and it was reported that the club even had a deal in place two years ago for the left fielder until Burrell exercised his no-trade clause. With Adam Jones a lock in center field and Nick Markakis in right, Burrell would seem the obvious choice to start in left ahead of Luke Scott who shared time with free agent veteran Jay Payton. Payton will not be back if Burrell signs with Baltimore. Scott put up respectable numbers in 2008, registering career-highs in home runs (23) and RBI’s (65). Scott (.257 BA in 2008) is only about a year and a half younger than Burrell (.257 career BA). Burrell’s production and defense, yes his defense (86 outfield assists since 2000, including 12 in 2008), will outweigh Scott’s edge in the youth category. Offensively, since his first full season in 2001, Burrell has averaged over 29 HR and 93 RBIs per season. At 32, he will be an impact in the middle of the lineup still for a number of years. Another team to watch is the Dodgers, who might be in need of a LF should Manny Ramirez depart. Andruw Jones has bottomed out, but has one year remaining in LA, and Juan Pierre has requested a trade. With Matt Kemp in center, Andre Ethier in right, and two big right handed bats leaving the lineup (Ramirez and 2B Jeff Kent), Burrell would fit nicely in left for Joe Torre’s squad. Look for Burrell, who earned $14 million in 2008, to receive a contract slightly upwards of Eric Byrnes’s pre-2008 contract extension, worth $30 million over three seasons.
Free agent 3B Joe Crede is out of a job on the South Side of Chicago, as Josh Fields is the heir apparent at third, and the White Sox have grown tired of Crede’s never-ending back issues. Crede is a legitimate power threat, topping 20 HR in three consecutive years from 2004-2006, hitting 30 in ’06, the best offensive year of his career. In addition to his offensive aptitude, he has an exceptional glove at third base. His performance defensively was poor in 2008, the only year in which he topped 12 errors in a season. His career .963 fielding percentage speaks for itself. Crede goes toward the line and can pick it on his backhand with the best of them. Injuries will be the only detractor in Crede’s case, but the Brewers, Dodgers, Indians, Angels and Twins should be most interested. The Indians just dealt 3B Casey Blake, who could walk away from the Dodgers, the team that dealt 3B prospect Andy LaRoche in order to land Manny Ramirez at the trade deadline. The Brewers officially gave up on Bill Hall, buying out his contract, and 3B has been a problem spot for the Twins since the Mike Lamb experiment failed last season. Crede and Blake will create competition among these teams looking to shore up their hot corners. If healthy, Crede is hands down the better value and is five years younger than Blake. The teams interested will certainly be reduced by one should one of those mentioned swing a trade for Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins, who has two arbitration years ahead of him before free agency.
Pending Burrell’s departure from Philadelphia, the Phillies will be looking for a right handed bat to platoon in the outfield and to balance the bench that includes lefties Matt Stairs, Jeff Jenkins, and Greg Dobbs. A low risk solution could potentially be found in 30-year old free agent Juan Rivera. He is a career .284 hitter and had his best season in 2006, but has lately been the victim of the Angels' outfield depth (Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Garrett Anderson – also a free agent, Gary Matthews, Jr., Reggie Willits). Rivera will not be expensive, and should welcome the idea of a platoon role over being a fifth outfielder, as he was in LA.
Sean Casey’s one-year, $800,000 contract with the Red Sox has expired, and with Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, and even David Ortiz able to man first base in Boston, Casey is almost a sure bet to depart. He is a career .302 contact hitter with a lifetime on-base percentage of .381 and seems a perfect fit for the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane’s style of low-risk, short-term signings. First base has been a problem spot for Oakland as Daric Barton and John Hannahan performed terribly at the plate this past season. Barton and Hannahan, who manned third base for much of the year for the oft-injured Eric Chavez, were near mirror images of each other in 2008 as Barton hit .226 with 9 HR/ 47 RBIs/ 2 steals in 140 games and Hannahan hit .218 with 9 HR/47 RBI/ 2 steals in 143 games. Both are left handed, like Casey. I’ll take Casey.
Trades:
One of the most intriguing teams this off-season is shaping up to be the Oakland A’s. Billy Beane just acquired LF Matt Holliday from the Rockies for lefty starter Greg Smith, closer Huston Street, and OF Carlos Gonzalez. As I have written before, the shrewd GM is turned off by any long-term contract and commitment demands, the same demands that Holliday will be making one year from now when he tests the free agent market for the first time. So, first order of business is to discount any possibility of Holliday being in an Athletics uniform beyond 2009, or maybe even by the end of the 2009 season. Beane often signs veterans to 1-year deals, which is essentially what he has in Holliday, at $13 million, a salary Beane is never inclined to hand out. I see two potential options that Beane is weighing. The first is another trade of Holliday before the start of the season, when teams who do not solve their off-season LF issues begin to panic. In such a trade, Beane, whom I regard as the most deft trade negotiator in baseball, would garner more young talent than he gave up in Smith, Street, and Gonzalez. If he does not go this route, I expect Beane to deal Holliday at next year’s trade deadline, given that the A’s trail the Angels in the West. In that situation, Beane again would receive more in return than he gave up to get Holliday. If the A’s are in first place in the AL West come the end of July 2009, Beane will likely keep Holliday’s bat and receive two compensation draft picks (one from the team Holliday signs with, one supplemental round pick) in return, as Holliday will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent.
With the recent re-signing of sure handed 2B Mark Ellis (.989 fielding percentage) to a 2-year extension through 2010, Ellis could be keeping second base warm for 21-year old Double-A prospect Adrian Cardenas (.297 career Minor League BA). A year from now, depending on Cardenas’s progress in Triple-A Sacramento, Ellis could be valuable trade bait to a high-powered team looking to shore up second base with top-flight defense (i.e. the Cubs should Mark DeRosa sign elsewhere). Eric Chavez is also under contract through 2010. He has one of the best gloves I have ever seen at third base (.969 career fielding %), and is a 25 HR threat when healthy. He also will only be 31, and hopefully back and shoulder pain free, when the 2009 season begins. A solid campaign this coming year could net Beane quality young talent in a potential trade next off-season.
Teams looking for a utility man will probably first inquire about Willy Aybar of Tampa Bay following his strong performance as a fill-in at 3B when Evan Longoria went down. Aybar’s .353 postseason batting average and pair of HRs in the ALCS drove up his market value, but GM Andrew Friedman should be inclined to keep Aybar, who is valuable all around the infield.
When Willy Aybar does not work out, teams should turn their attention to the Angels’ infield as Brandon Wood is primed to emerge as the everyday shortstop, finally adding some pop to the position that has been manned by Willy’s brother Erick Aybar, fellow utility man Maicer Izturis, and even Chone Figgins. Aybar and Izturis will be expendable now that Wood is here to stay, and should the Angels land a third baseman such as Joe Crede, Figgins will fall into the expendable category, as well. Erick Aybar and Izturis are basically equals offensively, but Aybar (24) is four years younger and is more likely to see his offensive numbers improve in the coming years. Izturis (.967 career fielding %, .991 at SS in 2008) is clearly the better defender, especially at shortstop, and could remain a solid utility man for the Angels. I see Aybar as having the better chance of being dealt to compete for a starting job with a lower end, smaller market team searching for a SS, such as the Orioles, Giants, or Pirates, should Jack Wilson be dealt. The Cardinals, Twins, and White Sox could be interested later in the off-season if nothing else turns up. The Braves could become interested if SS Yunel Escobar is included in a deal and the Padres should keep an eye on Aybar if they deal struggling SS Khalil Greene. Aybar could draw more interest than most people think. The market is thin beyond aging vets Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, and Edgar Renteria. David Eckstein and Adam Everett are not legitimate contributors. Finally, it pains me to say that Omar Vizquel, one of the all-time greats at shortstop might not report to spring training for a 21st season in 2009 as teams can no longer afford his bat in the lineup. The 41 year old’s glove work is still as good as it ever was (.993 fielding % in 2008), but Vizquel, along with his .984 career fielding %, has most likely come to the end of the line.
I like that the Rangers picked up Hank Blalock's '09 option. This pushes Milton Bradley out the door, as Blalock should now DH. The only spot for Chris Davis is at 3B now, if the Rangers want Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the everyday lineup. I think it is hard to keep a 23-year-old, 6'4/ 235 man crouched behind the plate because it risks shortening his career with knee injuries, and Max Ramirez will start everyday at Triple-A if not included in a trade for a pitcher. Gerald Laird is under contract until after the 2010 season and will be their catcher, while 24-year old Taylor Teagarden could back up. The Marlins, who have a knack for replenishing their starting pitching as well as finding young, cheap talent, could unload a starter to the Rangers for Ramirez. A deal involving Ricky Nolasco or Anibal Sanchez, Rick VandenHurk, and Cody Ross could net the Fish the backstop along with pair of mid-level pitching prospects, such as Derek Holland and John Bannister. Neftali Perez, currently at Double-A Frisco for the Rangers, should not be going anywhere.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Off-Season Speculation: Part 1 - Pitching
The Free Agent Market
With Game 1 of the World Series upon us, it is not too early to begin off-season free agent and potential trade speculation. For the second consecutive season, the Mets’ bullpen successfully barred the franchise from reaching the playoffs after the team led in the division in the dying weeks of the season. With closer Billy Wagner on the shelf for at least the majority of the 2009 season and the bullpen on the verge of an overhaul, look for the big-spending Mets to make the hardest push for free-agent closer Fancisco Rodriguez. With options such as established eighth inning man Scott Shields and developing, hard-throwing right hander Jose Arredondo coming onto the scene in the late innings, it would be wise for the Angels to pass on Rodriguez, who will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent, allowing the Angels to acquire either a first or second round pick in the 2009 First Year Player Draft from the team that signs Rodriguez. Also, the surrender of K-Rod leaves the franchise with more free money to retain the services of newly acquired 1B, and free agent-to-be Mark Teixeira.
Rodriguez, who set a Major League record this past season with 62 saves, will certainly command a watershed contract from the teams that court him during the winter meetings. Last year, current Reds closer Francisco Cordero signed a 4 year/ $46 million deal. At the time of the signing, Cordero was 32. Rodriguez is only 26. When he inks his deal this winter, the number of years should surpass the four received by Cordero. Rodriguez has also pitched in a key closer role for a World Series Champion team and has three seasons of 50 or more saves to his credit. Cordero has not pitched in the post-season and has never reached the 50 save plateau. Furthermore, Rodriguez owns a career 2.35 ERA, to Cordero’s 3.29 mark, and K-Rod has a converted saves for his career at an 86.3% (208/241) success rate, while Cordero’s success rate is significantly lower at 80.2% (211/263). The extensions reached between the Phillies and closer Brad Lidge and between Minnesota and their closer Joe Nathan do two things to the value of K-Rod’s approaching contract. It increases the competition and demand for an established closer, because they represent two top flight closers that will not be on the open market. The 3 year/$37.5 million deal received by Lidge averages $12.5 million per year, more than the $11.5 per given to Cordero and the $11.75 million given to Nathan. Only Mariano Rivera, preparing to enter the second season of a three year deal, averages $15 million annually. This could be the average value K-Rod and his agent, Paul Kinzer, will seek. Let the bidding begin at 4 years and $46 million with the ceiling of $15 million annually for a starting value of 5 years/$75 million. I expect a contract somewhere in the middle between 4 years/$52 million and 5 years/$65 million. Despite his dominance, however, K-Rod will remain beatable. Keep in mind the fact that he blew 7 saves this season, and he throws a very high number of curve balls. To this point, he has avoided severe shoulder and elbow issues, but they might not be far off as he enters his upper twenties. Omar Minaya, beware.
High risk GMs in with big market teams looking to solidify their starting rotations will keep and eye on Blue Jays’ starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, who could exercise the famous opt-out clause that kicks in after this season, the third in his 5 year/$55 million deal. Any baseball writer who can name big market teams will tell you that the list of potential suitors could include the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Angels are absent from this list simply because their rotation is set with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, John Garland, Joe Saunders, and Jared Weaver.
Given the success enjoyed by C.C. Sabathia in the National League this season, I would not be surprised in the least to see him stay. In the East, the Phillies do not seem realistic contenders in the looming sweepstakes, nor do the Mets who already have Johan Santana’s mega-contract to deal with. The Braves do not seem likely, as GM Frank Wren appears to want to build around youth, both home grown and prospects acquired via trade. The Marlins have the lowest payroll in baseball, they are out. The Nationals would do better to focus on executing the fundamentals of baseball, rather than signing a big free agent.
In the Central, the Cubs will have a full rotation, especially if Ryan Dempster is re-signed and remains in the rotation. If so, the Cubs, who picked up Rich Harden’s $7 million option for 2009, will enter next year with Carlos Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis under contract. Even lefty Sean Marshall, Chad Gaudin, and rookie Jeff Samardzija could potentially be starting options. The Astros appear to be focused primarily on upgrading their pitching staff through a trade for Jake Peavy, although nothing is for sure yet. The Brewers should make a push to retain Ben Sheets or reel in Burnett if he bails on his current deal. If neither happens, they must piece together a trade Number 1 or 2 starter to head the rotation with Yovanni Gallardo, but this is not likely due to the damage inflicted by the Indians on the Brewers’ farm system in the Sabathia trade that allowed the Tribe to snatch Matt LaPorta. The Cardinals are probably out with their signing of Kyle Lohse for 4 years and $41 million. Their rotation next year will include Lohse, Adam Wainwright, Todd Wellemeyer, 22 year old lefty prospect Jaime Garcia, and either Joel Piniero or a maybe even a healthy Chris Carpenter. The Pirates and Reds have no chance of landing any of the Big 3 available starters (Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett). The addition of Sabathia to either of those teams would do little more than ensure that the club will not finish in last place.
Out West, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and future star Max Scherzer will lead the D-Backs’ rotation. The Giants are bogged down with Barry “the Bust” Zito’s contract and expensive deals for young righties Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain on the horizon, unless Cain is dealt for a top position player. The Rockies, despite their rotation woes, are not in the financial position to bring in an expensive free agent starter, as GM Dan O’Dowd’s preference is to choose from in-house candidates. The Padres could be looking to unload Jake Peavy in a rebuilding effort and will not attempt to sign a big name starter in the process of dumping one. That leaves the Dodgers in the NL. They are coming off a slightly above average regular season in a weak division and a run to the NLCS. They will look to add to the pitching staff that includes an aging Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda, and young lefty Clayton Kershaw. Jason Schmidt has been done for a few years due to incessant shoulder and arm issues, and Greg Maddux, if he is re-signed, simply will not contribute the way Sabathia will. To identify the front runner in the Sabathia bidding, I say he is a Dodger next year, given that he stays in the National League. This will leave the Yankees and Red Sox the primary suitors trying to woo Sheets and Burnett. Sheets missed the end of the year with elbow discomfort, in much the same manner as Tim Hudson went down. Could Tommy John claim Sheets too? Burnett was healthy this year, made 34 starts, and led the AL in strikeouts – a prime formula for seeking a pay raise. In his career, he has either enjoyed tremendous success or endured a variety of injuries. He has been limited to 25 starts or fewer in a season five times since 2000.
Trades
On the trade front, Billy Beane will again be a popular man during the Winter Meetings. With the market for closers drying up via contract extensions, teams looking to acquire an established closer could inquire about 25 year old Oakland right hander Huston Street. He has two years of salary arbitration ahead of him, meaning that any team that would potentially acquire him this offseason would have control of Street through at least the 2010 season. Street endured a down year this past season, but still owns a career ERA of 2.88, a K:BB of better than 3:1., fewer career hits than innings pitched, and a WHIP of only 1.07. The Mets could be potential suitors if Francisco Rodriguez does not sign there. With the late season emergence of rookie Brad Ziegler in the closer role for Oakland, RHP’s Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine will prepare to handle the seventh and eighth innings. The A’s could also swing a trade this winter with their glut of Major League ready, left-handed starting pitchers: Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Dan Meyer, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez. Left hander Josh Outman, 24, was acquired from Philadelphia in the Joe Blanton deal and has starting experience, but will contribute more in the bullpen as the situational lefty should the A’s decline 38 year old Alan Embree’s 2009 club option. Also in the rotation are newly acquired right hander Sean Gallagher and Justin Duchscherer, who is coming off a career year. If the A’s are looking to deal one or more of their starting pitchers, the Astros, Padres, and White Sox could be potential matches.
In a possible Peavy trade between the Padres and Astros, the Padres will likely demand a package of a center fielder and two pitching prospects, similar to that demanded by the Minnesota Twins when they were peddling Johan Santana. Peavy, evidently, has a desire to remain in the National League, and has a no trade clause he would need to waive. If the Padres were to trade Peavy, which does not make sense because he is under contract with the organization through 2012 and is a perennial Cy Young candidate, the deal could center around CF Michael Bourn, Class-AA lefty starter Polin Trinidad, and righty prospect Brad James, who ended the year on the 40-man roster. The Astros’ minor league system has a dreadful dearth of talent, especially on the pitching front. I hope San Diego GM Kevin Towers is not in too much of a hurry to make this trade, even though Peavy might want to pitch in Houston with his buddy Roy Oswalt.
Another top flight young pitcher who could be on the move this winter is Matt Cain of the Giants. He is a young hard throwing right hander with excellent stuff and, in all three of his full big league seasons, Cain made at least 31 starts, topped 200 innings in both 2007 and 2008, and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. Cain is a dominant pitcher who will continue to develop into a solid ace. The only reason the Giants should consider moving him would be to net a top position player in return, is that Tim Lincecum will anchor the staff and stands to contribute more than Cain in the future. If the Giants do move Cain, they should be looking for a long term upgrade at any one of the infield positions. A late inning reliever will also be necessary if the team wants to compete for a post-season spot in the coming years.
Finally, it is that time of year for the Marlins who will begin next season with Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, and Andrew Miller in the rotation. Nicky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Scott Olsen are the three others competing for the last two spots. Nolasco performed best out of the trio, and Olsen has been healthier and more durable than Sanchez. I would not be surprised in the least to see the Marlins part ways with one or more of the later three, as the club never ceases to amaze me with the young pitching talent it continues to produce at the Major League level. Twenty four year old lefty Eulogio De La Cruz (Class-AAA, 13-8/ 4.34 ERA/ 118 K in 25 starts) is my pick be the next Marlins starter to make an impact on the rotation should a combination of injuries and trades occur.
With Game 1 of the World Series upon us, it is not too early to begin off-season free agent and potential trade speculation. For the second consecutive season, the Mets’ bullpen successfully barred the franchise from reaching the playoffs after the team led in the division in the dying weeks of the season. With closer Billy Wagner on the shelf for at least the majority of the 2009 season and the bullpen on the verge of an overhaul, look for the big-spending Mets to make the hardest push for free-agent closer Fancisco Rodriguez. With options such as established eighth inning man Scott Shields and developing, hard-throwing right hander Jose Arredondo coming onto the scene in the late innings, it would be wise for the Angels to pass on Rodriguez, who will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent, allowing the Angels to acquire either a first or second round pick in the 2009 First Year Player Draft from the team that signs Rodriguez. Also, the surrender of K-Rod leaves the franchise with more free money to retain the services of newly acquired 1B, and free agent-to-be Mark Teixeira.
Rodriguez, who set a Major League record this past season with 62 saves, will certainly command a watershed contract from the teams that court him during the winter meetings. Last year, current Reds closer Francisco Cordero signed a 4 year/ $46 million deal. At the time of the signing, Cordero was 32. Rodriguez is only 26. When he inks his deal this winter, the number of years should surpass the four received by Cordero. Rodriguez has also pitched in a key closer role for a World Series Champion team and has three seasons of 50 or more saves to his credit. Cordero has not pitched in the post-season and has never reached the 50 save plateau. Furthermore, Rodriguez owns a career 2.35 ERA, to Cordero’s 3.29 mark, and K-Rod has a converted saves for his career at an 86.3% (208/241) success rate, while Cordero’s success rate is significantly lower at 80.2% (211/263). The extensions reached between the Phillies and closer Brad Lidge and between Minnesota and their closer Joe Nathan do two things to the value of K-Rod’s approaching contract. It increases the competition and demand for an established closer, because they represent two top flight closers that will not be on the open market. The 3 year/$37.5 million deal received by Lidge averages $12.5 million per year, more than the $11.5 per given to Cordero and the $11.75 million given to Nathan. Only Mariano Rivera, preparing to enter the second season of a three year deal, averages $15 million annually. This could be the average value K-Rod and his agent, Paul Kinzer, will seek. Let the bidding begin at 4 years and $46 million with the ceiling of $15 million annually for a starting value of 5 years/$75 million. I expect a contract somewhere in the middle between 4 years/$52 million and 5 years/$65 million. Despite his dominance, however, K-Rod will remain beatable. Keep in mind the fact that he blew 7 saves this season, and he throws a very high number of curve balls. To this point, he has avoided severe shoulder and elbow issues, but they might not be far off as he enters his upper twenties. Omar Minaya, beware.
High risk GMs in with big market teams looking to solidify their starting rotations will keep and eye on Blue Jays’ starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, who could exercise the famous opt-out clause that kicks in after this season, the third in his 5 year/$55 million deal. Any baseball writer who can name big market teams will tell you that the list of potential suitors could include the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Angels are absent from this list simply because their rotation is set with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, John Garland, Joe Saunders, and Jared Weaver.
Given the success enjoyed by C.C. Sabathia in the National League this season, I would not be surprised in the least to see him stay. In the East, the Phillies do not seem realistic contenders in the looming sweepstakes, nor do the Mets who already have Johan Santana’s mega-contract to deal with. The Braves do not seem likely, as GM Frank Wren appears to want to build around youth, both home grown and prospects acquired via trade. The Marlins have the lowest payroll in baseball, they are out. The Nationals would do better to focus on executing the fundamentals of baseball, rather than signing a big free agent.
In the Central, the Cubs will have a full rotation, especially if Ryan Dempster is re-signed and remains in the rotation. If so, the Cubs, who picked up Rich Harden’s $7 million option for 2009, will enter next year with Carlos Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis under contract. Even lefty Sean Marshall, Chad Gaudin, and rookie Jeff Samardzija could potentially be starting options. The Astros appear to be focused primarily on upgrading their pitching staff through a trade for Jake Peavy, although nothing is for sure yet. The Brewers should make a push to retain Ben Sheets or reel in Burnett if he bails on his current deal. If neither happens, they must piece together a trade Number 1 or 2 starter to head the rotation with Yovanni Gallardo, but this is not likely due to the damage inflicted by the Indians on the Brewers’ farm system in the Sabathia trade that allowed the Tribe to snatch Matt LaPorta. The Cardinals are probably out with their signing of Kyle Lohse for 4 years and $41 million. Their rotation next year will include Lohse, Adam Wainwright, Todd Wellemeyer, 22 year old lefty prospect Jaime Garcia, and either Joel Piniero or a maybe even a healthy Chris Carpenter. The Pirates and Reds have no chance of landing any of the Big 3 available starters (Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett). The addition of Sabathia to either of those teams would do little more than ensure that the club will not finish in last place.
Out West, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and future star Max Scherzer will lead the D-Backs’ rotation. The Giants are bogged down with Barry “the Bust” Zito’s contract and expensive deals for young righties Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain on the horizon, unless Cain is dealt for a top position player. The Rockies, despite their rotation woes, are not in the financial position to bring in an expensive free agent starter, as GM Dan O’Dowd’s preference is to choose from in-house candidates. The Padres could be looking to unload Jake Peavy in a rebuilding effort and will not attempt to sign a big name starter in the process of dumping one. That leaves the Dodgers in the NL. They are coming off a slightly above average regular season in a weak division and a run to the NLCS. They will look to add to the pitching staff that includes an aging Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda, and young lefty Clayton Kershaw. Jason Schmidt has been done for a few years due to incessant shoulder and arm issues, and Greg Maddux, if he is re-signed, simply will not contribute the way Sabathia will. To identify the front runner in the Sabathia bidding, I say he is a Dodger next year, given that he stays in the National League. This will leave the Yankees and Red Sox the primary suitors trying to woo Sheets and Burnett. Sheets missed the end of the year with elbow discomfort, in much the same manner as Tim Hudson went down. Could Tommy John claim Sheets too? Burnett was healthy this year, made 34 starts, and led the AL in strikeouts – a prime formula for seeking a pay raise. In his career, he has either enjoyed tremendous success or endured a variety of injuries. He has been limited to 25 starts or fewer in a season five times since 2000.
Trades
On the trade front, Billy Beane will again be a popular man during the Winter Meetings. With the market for closers drying up via contract extensions, teams looking to acquire an established closer could inquire about 25 year old Oakland right hander Huston Street. He has two years of salary arbitration ahead of him, meaning that any team that would potentially acquire him this offseason would have control of Street through at least the 2010 season. Street endured a down year this past season, but still owns a career ERA of 2.88, a K:BB of better than 3:1., fewer career hits than innings pitched, and a WHIP of only 1.07. The Mets could be potential suitors if Francisco Rodriguez does not sign there. With the late season emergence of rookie Brad Ziegler in the closer role for Oakland, RHP’s Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine will prepare to handle the seventh and eighth innings. The A’s could also swing a trade this winter with their glut of Major League ready, left-handed starting pitchers: Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Dan Meyer, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez. Left hander Josh Outman, 24, was acquired from Philadelphia in the Joe Blanton deal and has starting experience, but will contribute more in the bullpen as the situational lefty should the A’s decline 38 year old Alan Embree’s 2009 club option. Also in the rotation are newly acquired right hander Sean Gallagher and Justin Duchscherer, who is coming off a career year. If the A’s are looking to deal one or more of their starting pitchers, the Astros, Padres, and White Sox could be potential matches.
In a possible Peavy trade between the Padres and Astros, the Padres will likely demand a package of a center fielder and two pitching prospects, similar to that demanded by the Minnesota Twins when they were peddling Johan Santana. Peavy, evidently, has a desire to remain in the National League, and has a no trade clause he would need to waive. If the Padres were to trade Peavy, which does not make sense because he is under contract with the organization through 2012 and is a perennial Cy Young candidate, the deal could center around CF Michael Bourn, Class-AA lefty starter Polin Trinidad, and righty prospect Brad James, who ended the year on the 40-man roster. The Astros’ minor league system has a dreadful dearth of talent, especially on the pitching front. I hope San Diego GM Kevin Towers is not in too much of a hurry to make this trade, even though Peavy might want to pitch in Houston with his buddy Roy Oswalt.
Another top flight young pitcher who could be on the move this winter is Matt Cain of the Giants. He is a young hard throwing right hander with excellent stuff and, in all three of his full big league seasons, Cain made at least 31 starts, topped 200 innings in both 2007 and 2008, and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. Cain is a dominant pitcher who will continue to develop into a solid ace. The only reason the Giants should consider moving him would be to net a top position player in return, is that Tim Lincecum will anchor the staff and stands to contribute more than Cain in the future. If the Giants do move Cain, they should be looking for a long term upgrade at any one of the infield positions. A late inning reliever will also be necessary if the team wants to compete for a post-season spot in the coming years.
Finally, it is that time of year for the Marlins who will begin next season with Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, and Andrew Miller in the rotation. Nicky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Scott Olsen are the three others competing for the last two spots. Nolasco performed best out of the trio, and Olsen has been healthier and more durable than Sanchez. I would not be surprised in the least to see the Marlins part ways with one or more of the later three, as the club never ceases to amaze me with the young pitching talent it continues to produce at the Major League level. Twenty four year old lefty Eulogio De La Cruz (Class-AAA, 13-8/ 4.34 ERA/ 118 K in 25 starts) is my pick be the next Marlins starter to make an impact on the rotation should a combination of injuries and trades occur.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Most Valuable Brewer
My vote for the 2008 NL MVP might not count for a whole lot, but it goes, nonetheless, to a Milwaukee Brewer who has carried his team throughout the year, not just through 13 times (through 9/17/08) on the mound. Ryan Braun is hands down the National League’s Most Valuable Player. Although C.C. Sabathia’s contributions to the club since his arrival in early July have been extraordinary and well documented, Braun’s offensive production has allowed the team to challenge the Cubs in the NL Central and, to this point, maintain at least a share of first place in the Wild Card race. Sabathia’s run as the Brewers’ new ace has lasted a little over two months, and, to the dismay of the faltering Brewers, is bound to regress. Since he, similarly to Carlos Delgado, failed to contribute to his current team from April through the end of June, I remove him from MVP contention.
Many are making a case for Carlos Delgado to take home the coveted award, but the truth is that Delgado was a no more than a detriment to the Mets’ offense for the first three full months of the six month baseball season, batting at a .229 clip entering July 1. An explosion in the month of July appears to have saved his season and offensive production. In 26 July games, the Mets’ first baseman hit .357 with 9 homers and 24 RBIs, boosting his season average to .260 by the month’s end. I have watched a number of televised Mets games over the past several months, and on each telecast, the broadcasters invariably provide the viewers with Delgado’s offensive numbers since his two homer, 9 RBI performance in the first game of the cross-town double-header with the Yankees on June 27. Since that time, Delgado has gone 81 for 273, hitting .297 with 24 homers and 69 RBIs. These are impressive numbers, considering the fact that Delgado hit just .248 in the month of August. Essentially, with Delgado’s strong month of July, streaky August that saw him hit safely in less than one quarter of his at-bats, and a fruitful half of September, a .265 hitter for the year is in serious contention for the NL MVP Award. His batting average has not eclipsed .267 since the season’s 12th game! Cubs’ 3B Aramis Ramirez is hitting .280 (15 points above Delgado), with an equal RBI total of 105, and 89 runs scored (4 more than Delgado). Ramirez’s team boasts the best record in the NL and holds first place in the National League’s toughest division by 8.0 games. But in a lineup with Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Geovany Soto, Mark DeRosa, and others who are constantly on base forcing opposing pitchers to throw strikes, Ramirez sees more than a fair number of pitches to hit. Although he is well worthy of high consideration, Ramirez has not stood out as the biggest impact player in the lineup.
Lance Berkman’s .328 average, 28 HR, 100 RBIs, and 110 R are extraordinary. So are his 16 steals in 20 attempts and his ability to hit right (.284, 7 HR) and left (.341, 21 HR) handed. Where would his team be without him? Probably jostling for third place in the central division with the injury wrought Cardinals, just above the dreadful Reds, and the Pirates, who are closing the book on their 16th consecutive losing season. Oh wait, that’s exactly where they are now.
Perhaps the strongest MVP candidate in the National League is Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez, who is hitting .293 with 30 homers, 63 RBIs, 115 runs, and 33 steals. He has, however, been caught stealing 12 times, as he continues to learn the art of base stealing to improve on his raw speed. Ramirez has also committed 21 errors at the game’s most crucial position. Let’s compare him with Ryan Braun for a moment, discounting the RBI totals (Ramirez – 63, Braun – 97), because Ramirez bats leadoff for the Marlins. Braun is hitting .290 with 35 homers, 81 runs scored. He hits in fourth in the lineup and provides protection behind free-swinging lefty slugger Prince Fielder. Because of Ramirez’s spot in the lineup, his run total will invariably be higher than that of Braun, who has also contributed 14 steals. Defensively, Braun has not committed an error and has 9 outfield assists from left field, a position he is still learning following a switch from third base to begin this year. Where would the Marlins be without Hanley Ramirez? Third place in the NL East, not contending for a playoff spot, ahead of the Braves and Nationals. Sound familiar? Where would the Brewers be if not for Ryan Braun? The Brewers certainly could not replace his bat in the lineup. Current fourth outfielder Gabe Kapler is having a fine year in his role, but cannot match Braun’s offensive production.
If there were a July 1 – September 16, 2008 MVP Award, Delgado wins in a landslide. But for the six month long, 2008 Major League Baseball season, Ryan Braun is my choice for NL MVP.
Many are making a case for Carlos Delgado to take home the coveted award, but the truth is that Delgado was a no more than a detriment to the Mets’ offense for the first three full months of the six month baseball season, batting at a .229 clip entering July 1. An explosion in the month of July appears to have saved his season and offensive production. In 26 July games, the Mets’ first baseman hit .357 with 9 homers and 24 RBIs, boosting his season average to .260 by the month’s end. I have watched a number of televised Mets games over the past several months, and on each telecast, the broadcasters invariably provide the viewers with Delgado’s offensive numbers since his two homer, 9 RBI performance in the first game of the cross-town double-header with the Yankees on June 27. Since that time, Delgado has gone 81 for 273, hitting .297 with 24 homers and 69 RBIs. These are impressive numbers, considering the fact that Delgado hit just .248 in the month of August. Essentially, with Delgado’s strong month of July, streaky August that saw him hit safely in less than one quarter of his at-bats, and a fruitful half of September, a .265 hitter for the year is in serious contention for the NL MVP Award. His batting average has not eclipsed .267 since the season’s 12th game! Cubs’ 3B Aramis Ramirez is hitting .280 (15 points above Delgado), with an equal RBI total of 105, and 89 runs scored (4 more than Delgado). Ramirez’s team boasts the best record in the NL and holds first place in the National League’s toughest division by 8.0 games. But in a lineup with Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, Geovany Soto, Mark DeRosa, and others who are constantly on base forcing opposing pitchers to throw strikes, Ramirez sees more than a fair number of pitches to hit. Although he is well worthy of high consideration, Ramirez has not stood out as the biggest impact player in the lineup.
Lance Berkman’s .328 average, 28 HR, 100 RBIs, and 110 R are extraordinary. So are his 16 steals in 20 attempts and his ability to hit right (.284, 7 HR) and left (.341, 21 HR) handed. Where would his team be without him? Probably jostling for third place in the central division with the injury wrought Cardinals, just above the dreadful Reds, and the Pirates, who are closing the book on their 16th consecutive losing season. Oh wait, that’s exactly where they are now.
Perhaps the strongest MVP candidate in the National League is Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez, who is hitting .293 with 30 homers, 63 RBIs, 115 runs, and 33 steals. He has, however, been caught stealing 12 times, as he continues to learn the art of base stealing to improve on his raw speed. Ramirez has also committed 21 errors at the game’s most crucial position. Let’s compare him with Ryan Braun for a moment, discounting the RBI totals (Ramirez – 63, Braun – 97), because Ramirez bats leadoff for the Marlins. Braun is hitting .290 with 35 homers, 81 runs scored. He hits in fourth in the lineup and provides protection behind free-swinging lefty slugger Prince Fielder. Because of Ramirez’s spot in the lineup, his run total will invariably be higher than that of Braun, who has also contributed 14 steals. Defensively, Braun has not committed an error and has 9 outfield assists from left field, a position he is still learning following a switch from third base to begin this year. Where would the Marlins be without Hanley Ramirez? Third place in the NL East, not contending for a playoff spot, ahead of the Braves and Nationals. Sound familiar? Where would the Brewers be if not for Ryan Braun? The Brewers certainly could not replace his bat in the lineup. Current fourth outfielder Gabe Kapler is having a fine year in his role, but cannot match Braun’s offensive production.
If there were a July 1 – September 16, 2008 MVP Award, Delgado wins in a landslide. But for the six month long, 2008 Major League Baseball season, Ryan Braun is my choice for NL MVP.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Successless in Seattle
The Seattle Mariners are the worst team in Major League Baseball, and it is no secret. It’s more like a joke. The only continuity exhibited by the AL West basement dwellers thus far has been that the lineup and pitching staff have been consistently bad. Only once over the past decade have the Mariners won the American League West Division. Although similar droughts are somewhat common around the League, recall that such a streak lacking accomplishment is less understandable in the only division consisting of just four teams.
Current Cubs manager Lou Piniella led the team to their last division championship. Since his departure following the 2002 season, four different men have managed in Seattle. Jim Riggleman serves as this year’s mid-season appointee and finds himself stuck with the underperforming mess that is the Mariners’ roster. He succeeds John McLaren, whose outstanding inadequacy lead to his firing about a year after his appointment as successor to Mike Hargrove during the 2007 season. Riggleman is the third consecutive manager in Seattle to not begin and end a season in the same position. Mel Stottlemyre is in only his first season as pitching coach with the M’s, replacing Rafael Chaves. Chaves was fired following the 2007 season along with the entire 2007 coaching staff, except McLaren, who did not last much longer.
A recent history of unfavorable acquisitions has hurt the Mariners. The off-season signing of former Twins right-handed starter Carlos Silva has proven counter-productive. The Mariners won the Silva sweepstakes, agreeing to pay him $48 million through the 2011 season. Silva has been ineffective when not on the DL, going 4-14 with a 6.53 ERA, thus far.
Also following the 2007 season, the Mariners’ front office dealt for former Baltimore lefty starter Eric Bedard, who is currently enduring his second DL stint of the year. His current stint, caused by left shoulder stiffness, is retroactive to July 5th. To get Bedard and the 15 starts he made for $7 million, the Mariners gave up top OF prospect Adam Jones and a quartet of pitchers, including Orioles currently injured closer George Sherrill. The loss of Jones will prove in the near future to be a blow to and an outfield that stands to lose Raul Ibanez to free agency following this season.
Jeremy Reed has played respectably in Center Field, but through 75 games has shown that he lacks power (2 HR), run production (24 RBI/ 20 runs scored), and contribution on the basepaths (1 SB in 3 attempts). Also, 26 year-old RF Mike Morse is currently on the shelf and hasn’t been used in any sort of a regular role since the 2005 campaign, in which he played 72 games for Seattle.
Smooth swinging, current fourth outfielder Wladimir Balentien is just 24 and has the potential to be an everyday outfielder, but will need to improve on his .200 batting average. Beyond him, only Michael Wilson, 25, (.276/27 HR/84 RBIs/ 9 SB) in and Gregory Halman, 21, (.277/ 10/ 30/ 8 SB) appear to have hope for bright futures in the Mariners’ outfield. Although both have high ceilings, it is a stretch to say that either will have a major impact in Seattle in 2009, as both are currently playing for Double-A West Tenn. Earlier this season at Single-A High Desert Halman stole 23 bases in 24 attempts.
Jose Vidro was released on August 13, three days after utilityman Willie Bloomquist went down with a hamstring injury. It is bad news when a career second-baseman with a capacity to play first base and DH in the absence of a utility-man is no longer valuable to a last place team. So ends the injury plagued saga of Jose Vidro.
The acquisition of Richie Sexson prior to the 2005 season is no exception in the trend of bad signings by the Mariners. Sexson has a terribly high career strikeout rate, punching out in more than one quarter of his career at-bats (1313 K’s in 4928 AB). He also sported only a .244 clip in his three and a half seasons as a Mariner, before the team released him due to a tragic lack of production. The Yankees signed him for about three weeks and disposed of his services in the same way after Sexson contributed just 7 hits in 28 at-bats.
Behind the plate, the Mariners locked up 32 year old Kenji Johjima for three years (beginning the 2008 season) and $24 million. Since that time, Johjima has exhibited some difficulty in handling the pitching staff when calling games. He has a tendency to have his pitchers “pitch backwards” to opposing hitters, that is, attack the hitter with breaking pitches at the beginning of the at-bat. Johjima’s lack of production (.209/ 5 HR/ 26 RBIs) warrants the current platoon his is in with lefty swinging 25 year-old backup Jeff Clement (.227/5/23) and 36 year old Jamie Burke.
At the hot corner, the Mariners inked Adrian Beltre to a 5 year/ $64 million deal one day after the Sexson signing in December of 2004. One must wonder about the collective intelligence of the Seattle front office committing so much to a player who has an season vastly uncharacteristic of his abilities. In 2004 for the Dodgers, Beltre hit .334 with 48 home runs, 121 RBIs, all career highs. In the two previous seasons, 2002 and 2003, Beltre batted .257 and .240, respectively. For his career entering his contract with the Mariners, Beltre was mediocre. Seattle signed a .334 hitter with great power. But due to what I have come to know as “regression to the mean,” got a man who was a career mediocre .274 hitter at the time with 25 home run pop in his bat. I define regression to the mean as a foreseeable and inexorable return of a veteran player to his average career performance statistics within a single standard deviation of the mean for the season(s) following a career year. Following his torrid 2004 campaign, Beltre has not hit above .276. He also has not eclipsed even 26 homers, 100 RBIs, or 200 hits during any other season at any time during his career. If I could ever offer any advice to any GM, I would say to beware the career years of a player, because they almost invariably overshadow underachieving career stats and coincide with a contract year.
The signing of Jarrod Washburn is a prime example of the Mariners overpaying for a historical underachiever coming off of a career year. The Mariners over invested in the mediocre left-hander, inking him to a contract worth four years and $37 million. He is nearing the end of his third season with the team, and during his time in Seattle, the 34-year old has not finished with a winning record, nor has he succeeded in keeping his ERA any lower that 4.32 for the year. In 2005, before signing with Seattle, Washburn made 29 starts for the Angels and boasted a 3.20 ERA. This is the season in which he earned his big payday in Seattle, not in the previous two seasons in which Washburn finished with ERA’s of 4.43 and 4.64, respectively. In his 11th Major League season, Washburn has allowed more hits than innings pitched in his career, has only recorded five seasons of 100 or more strikeouts, and has a career record of 98-100. Washburn has a career ERA of 4.13, nearly a full run per nine innings higher than he had in his contract season of 2005. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN. Hoping a player will repeat his performance of the previous year is a mistake. Looking at the performance trends of his career before signing him, is a necessity. Also, following a player’s signing of a long-term, guaranteed contract, the incentive to perform drops considerably.
So get used to the AL West Basement, Mariner fans. Finding fault in the Angels' lineup is no easy task, the A's continue to reload each year with young talent, and the Rangers' high-powered offense will continue to improve, especially with the emergence of 1B slugger Chris Davis, and Rookie OF David Murphy. I predict at least one more last place finish in 2009 before the M's make any kind of a push for third place.
Current Cubs manager Lou Piniella led the team to their last division championship. Since his departure following the 2002 season, four different men have managed in Seattle. Jim Riggleman serves as this year’s mid-season appointee and finds himself stuck with the underperforming mess that is the Mariners’ roster. He succeeds John McLaren, whose outstanding inadequacy lead to his firing about a year after his appointment as successor to Mike Hargrove during the 2007 season. Riggleman is the third consecutive manager in Seattle to not begin and end a season in the same position. Mel Stottlemyre is in only his first season as pitching coach with the M’s, replacing Rafael Chaves. Chaves was fired following the 2007 season along with the entire 2007 coaching staff, except McLaren, who did not last much longer.
A recent history of unfavorable acquisitions has hurt the Mariners. The off-season signing of former Twins right-handed starter Carlos Silva has proven counter-productive. The Mariners won the Silva sweepstakes, agreeing to pay him $48 million through the 2011 season. Silva has been ineffective when not on the DL, going 4-14 with a 6.53 ERA, thus far.
Also following the 2007 season, the Mariners’ front office dealt for former Baltimore lefty starter Eric Bedard, who is currently enduring his second DL stint of the year. His current stint, caused by left shoulder stiffness, is retroactive to July 5th. To get Bedard and the 15 starts he made for $7 million, the Mariners gave up top OF prospect Adam Jones and a quartet of pitchers, including Orioles currently injured closer George Sherrill. The loss of Jones will prove in the near future to be a blow to and an outfield that stands to lose Raul Ibanez to free agency following this season.
Jeremy Reed has played respectably in Center Field, but through 75 games has shown that he lacks power (2 HR), run production (24 RBI/ 20 runs scored), and contribution on the basepaths (1 SB in 3 attempts). Also, 26 year-old RF Mike Morse is currently on the shelf and hasn’t been used in any sort of a regular role since the 2005 campaign, in which he played 72 games for Seattle.
Smooth swinging, current fourth outfielder Wladimir Balentien is just 24 and has the potential to be an everyday outfielder, but will need to improve on his .200 batting average. Beyond him, only Michael Wilson, 25, (.276/27 HR/84 RBIs/ 9 SB) in and Gregory Halman, 21, (.277/ 10/ 30/ 8 SB) appear to have hope for bright futures in the Mariners’ outfield. Although both have high ceilings, it is a stretch to say that either will have a major impact in Seattle in 2009, as both are currently playing for Double-A West Tenn. Earlier this season at Single-A High Desert Halman stole 23 bases in 24 attempts.
Jose Vidro was released on August 13, three days after utilityman Willie Bloomquist went down with a hamstring injury. It is bad news when a career second-baseman with a capacity to play first base and DH in the absence of a utility-man is no longer valuable to a last place team. So ends the injury plagued saga of Jose Vidro.
The acquisition of Richie Sexson prior to the 2005 season is no exception in the trend of bad signings by the Mariners. Sexson has a terribly high career strikeout rate, punching out in more than one quarter of his career at-bats (1313 K’s in 4928 AB). He also sported only a .244 clip in his three and a half seasons as a Mariner, before the team released him due to a tragic lack of production. The Yankees signed him for about three weeks and disposed of his services in the same way after Sexson contributed just 7 hits in 28 at-bats.
Behind the plate, the Mariners locked up 32 year old Kenji Johjima for three years (beginning the 2008 season) and $24 million. Since that time, Johjima has exhibited some difficulty in handling the pitching staff when calling games. He has a tendency to have his pitchers “pitch backwards” to opposing hitters, that is, attack the hitter with breaking pitches at the beginning of the at-bat. Johjima’s lack of production (.209/ 5 HR/ 26 RBIs) warrants the current platoon his is in with lefty swinging 25 year-old backup Jeff Clement (.227/5/23) and 36 year old Jamie Burke.
At the hot corner, the Mariners inked Adrian Beltre to a 5 year/ $64 million deal one day after the Sexson signing in December of 2004. One must wonder about the collective intelligence of the Seattle front office committing so much to a player who has an season vastly uncharacteristic of his abilities. In 2004 for the Dodgers, Beltre hit .334 with 48 home runs, 121 RBIs, all career highs. In the two previous seasons, 2002 and 2003, Beltre batted .257 and .240, respectively. For his career entering his contract with the Mariners, Beltre was mediocre. Seattle signed a .334 hitter with great power. But due to what I have come to know as “regression to the mean,” got a man who was a career mediocre .274 hitter at the time with 25 home run pop in his bat. I define regression to the mean as a foreseeable and inexorable return of a veteran player to his average career performance statistics within a single standard deviation of the mean for the season(s) following a career year. Following his torrid 2004 campaign, Beltre has not hit above .276. He also has not eclipsed even 26 homers, 100 RBIs, or 200 hits during any other season at any time during his career. If I could ever offer any advice to any GM, I would say to beware the career years of a player, because they almost invariably overshadow underachieving career stats and coincide with a contract year.
The signing of Jarrod Washburn is a prime example of the Mariners overpaying for a historical underachiever coming off of a career year. The Mariners over invested in the mediocre left-hander, inking him to a contract worth four years and $37 million. He is nearing the end of his third season with the team, and during his time in Seattle, the 34-year old has not finished with a winning record, nor has he succeeded in keeping his ERA any lower that 4.32 for the year. In 2005, before signing with Seattle, Washburn made 29 starts for the Angels and boasted a 3.20 ERA. This is the season in which he earned his big payday in Seattle, not in the previous two seasons in which Washburn finished with ERA’s of 4.43 and 4.64, respectively. In his 11th Major League season, Washburn has allowed more hits than innings pitched in his career, has only recorded five seasons of 100 or more strikeouts, and has a career record of 98-100. Washburn has a career ERA of 4.13, nearly a full run per nine innings higher than he had in his contract season of 2005. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN. Hoping a player will repeat his performance of the previous year is a mistake. Looking at the performance trends of his career before signing him, is a necessity. Also, following a player’s signing of a long-term, guaranteed contract, the incentive to perform drops considerably.
So get used to the AL West Basement, Mariner fans. Finding fault in the Angels' lineup is no easy task, the A's continue to reload each year with young talent, and the Rangers' high-powered offense will continue to improve, especially with the emergence of 1B slugger Chris Davis, and Rookie OF David Murphy. I predict at least one more last place finish in 2009 before the M's make any kind of a push for third place.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Arms Arrivals Could Propel Teams into the Post-Season
With the non-waiver trade deadline looming, two of the biggest pitching chips have already been moved. On July 7th, the Indians found the deal they wanted with the Brewers for Ace left-hander C.C. Sabathia. Entering July 28, Sabathia has pitched three consecutive complete games, one of which was a shutout. In his first four starts as a Brewer, he has surrendered just 5 earned runs in 33 innings pitched, for a 1.36 ERA, while striking out 31 and walking just eight since arriving in the National League. Combined with fellow ace Ben Sheets, the Brewers have become strong candidates to ultimately subdue the third place Cardinals and possibly catch and/or pass the Cubs to take the NL Central division title. Behind the solidified staff, All-Star OF’s Ryan Braun and Corey Hart will continue to power an imposing offense that also features young stud 1B Prince Fielder and SS J.J Hardy. The recent addition of veteran 2B Ray Durham solidifies the middle defensively, and also serves as an offensive upgrade given the struggles of incumbent 2B Rickie Weekes.
Following the acquisition of Sabathia by the Brewers, the first-place Cubs quickly completed a trade with the ever-rebuilding Oakland A’s, who soon after parted ways with Opening Day starter Joe Blanton, for RHP Rich Harden. Harden is a difference maker when healthy and has 10 K stuff, that is the potential to strike out ten in any given start. He has an electric fastball in the mid-90’s, complemented by a nasty hard slider. Over the course of his first three starts with the Cubs, Harden has allowed only two runs (both earned). He also has scattered only a total of seven hits in 17.1 IP. Combined with established ace and workhorse Carlos Zambrano, and surprise closer-turned-starter Ryan Dempster (11-4, 2.99 ERA, 117 K’s), Harden could be exactly the pitching addition the Cubs needed to counter the Sabathia trade and hold onto first place in the NL Central.
The Marlins’ Josh Johnson has returned from Tommy John surgery and appears to still have his dynamite stuff, featuring an explosive fastball that still touches 97 mph (after not pitching in a game for over one full year). His return could stabilize a Marlins rotation marred by injuries and inconsistency. Also, the arrival of pitching prospect Chris Volstad will aid in adding strength to the Florida rotation. Volstad has flown, to this point, somewhat under the radar as he has already turned in three solid starts. In his debut as a starter, Volstad lasted 8.2 innings and gave up just on earned run while beating the Dodgers. In his last two starts, he has pitched a total of 12 innings (6 in each start) and surrendered just five earned runs. The additions of the dominant Johnson and promising Volstad combined with Ricky Nolasco’s solid season could be enough to allow the slugging Fish to sneak past the Phillies and Mets to take the NL East, as the NL Wild-Card will most likely go to the Central’s runner up (either the Cubs or Brewers). To back up Florida’s pitching, the offense boasts sluggers Mike Jacobs (22 HR/60 RBI’s), Dan Uggla (25 HR/62 RBI’s), Jorge Cantu (18 HR/60 RBI), Hanley Ramirez (24 HR/47 RBI/ 84 runs scored), Jeremy Hermida (15 HR/47 RBI’s), Cody Ross (15 HR/49 RBI’s) and LF Josh Willingham who is returning from a DL stint.
The Tigers, currently making a push for the AL Central crown, will have to battle past the Twins and White Sox. If they do so, Detroit will be riding rookie rotation saver, Armando Galarraga, who boasts an ERA of 3.27 in 18 games (17 starts). Also, righty fireballer Justin Verlander finally appears to have turned things around as he recently turned in a string of eight consecutive starts in which he surrendered just two earned runs or fewer. This streak lasted from June 11 to July 26. With Verlander regaining his form of old despite a rocky outing against the White Sox on July 25th and the onslaught of runs the lineup is capable of scoring on a nightly basis, the Tigers should make a hard second half push for the AL Central. The returns of relievers Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya could figure into the team’s immediate future as well.
The Twins figure to see the return of Francisco Liriano to the rotation at some point in the near future as he has torn apart Triple-A offenses. In the rotation, he could potentially replace the struggling Livan Hernandez (5.31 ERA), the only Twins starter with an ERA above 4.41. In 19 starts with Triple-A Rochester since his demotion, Liriano is 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA to go with a .231 opponents batting average and a K:BB of 113:31. From June 30th to July 27th, Liriano did not give up an earned run in four of five starts. He is ready to make an impact.
Finally, perhaps the biggest potential difference maker is David Price, the first round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2007 Draft. During each of his final two years at Vanderbilt, the left hander broke the school’s single season strikeout record. He is currently pitching at the Double-A level and has been near untouchable throughout his college and minor league careers. Listed on the Rays’ 40-man roster, he could fill a rotation or a bullpen spot by the end of the season. In doing so, he would certainly join Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza. He could potentially replace Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson, who could make a transition to the bullpen with his live arm or become valuable trade bait. Price was clocked this past spring at 99 mph. Since joining Double-A, the 6’6” 22 year old has compiled a 2.19 ERA in six starts, allowing just 33 hits in 37 innings pitched. Of all prospects prepared to break into the league I am and have been most excited about Price’s arrival. Given his natural dominant abilities and the fact that the major leaguers have not yet faced him, Price stands to make an immediate difference. His potential addition to the first place Tampa staff might be enough to help the Rays to the franchise’s first pennant. The Yankees’ loss of Jorge Posada for the season furthers the Rays’ chances as well. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that this young group can hold off the Red Sox and take the division.
On the Side:
The Braves placed 3B Chipper Jones and Ace RHP Tim Hudson on the DL today, officially marking the beginning of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, as the Braves will attempt to trade for a major leaguer and possibly some prospects, instead of losing him through free agency at season’s end for two draft picks. Teixeira will certainly be classified as a Type-A free agent, allowing the Braves to receive the first round pick of the team that signs him (or the second round pick if the team he goes to finishes the 2008 campaign with on of the 15 worst records in the majors) in addition to a supplemental round pick, if Atlanta does not find the right deal for the switch hitting, Gold-Glove, slugger. The Yankees and Diamondbacks appear to be the front runners, however the Braves will demand a first-baseman in return. Also, any team interested in acquiring Teixeira’s services would be wise to consider the fact that he is most likely a rental player unless the team can sign him to a big extension. This could bring the big-market Angels into the bidding, as they continue their search for another big bat in the lineup. The Braves could demand a package of young first baseman Casey Kotchman, young, hard-throwing reliever Jose Arredondo, and another prospect (Triple-A RHP Nick Adenhart, maybe?). If it happens, you heard it here first.
Following the acquisition of Sabathia by the Brewers, the first-place Cubs quickly completed a trade with the ever-rebuilding Oakland A’s, who soon after parted ways with Opening Day starter Joe Blanton, for RHP Rich Harden. Harden is a difference maker when healthy and has 10 K stuff, that is the potential to strike out ten in any given start. He has an electric fastball in the mid-90’s, complemented by a nasty hard slider. Over the course of his first three starts with the Cubs, Harden has allowed only two runs (both earned). He also has scattered only a total of seven hits in 17.1 IP. Combined with established ace and workhorse Carlos Zambrano, and surprise closer-turned-starter Ryan Dempster (11-4, 2.99 ERA, 117 K’s), Harden could be exactly the pitching addition the Cubs needed to counter the Sabathia trade and hold onto first place in the NL Central.
The Marlins’ Josh Johnson has returned from Tommy John surgery and appears to still have his dynamite stuff, featuring an explosive fastball that still touches 97 mph (after not pitching in a game for over one full year). His return could stabilize a Marlins rotation marred by injuries and inconsistency. Also, the arrival of pitching prospect Chris Volstad will aid in adding strength to the Florida rotation. Volstad has flown, to this point, somewhat under the radar as he has already turned in three solid starts. In his debut as a starter, Volstad lasted 8.2 innings and gave up just on earned run while beating the Dodgers. In his last two starts, he has pitched a total of 12 innings (6 in each start) and surrendered just five earned runs. The additions of the dominant Johnson and promising Volstad combined with Ricky Nolasco’s solid season could be enough to allow the slugging Fish to sneak past the Phillies and Mets to take the NL East, as the NL Wild-Card will most likely go to the Central’s runner up (either the Cubs or Brewers). To back up Florida’s pitching, the offense boasts sluggers Mike Jacobs (22 HR/60 RBI’s), Dan Uggla (25 HR/62 RBI’s), Jorge Cantu (18 HR/60 RBI), Hanley Ramirez (24 HR/47 RBI/ 84 runs scored), Jeremy Hermida (15 HR/47 RBI’s), Cody Ross (15 HR/49 RBI’s) and LF Josh Willingham who is returning from a DL stint.
The Tigers, currently making a push for the AL Central crown, will have to battle past the Twins and White Sox. If they do so, Detroit will be riding rookie rotation saver, Armando Galarraga, who boasts an ERA of 3.27 in 18 games (17 starts). Also, righty fireballer Justin Verlander finally appears to have turned things around as he recently turned in a string of eight consecutive starts in which he surrendered just two earned runs or fewer. This streak lasted from June 11 to July 26. With Verlander regaining his form of old despite a rocky outing against the White Sox on July 25th and the onslaught of runs the lineup is capable of scoring on a nightly basis, the Tigers should make a hard second half push for the AL Central. The returns of relievers Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya could figure into the team’s immediate future as well.
The Twins figure to see the return of Francisco Liriano to the rotation at some point in the near future as he has torn apart Triple-A offenses. In the rotation, he could potentially replace the struggling Livan Hernandez (5.31 ERA), the only Twins starter with an ERA above 4.41. In 19 starts with Triple-A Rochester since his demotion, Liriano is 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA to go with a .231 opponents batting average and a K:BB of 113:31. From June 30th to July 27th, Liriano did not give up an earned run in four of five starts. He is ready to make an impact.
Finally, perhaps the biggest potential difference maker is David Price, the first round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2007 Draft. During each of his final two years at Vanderbilt, the left hander broke the school’s single season strikeout record. He is currently pitching at the Double-A level and has been near untouchable throughout his college and minor league careers. Listed on the Rays’ 40-man roster, he could fill a rotation or a bullpen spot by the end of the season. In doing so, he would certainly join Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza. He could potentially replace Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson, who could make a transition to the bullpen with his live arm or become valuable trade bait. Price was clocked this past spring at 99 mph. Since joining Double-A, the 6’6” 22 year old has compiled a 2.19 ERA in six starts, allowing just 33 hits in 37 innings pitched. Of all prospects prepared to break into the league I am and have been most excited about Price’s arrival. Given his natural dominant abilities and the fact that the major leaguers have not yet faced him, Price stands to make an immediate difference. His potential addition to the first place Tampa staff might be enough to help the Rays to the franchise’s first pennant. The Yankees’ loss of Jorge Posada for the season furthers the Rays’ chances as well. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that this young group can hold off the Red Sox and take the division.
On the Side:
The Braves placed 3B Chipper Jones and Ace RHP Tim Hudson on the DL today, officially marking the beginning of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, as the Braves will attempt to trade for a major leaguer and possibly some prospects, instead of losing him through free agency at season’s end for two draft picks. Teixeira will certainly be classified as a Type-A free agent, allowing the Braves to receive the first round pick of the team that signs him (or the second round pick if the team he goes to finishes the 2008 campaign with on of the 15 worst records in the majors) in addition to a supplemental round pick, if Atlanta does not find the right deal for the switch hitting, Gold-Glove, slugger. The Yankees and Diamondbacks appear to be the front runners, however the Braves will demand a first-baseman in return. Also, any team interested in acquiring Teixeira’s services would be wise to consider the fact that he is most likely a rental player unless the team can sign him to a big extension. This could bring the big-market Angels into the bidding, as they continue their search for another big bat in the lineup. The Braves could demand a package of young first baseman Casey Kotchman, young, hard-throwing reliever Jose Arredondo, and another prospect (Triple-A RHP Nick Adenhart, maybe?). If it happens, you heard it here first.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Young Better Than Today's Youth
Michael Young of the Texas Rangers is and has been Major League Baseball’s most underrated shortstop for years, outperforming the league’s best for over half of a decade. After debuting with Texas in 2000, Young became a staple up the middle for the Rangers. He took over second base duties in 2001, as he was blocked at shortstop by Alex Rodriguez and his 10 year $252 million contract. After three years, A-Rod was shipped to the Bronx for then second baseman Alfonso Soriano. This move opened up shortstop for Young and allowed Soriano to take over second base for the Rangers (where he committed 23 errors in ’04 and 21 in ’05).
Since then, Young has been arguably the most productive shortstop offensively and certainly one of the game’s most solid defenders at the position, as he carries a career fielding percentage of .980. No easy task for someone who has spent his entire career in the infield and has played in at least 156 games in each of the past six full seasons. He could potentially extend that number to seven at the conclusion of this year.
Additionally, the 31 year-old Covina, California native has collected at least 200 hits in each of the past five seasons. To put this achievement into perspective, Derek Jeter cannot make this claim. Reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, third year phenom Hanley Ramirez, and former perennial All-Star SS Nomar Garciaparra have each all reached the 200 hit plateau only once in their careers. Edgar Renteria, Rafael Furcal, Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy, and Omar Vizquel have never even reached 200 hits in a season. Young has also hit over .300 in each of those seasons and owns a career batting average of .302. This year, he is currently on pace to finish with 203 hits if he plays in each of the final 66 games. Also, of the aforementioned band of talented shortstops, only Vizquel (.984) and Rollins (.982) have higher career fielding percentages. Young is also currently battling a hairline fracture on his left ring finger, but has nixed any possibility of a DL stint.
Michael Young has delivered the game winning RBI in two of the last three All-Star Games, including the 15th inning sacrifice fly off of Brad Lidge two nights ago. The other came in 2006 on an eventual game winning triple. Also, since the start of the 2003 season (5 ½ seasons) he has maintained a .357 batting average with runners in scoring position. Needless to say, he is an extremely clutch performer.
Young is also the real catalyst in the Rangers’ lineup. Much has been made of Texas’ leadoff man Ian Kinsler’s breakout season and of Josh Hamilton’s thumping of the league’s pitching. His knack for making contact behind the speedy Kinsler allows the Rangers to play hit and run with less risk. Since Young is so dangerous with the bat, pitchers are forced to go after him with their better breaking stuff, allowing Kinsler (23 steals in 24 attempts) to run more freely. Hamilton entered the All-Star Break with 95 RBI’s, second most all-time. Young’s high batting average, baserunning abilities (6 SB in 6 attempts), and on-base percentage of .350 allow Hamilton more RBI opportunities.
Young’s tenure with the organization has seen three different General Managers and four managers. He is also currently the longest tenured player on the Rangers’ roster, barely edging reliever Joaquin Benoit, who debuted in 2001. The general theme is that Michael Young is the epitome of consistency in baseball, and has close to a decade of good baseball ahead of him.
As modest as they come, Young always offers praise for his teammates when asked about his own accomplishments and abilities. Never has he made public a complaint about playing in the shadow of other shortstop standouts like Jeter, Rollins, and Reyes. In this age of Prima Donna and thug icons in sports, Michael has always carried himself in an exemplary manner and behaved in model fashion on and off the field. The Rangers truly have an all-around gem in Michael Young. He contributes on all levels within the game and will always receive my highest commendation.
Since then, Young has been arguably the most productive shortstop offensively and certainly one of the game’s most solid defenders at the position, as he carries a career fielding percentage of .980. No easy task for someone who has spent his entire career in the infield and has played in at least 156 games in each of the past six full seasons. He could potentially extend that number to seven at the conclusion of this year.
Additionally, the 31 year-old Covina, California native has collected at least 200 hits in each of the past five seasons. To put this achievement into perspective, Derek Jeter cannot make this claim. Reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, third year phenom Hanley Ramirez, and former perennial All-Star SS Nomar Garciaparra have each all reached the 200 hit plateau only once in their careers. Edgar Renteria, Rafael Furcal, Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy, and Omar Vizquel have never even reached 200 hits in a season. Young has also hit over .300 in each of those seasons and owns a career batting average of .302. This year, he is currently on pace to finish with 203 hits if he plays in each of the final 66 games. Also, of the aforementioned band of talented shortstops, only Vizquel (.984) and Rollins (.982) have higher career fielding percentages. Young is also currently battling a hairline fracture on his left ring finger, but has nixed any possibility of a DL stint.
Michael Young has delivered the game winning RBI in two of the last three All-Star Games, including the 15th inning sacrifice fly off of Brad Lidge two nights ago. The other came in 2006 on an eventual game winning triple. Also, since the start of the 2003 season (5 ½ seasons) he has maintained a .357 batting average with runners in scoring position. Needless to say, he is an extremely clutch performer.
Young is also the real catalyst in the Rangers’ lineup. Much has been made of Texas’ leadoff man Ian Kinsler’s breakout season and of Josh Hamilton’s thumping of the league’s pitching. His knack for making contact behind the speedy Kinsler allows the Rangers to play hit and run with less risk. Since Young is so dangerous with the bat, pitchers are forced to go after him with their better breaking stuff, allowing Kinsler (23 steals in 24 attempts) to run more freely. Hamilton entered the All-Star Break with 95 RBI’s, second most all-time. Young’s high batting average, baserunning abilities (6 SB in 6 attempts), and on-base percentage of .350 allow Hamilton more RBI opportunities.
Young’s tenure with the organization has seen three different General Managers and four managers. He is also currently the longest tenured player on the Rangers’ roster, barely edging reliever Joaquin Benoit, who debuted in 2001. The general theme is that Michael Young is the epitome of consistency in baseball, and has close to a decade of good baseball ahead of him.
As modest as they come, Young always offers praise for his teammates when asked about his own accomplishments and abilities. Never has he made public a complaint about playing in the shadow of other shortstop standouts like Jeter, Rollins, and Reyes. In this age of Prima Donna and thug icons in sports, Michael has always carried himself in an exemplary manner and behaved in model fashion on and off the field. The Rangers truly have an all-around gem in Michael Young. He contributes on all levels within the game and will always receive my highest commendation.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Floundering Bravos Bound to Wash Up
The outlook for the Atlanta Braves’ postseason hopes is not so good. In fact, the only thing keeping them on life support is the fact that the Phillies, Marlins (1.0 GB), and Mets (1.5GB) have not shown the ability to pull away from the fourth place Braves, who, at five games under .500, stand just 5 GB in the NL East. Despite the onslaught of serious injuries and individual performance slumps the Braves have faced, they remain in striking distance of the NL East division lead. They have also executed poorly, to say the least, on the road, going just 13-30. For the year, Atlanta has also been outscored by opponents 404-373 going into 7/9/08.
The following is a breakdown by position of the effects of Atlanta’s injuries and other problems on their lineup:
P: As far as starting pitching goes, the Braves lost right-handed ace for the year to right shoulder surgery. Tom Glavine is currently in his second DL stint of his career and of the season with left elbow problems and is not expected back any time soon…maybe even never. Mike Hampton has been anchoring the Braves’ DL staff since he started just 12 games way back in 2005. Starter Chuck James has also visited the DL this season, and is not currently on the Braves roster and has not appeared in a game since giving up 3 HR and 5 earned against the Phillies on May 15.
The bullpen has also been plagued by injuries. Rafael Soriano was slated to be the closer this year, but is currently sitting for the second time this season with right elbow soreness, an injury that poses a significant problem for a right handed pitcher. Closer Mike Gonzalez missed most of the 2007 season and appeared in his first game this year on June 18 after recovering from Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery. Peter Moylan, expected to be the Braves’ 7th or 8th inning man, is currently on the 60-day DL and has been out of action since 4/15. Troubled reliever, Manny Acosta struggled in the closer role in the absence of Soriano, Gonzalez, and Moylan and currently sits on the 15-day DL alongside fellow injured righty reliever Jeff Bennett. Buddy Carlyle, currently pitching in relief, has also seen DL time this year.
C: On the catching front, no complaints. Lefty-swinging Brian McCann is a deserving All-Star who is thumping southpaws with a .317 average against them. He is currently hitting .293 with 17 homers and 50 RBI’s, all while providing extraordinary protection for Jones and Teixeira in the middle of the order. Defensively, he has shown his durability to this point starting 79 of 91 games this year and appearing behind the plate in 84 of them. He also currently holds a stellar .995 fielding percentage.
1B: Mark Teixiera has been a mainstay at first base for the Bravos, though his offensive numbers are below where they traditionally would be at other times during his career. The biggest drawback on Teixeira this season has not been one of performance, nor injury proneness, but his impending departure via free agency at the end of the season. Last year before being traded to Atlanta, he (and agent Scott Boras) turned down an 8 year/ $140 million extension. It is doubtful that GM Frank Wren will enter the bidding, that will likely start at about that mark.
2B: Kelly Johnson has started in only 76 of Atlanta’s 91 games, but has managed to avoid the DL. Johnson finds himself sitting at times against tough left-handed pitching in favor of the right-handed Martin Prado, and the fleet of foot, switch hitting Ruben Gotay.
3B: Chipper Jones is leading the NL in batting average, and it is hard to find fault in that. However, Jones has been hampered this season by a slight groin injury which he could tweak into a DL stint on any given swing. He has also been bothered at times with a sore quad. Similarly to Johnson, he has started just 72 games.
SS: Twenty-five year old stud shortstop Yunel Escobar has not endured a DL stint, but has battled a painful shoulder injury that is evident in many of his swings as he can be seen wincing in pain during a follow through, especially when swinging and missing. As a right handed hitter, Escobar follows through with the bat in his left hand, causing his injured shoulder some degree of pain. He has also missed time this season due to a strained right hit flexor. Escobar sustained his left shoulder injury in the process of getting picked off of first base in a game in late June against the Brewers.
Utility-man Omar Infante played in Escobar’s stead the following night and promptly left the game with a right hamstring injury after running out a ground ball. This injury comes after Infante began the year on the DL and did not appear in a game until May 8.
Infielder Martin Prado, who has seen time in 2008 at all four infield positions, was on the congested Braves DL from 5/5 to 7/3 with a sprained left thumb.
This string of injuries precipitated the callup and six starts at SS by rookie SS Brent Lillibridge.
LF: Opening Day LF Matt Diaz has not appeared in a game since May 27 due to a left knee ligament strain. Though a career .310 hitter that posssesses the ability to drastically change the complexion of the Braves’ lineup for the better, Diaz hit just .163 during that month.
CF: Mark Kotsay, acquired from the A’s this past offseason to replace departed CF Andruw Jones, missed from May 25 to July 1 with an injury. No surprise for a guy who has appeared in 140 games or more only once since 2002. He has appeared in just 54 games to this point, 49 of which he started. In his limited time, Kotsay’s production has been modest, hitting at a .278 clip with four homers and 22 RBI’s.
RF: It has been a bumpy ride to this point for Jeff Francoeur. Although he has not been bitten by the injury bug (yet), the struggling free-swinger recently endured a demotion Double-A Mississippi that cannot have been any more embarrassing for him than his performance thus far in the Braves’ lineup.
Luckily for Atlanta, Tim Hudson has done an outstanding job securing his status as the new, undisputed ace of the staff, posting a 9-6 record with a 3.19 ERA. Following him is rookie Jair Jurrjens, who has been extremely effective and a savior for the depleted staff. Thus far, Jurrjens has posted an ERA of 3.00, while going 9-4 and winning Rookie of the Month honors for the month of June. Jorge Campillo has filled in admirably, making 10 starts since his shift from the bullpen. Prior to this season, Campillo had one career start. Twenty-three year old lefty Jo-Jo Reyes has been inconsistent, getting tuned up by opposing offenses in about a third of his starts, but his future is bright. Charlie Morton currently occupies the fifth rotation spot, and has been far less than impressive though his first five starts, getting touched up to 19 ER through just 25 innings. Beyond Hudson, the Braves have a glaring inexperience dilemma in the rotation.
In addition to the aforementioned Gonzalez and Carlyle, lefty specialist Royce Ring, Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman, and totally ineffective, aging vet, Julian Tavarez round out the bullpen. The Braves signed Tavarez in an act of sheer desperation to acquire experienced pitching to a worn-out staff. Both the Red Sox and Brewers have taken a chance on the 35 year-old this season and realized their mistake. Look for the Braves to do the same before too long, if the trend of Tavarez’s regression continues. He comes to the Braves with an ERA of 7.20 for the year (with Milwaukee and Boston), allowing 31 hits in 20 innings, all in relief.
The following is a breakdown by position of the effects of Atlanta’s injuries and other problems on their lineup:
P: As far as starting pitching goes, the Braves lost right-handed ace for the year to right shoulder surgery. Tom Glavine is currently in his second DL stint of his career and of the season with left elbow problems and is not expected back any time soon…maybe even never. Mike Hampton has been anchoring the Braves’ DL staff since he started just 12 games way back in 2005. Starter Chuck James has also visited the DL this season, and is not currently on the Braves roster and has not appeared in a game since giving up 3 HR and 5 earned against the Phillies on May 15.
The bullpen has also been plagued by injuries. Rafael Soriano was slated to be the closer this year, but is currently sitting for the second time this season with right elbow soreness, an injury that poses a significant problem for a right handed pitcher. Closer Mike Gonzalez missed most of the 2007 season and appeared in his first game this year on June 18 after recovering from Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery. Peter Moylan, expected to be the Braves’ 7th or 8th inning man, is currently on the 60-day DL and has been out of action since 4/15. Troubled reliever, Manny Acosta struggled in the closer role in the absence of Soriano, Gonzalez, and Moylan and currently sits on the 15-day DL alongside fellow injured righty reliever Jeff Bennett. Buddy Carlyle, currently pitching in relief, has also seen DL time this year.
C: On the catching front, no complaints. Lefty-swinging Brian McCann is a deserving All-Star who is thumping southpaws with a .317 average against them. He is currently hitting .293 with 17 homers and 50 RBI’s, all while providing extraordinary protection for Jones and Teixeira in the middle of the order. Defensively, he has shown his durability to this point starting 79 of 91 games this year and appearing behind the plate in 84 of them. He also currently holds a stellar .995 fielding percentage.
1B: Mark Teixiera has been a mainstay at first base for the Bravos, though his offensive numbers are below where they traditionally would be at other times during his career. The biggest drawback on Teixeira this season has not been one of performance, nor injury proneness, but his impending departure via free agency at the end of the season. Last year before being traded to Atlanta, he (and agent Scott Boras) turned down an 8 year/ $140 million extension. It is doubtful that GM Frank Wren will enter the bidding, that will likely start at about that mark.
2B: Kelly Johnson has started in only 76 of Atlanta’s 91 games, but has managed to avoid the DL. Johnson finds himself sitting at times against tough left-handed pitching in favor of the right-handed Martin Prado, and the fleet of foot, switch hitting Ruben Gotay.
3B: Chipper Jones is leading the NL in batting average, and it is hard to find fault in that. However, Jones has been hampered this season by a slight groin injury which he could tweak into a DL stint on any given swing. He has also been bothered at times with a sore quad. Similarly to Johnson, he has started just 72 games.
SS: Twenty-five year old stud shortstop Yunel Escobar has not endured a DL stint, but has battled a painful shoulder injury that is evident in many of his swings as he can be seen wincing in pain during a follow through, especially when swinging and missing. As a right handed hitter, Escobar follows through with the bat in his left hand, causing his injured shoulder some degree of pain. He has also missed time this season due to a strained right hit flexor. Escobar sustained his left shoulder injury in the process of getting picked off of first base in a game in late June against the Brewers.
Utility-man Omar Infante played in Escobar’s stead the following night and promptly left the game with a right hamstring injury after running out a ground ball. This injury comes after Infante began the year on the DL and did not appear in a game until May 8.
Infielder Martin Prado, who has seen time in 2008 at all four infield positions, was on the congested Braves DL from 5/5 to 7/3 with a sprained left thumb.
This string of injuries precipitated the callup and six starts at SS by rookie SS Brent Lillibridge.
LF: Opening Day LF Matt Diaz has not appeared in a game since May 27 due to a left knee ligament strain. Though a career .310 hitter that posssesses the ability to drastically change the complexion of the Braves’ lineup for the better, Diaz hit just .163 during that month.
CF: Mark Kotsay, acquired from the A’s this past offseason to replace departed CF Andruw Jones, missed from May 25 to July 1 with an injury. No surprise for a guy who has appeared in 140 games or more only once since 2002. He has appeared in just 54 games to this point, 49 of which he started. In his limited time, Kotsay’s production has been modest, hitting at a .278 clip with four homers and 22 RBI’s.
RF: It has been a bumpy ride to this point for Jeff Francoeur. Although he has not been bitten by the injury bug (yet), the struggling free-swinger recently endured a demotion Double-A Mississippi that cannot have been any more embarrassing for him than his performance thus far in the Braves’ lineup.
Luckily for Atlanta, Tim Hudson has done an outstanding job securing his status as the new, undisputed ace of the staff, posting a 9-6 record with a 3.19 ERA. Following him is rookie Jair Jurrjens, who has been extremely effective and a savior for the depleted staff. Thus far, Jurrjens has posted an ERA of 3.00, while going 9-4 and winning Rookie of the Month honors for the month of June. Jorge Campillo has filled in admirably, making 10 starts since his shift from the bullpen. Prior to this season, Campillo had one career start. Twenty-three year old lefty Jo-Jo Reyes has been inconsistent, getting tuned up by opposing offenses in about a third of his starts, but his future is bright. Charlie Morton currently occupies the fifth rotation spot, and has been far less than impressive though his first five starts, getting touched up to 19 ER through just 25 innings. Beyond Hudson, the Braves have a glaring inexperience dilemma in the rotation.
In addition to the aforementioned Gonzalez and Carlyle, lefty specialist Royce Ring, Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman, and totally ineffective, aging vet, Julian Tavarez round out the bullpen. The Braves signed Tavarez in an act of sheer desperation to acquire experienced pitching to a worn-out staff. Both the Red Sox and Brewers have taken a chance on the 35 year-old this season and realized their mistake. Look for the Braves to do the same before too long, if the trend of Tavarez’s regression continues. He comes to the Braves with an ERA of 7.20 for the year (with Milwaukee and Boston), allowing 31 hits in 20 innings, all in relief.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Small-Ball Works in SoCal
Angels’ GM Tony Reagins is in his first season at his position. His predecessor, Bill Stoneman, now a consultant for the organization, certainly had a knack for identifying and acquiring talent. Their approach is aggressive, yet conventional. Bold, but furtive. They are big spenders who play small ball. They have shown their assertiveness in recent years in the off-season free agent market, adding big-name free agents to high dollar deals such as Vlad Guerrero (5 year/$70 million in 2004), Gary Matthews, Jr. (5 year/$50 million in 2006), and Torii Hunter (5 year/ $90 million in 2007). Hunter was Reagins’ first big free agent splash.
For the final six years of the Stoneman era, Reagins held the fundamental position of Director of Player Development. During that time, the club drafted, signed, traded for, or otherwise groomed C’s Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis, 1B Casey Kotchman, 2B Howie Kendrick, SS’s Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar, 3B’s Chone Figgins, top prospect Bandon Wood, OF’s Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews, Jr., Vlad Guerrero, and Reggie Willits, and Pitchers Jeff Weaver, Joe Saunders, John Garland, Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar, Jose Arredondo, Darren Oliver, and lights-out closer Francisco Rodriguez. Stoneman brought most of these names to LA, while aided greatly by Reagins who oversaw their individual development and helped move many players from the system along to the big leagues. Of the 20 aforementioned players, one (Wood) is currently at the AAA level, one (Escobar is on the DL), and 18 are on the 25 man roster.
Anaheim’s long-tenured manager and former catcher, Mike Scioscia, runs the team that Reagins helped Stoneman to manufacture. The front office/manager trio of Stoneman, Reagins, and Scioscia pieced together the scrappy bunch that won the 2002 World Series over the high-powered San Francisco Giants in seven games, marching past the Yankees and Twins in the process. That team was comprised, more so than the 2008 club, of players whose names the casual fan would probably have not familiar with. This bunch included players such as C’s Bengie and Jose Molina, 1B Darin Erstad, 2B Adam Kennedy, 3B Troy Glaus, SS David Eckstein, current LF Garret Anderson, then-rookie closer Francisco Rodriguez, and others.
Though I will always make the case that it takes more managerial talent and decision-making ability to manage in the National League, Scioscia is about as good as they get. His background of 15 years as a Major League catcher and his eight and a half seasons as Angels’ manager have made him one of the best at making calls, especially when it comes to calling pitches in tight situations, from the dugout. His players seem to buy into his team oriented system of manufacturing runs versus swinging away, something especially rare in the American League, given the fact that there essentially is the potential for power at every spot in the lineup.
Kotchman, Kendrick, Figgins, Hunter, Guerrero, and Anderson (although his numbers are down this year - .255/6 /35) are all established, high average hitters. Also, to this point in the season, Gary Matthews, Jr. leads Angels everyday players in strikeouts with only 67 K’s, as the Halos are 82 games into their season. Hunter joins him as the only other Angel who has punched out 50 times or more. To put these numbers into perspective, Phillies 1B Ryan Howard has gone down on strikes 114 times thus far, 47 more times than the Angels’ team leader. Every Los Angeles position player who has seen time in on the 25-man roster this season with the exception of Matthews and Hunter has struck out fewer that 47 times, the difference between the Major League leader and the Angels’ leader. The team’s collective baserunning ability (62 SB in 85 attempts for a 72.94% success rate) combined with its hitters’ propensity to make consistent contact and put the ball in play allows Scioscia’s club to effectively hit and run often, allowing for baserunners to advance from first to third on a single, or score from first on a double.
The Angels will continue to ride this small-ball style, combined with their solid pitching rotation and loaded back end of the bullpen, which includes the electric Rodriguez, primary setup man Scott Shields (2.53 ERA, 9K/9IP), young, hard-tossing Jose Arredondo (1.40 ERA/ 8.84 K/9 IP), veteran lefty Darren Oliver (3.12 ERA/ 4.47 K/9 IP), in addition to the struggling, but historically good Justin Speier, and solid rookie, Darren O’Day.
For the final six years of the Stoneman era, Reagins held the fundamental position of Director of Player Development. During that time, the club drafted, signed, traded for, or otherwise groomed C’s Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis, 1B Casey Kotchman, 2B Howie Kendrick, SS’s Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar, 3B’s Chone Figgins, top prospect Bandon Wood, OF’s Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews, Jr., Vlad Guerrero, and Reggie Willits, and Pitchers Jeff Weaver, Joe Saunders, John Garland, Ervin Santana, Kelvim Escobar, Jose Arredondo, Darren Oliver, and lights-out closer Francisco Rodriguez. Stoneman brought most of these names to LA, while aided greatly by Reagins who oversaw their individual development and helped move many players from the system along to the big leagues. Of the 20 aforementioned players, one (Wood) is currently at the AAA level, one (Escobar is on the DL), and 18 are on the 25 man roster.
Anaheim’s long-tenured manager and former catcher, Mike Scioscia, runs the team that Reagins helped Stoneman to manufacture. The front office/manager trio of Stoneman, Reagins, and Scioscia pieced together the scrappy bunch that won the 2002 World Series over the high-powered San Francisco Giants in seven games, marching past the Yankees and Twins in the process. That team was comprised, more so than the 2008 club, of players whose names the casual fan would probably have not familiar with. This bunch included players such as C’s Bengie and Jose Molina, 1B Darin Erstad, 2B Adam Kennedy, 3B Troy Glaus, SS David Eckstein, current LF Garret Anderson, then-rookie closer Francisco Rodriguez, and others.
Though I will always make the case that it takes more managerial talent and decision-making ability to manage in the National League, Scioscia is about as good as they get. His background of 15 years as a Major League catcher and his eight and a half seasons as Angels’ manager have made him one of the best at making calls, especially when it comes to calling pitches in tight situations, from the dugout. His players seem to buy into his team oriented system of manufacturing runs versus swinging away, something especially rare in the American League, given the fact that there essentially is the potential for power at every spot in the lineup.
Kotchman, Kendrick, Figgins, Hunter, Guerrero, and Anderson (although his numbers are down this year - .255/6 /35) are all established, high average hitters. Also, to this point in the season, Gary Matthews, Jr. leads Angels everyday players in strikeouts with only 67 K’s, as the Halos are 82 games into their season. Hunter joins him as the only other Angel who has punched out 50 times or more. To put these numbers into perspective, Phillies 1B Ryan Howard has gone down on strikes 114 times thus far, 47 more times than the Angels’ team leader. Every Los Angeles position player who has seen time in on the 25-man roster this season with the exception of Matthews and Hunter has struck out fewer that 47 times, the difference between the Major League leader and the Angels’ leader. The team’s collective baserunning ability (62 SB in 85 attempts for a 72.94% success rate) combined with its hitters’ propensity to make consistent contact and put the ball in play allows Scioscia’s club to effectively hit and run often, allowing for baserunners to advance from first to third on a single, or score from first on a double.
The Angels will continue to ride this small-ball style, combined with their solid pitching rotation and loaded back end of the bullpen, which includes the electric Rodriguez, primary setup man Scott Shields (2.53 ERA, 9K/9IP), young, hard-tossing Jose Arredondo (1.40 ERA/ 8.84 K/9 IP), veteran lefty Darren Oliver (3.12 ERA/ 4.47 K/9 IP), in addition to the struggling, but historically good Justin Speier, and solid rookie, Darren O’Day.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Firesale Could Come in Western PA
It isn’t too early to begin speculation about who will land where at the trade deadline that is approaching faster than you may think. Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington figures to be a busy man, come the end of July. The Pirates are currently 11.0 games back in the NL Central division, the league’s most crowded division and do not figure to make any sort of a late-summer charge for first place past the Cubs, Cardinals , and Brewers. The Wild-Card is set to almost certainly go to the NL East runner up. The Phillies are legitimate contenders and will only continue to improve as the weather heats up. The Marlins have played the role of underdog before and could continue to play it well. The Mets should soon realize a common goal and stop fighting for space on the DL. When that happens, the team including Jose Reyes, David Wright, a healthy Ryan Church, and a hot and healthy Carlos Beltran (we can’t count everything out) can be dangerous. Also, those Atlanta Braves will continue to loom in the rearview, but perhaps not for too long, as John Smoltz is gone for the year, Tom Glavine is on the DL with a sore elbow, and Mike Hampton has not pitched since 2005, a season in which he started just 12 games. Also, relievers Peter Moylan, lefty Mike Gonzalez, and closer Rafael Soriano are all on the shelf. That trio had the potential to pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings for the Braves, respectively.
The Pirates have several trading chips that will be highly sought after as the next month and a half go by. Jason Bay will be an attractive addition to a contender seeking outfield help. He is still 29 and to this point, is hitting .288 with 14 homers, 36 RBI, and 52 runs scored. Xavier Nady has also shown his ability to drive in runs and to hit in the middle of the lineup. He is having a career year and is hitting at a .314 clip with 10 home runs, 49 RBIs, and 18 doubles already. Nady could attract even more interest than Bay and fetch even more in return for the Pirates, as the buyer that deals for him will retain Nady’s services through all of next season, as he still has one year remaining before he is eligible for free agency after the 2009 campaign. Nady was removed from June 14th’s game with acromioclavicular joint sprain in his left shoulder, but the Bucs have deemed that a trip to the DL is not necessary and expect Nady to be back in action within a few days.
Should the two depart, Nate McLouth will remain the starting center fielder as he will continue to jumpstart what otherwise will be a dormant offense. Jason Michaels is certainly a capable fill-in at either of the corner outfield spots for the final third of the season, and OF Chris Duffy, currently out with a shoulder injury, could provide some relief in the coming months, giving the club with another option to replace either Bay or Nady.
Speedy Class-AAA outfielder Nyjer Morgan has some Major League experience and could be the club’s first option in the minor leagues to fill a Bay’s or Nady’s roster spot. Also on the horizon for the Pirates in the outfield is 2005 first-round pick Andrew McCutchen, the club’s top outfielding prospect. Of all outfield prospects in the minor leagues, I am most excited to see McCutchen prepare to make the jump to the Bigs. This is a statement I can now honestly make since the promotion of Jay Bruce to Cincinnati. I rate McCutchen above Cardinals’ propect Colby Rasmus, Florida’s Cameron Maybin, and others. Currently with AAA-Indianapolis, he is hitting .284 with 8 homers, 28 RBI, 19 steals, and 42 runs scored through 69 games.
In AA-Altoona, 25 year old LF Jonel Panecho is putting up outstanding numbers, hitting at a .299 clip with 7 HR and 29 RBI in 61 games and could be in for a promotion soon. It is not outside the realm of possibility that Panecho could end up in the Pirates’ outfield mix next spring. Also in AA, RF Brad Corley is another to keep an eye on, as he has put up respectable numbers and could play himself into a role with the Pirates in the future.
Pittsburgh would also love to unload underachieving SS Jack Wilson, but I would be surprised if a playoff contender were suddenly in search of an everyday shortstop, and if a club would ever be interested in acquiring the injury prone, streaky hitter. Should the need arise for a team to deal for Wilson, it will most likely be the result of a severe injury to a starting shortstop. In his defense, however, Wilson is an above average defender.
Adam LaRoche’s name might surface in trade rumors, but I would be surprised to see him depart before the year is through. Interest in him will be minimal in him due to the down year he is having offensively (.221 BA, .303 OBP), but the Buc’s will be tempted to let their big swinger go should the right offer come along, allowing journeyman Doug Mientkiewicz will occupy first base for the remainder of the season.
The Pirates have several trading chips that will be highly sought after as the next month and a half go by. Jason Bay will be an attractive addition to a contender seeking outfield help. He is still 29 and to this point, is hitting .288 with 14 homers, 36 RBI, and 52 runs scored. Xavier Nady has also shown his ability to drive in runs and to hit in the middle of the lineup. He is having a career year and is hitting at a .314 clip with 10 home runs, 49 RBIs, and 18 doubles already. Nady could attract even more interest than Bay and fetch even more in return for the Pirates, as the buyer that deals for him will retain Nady’s services through all of next season, as he still has one year remaining before he is eligible for free agency after the 2009 campaign. Nady was removed from June 14th’s game with acromioclavicular joint sprain in his left shoulder, but the Bucs have deemed that a trip to the DL is not necessary and expect Nady to be back in action within a few days.
Should the two depart, Nate McLouth will remain the starting center fielder as he will continue to jumpstart what otherwise will be a dormant offense. Jason Michaels is certainly a capable fill-in at either of the corner outfield spots for the final third of the season, and OF Chris Duffy, currently out with a shoulder injury, could provide some relief in the coming months, giving the club with another option to replace either Bay or Nady.
Speedy Class-AAA outfielder Nyjer Morgan has some Major League experience and could be the club’s first option in the minor leagues to fill a Bay’s or Nady’s roster spot. Also on the horizon for the Pirates in the outfield is 2005 first-round pick Andrew McCutchen, the club’s top outfielding prospect. Of all outfield prospects in the minor leagues, I am most excited to see McCutchen prepare to make the jump to the Bigs. This is a statement I can now honestly make since the promotion of Jay Bruce to Cincinnati. I rate McCutchen above Cardinals’ propect Colby Rasmus, Florida’s Cameron Maybin, and others. Currently with AAA-Indianapolis, he is hitting .284 with 8 homers, 28 RBI, 19 steals, and 42 runs scored through 69 games.
In AA-Altoona, 25 year old LF Jonel Panecho is putting up outstanding numbers, hitting at a .299 clip with 7 HR and 29 RBI in 61 games and could be in for a promotion soon. It is not outside the realm of possibility that Panecho could end up in the Pirates’ outfield mix next spring. Also in AA, RF Brad Corley is another to keep an eye on, as he has put up respectable numbers and could play himself into a role with the Pirates in the future.
Pittsburgh would also love to unload underachieving SS Jack Wilson, but I would be surprised if a playoff contender were suddenly in search of an everyday shortstop, and if a club would ever be interested in acquiring the injury prone, streaky hitter. Should the need arise for a team to deal for Wilson, it will most likely be the result of a severe injury to a starting shortstop. In his defense, however, Wilson is an above average defender.
Adam LaRoche’s name might surface in trade rumors, but I would be surprised to see him depart before the year is through. Interest in him will be minimal in him due to the down year he is having offensively (.221 BA, .303 OBP), but the Buc’s will be tempted to let their big swinger go should the right offer come along, allowing journeyman Doug Mientkiewicz will occupy first base for the remainder of the season.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Can Blake DeW-itt? Yes He Can!
One of the major questions for the Dodgers entering the 2008 season was who would fill the void at third base created by injuries to incumbent Nomar Garciaparra, top rookie 3B prospect Andy La Roche, and utility-man Tony Abreu late in spring training. That question has been answered, authoritatively, by 22 year old, lefty-swinging Blake DeWitt. Nomar has struggled mightily in with injuries over the past several seasons. His shift from shortstop to the first base in 2006 for LA seemed logical because the acquisition of Rafael Furcal blocked Nomar at his primary position. The emergence of young 1B phenom James Loney prompted the shift of Nomar to third base, where he entered spring training expecting to compete for playing time with La Roche, younger brother of Pirates 1B Andy La Roche. In the absence of Nomar and La Roche, the desperate Dodgers took a chance on young 3B prospect Blake DeWitt.
Since his callup, DeWitt is hitting .325 through 39 games. He has hit four home runs and driven in 23, while scoring 22 times. DeWitt has held his own defensively, too, with a .953 fielding percentage. He has also proven himself to be the Dodgers’ best clutch performer at the plate since his callup. Don’t believe me? DeWitt has batted six times this season with the bases loaded, and has six hits. On May 19 DeWitt capped off a Dodgers comeback with a walk-off single off of reliever David Weathers to beat Cincinnati 6-5 on May 19. DeWitt went 2-5 in that game and drove in two of the LA runs. Every win the Dodgers can come up with will be of utmost importance in that division with the emergence of the D’Backs as the NL West’s best, and the Rockies cannot possibly stay dormant for much longer.
Another option has emerged as a potential candidate to push DeWitt and La Roche for the 3B job in the long term, as Terry Tiffee has been tearing up at Triple-A Las Vegas, hitting at a .412 clip over 44 games (182 at-bats) and driving in 36 runs. This potential three headed monster at third base composed of DeWitt, La Roche, and Tiffee will inevitably make one, if not two, of the trio expendable should the right offer come along and should the organization definitively decide who will be the third baseman of the future, with Tony Abreu continuing in his utility role. A shift for any of the three to first base is simply not going to happen because James Loney will be covering the far right side of the LA infield for years to come. Also, a shift of any of the three to an outfield position is not likely because that area is already overcrowded with Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp, all of whom should have a starting role in the Major Leagues. The Dodgers should be reluctant to give up both Kemp and Ethier and are stuck with Pierre for three more years and Jones (who needs surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right knee) for at least one more year. A shift to shortstop pending the departure of current SS Rafael Furcal is also unlikely for any of the three young third basemen.
Another possible trading chip come the deadline, should he show he can stay healthy for more than nine consecutive days, will be Nomar Garciaparra as his 2 year deal expires at the end of this season.
The most highly touted of the DeWitt/ La Roche/ Tiffee trio over the past year or so seems to have been La Roche. However, DeWitt certainly is making a case for himself. He has been, arguably, the most pleasant surprise for the Dodgers and at third base around the league, especially considering his offensive performance and his young age (22). In my opinion, the most likely to depart is Tiffee given the fact that he is already 29.
I certainly hope that GM Ned Coletti is keeping a close eye on the situation and that he is no longer taking the advice of whoever told him to give 5 years/ $44 million to Juan Pierre. There had better be some money left over to secure talents like Kemp, Ethier, Loney, DeWitt or LaRoche, catcher Russell Martin, and possibly Furcal long term.
Since his callup, DeWitt is hitting .325 through 39 games. He has hit four home runs and driven in 23, while scoring 22 times. DeWitt has held his own defensively, too, with a .953 fielding percentage. He has also proven himself to be the Dodgers’ best clutch performer at the plate since his callup. Don’t believe me? DeWitt has batted six times this season with the bases loaded, and has six hits. On May 19 DeWitt capped off a Dodgers comeback with a walk-off single off of reliever David Weathers to beat Cincinnati 6-5 on May 19. DeWitt went 2-5 in that game and drove in two of the LA runs. Every win the Dodgers can come up with will be of utmost importance in that division with the emergence of the D’Backs as the NL West’s best, and the Rockies cannot possibly stay dormant for much longer.
Another option has emerged as a potential candidate to push DeWitt and La Roche for the 3B job in the long term, as Terry Tiffee has been tearing up at Triple-A Las Vegas, hitting at a .412 clip over 44 games (182 at-bats) and driving in 36 runs. This potential three headed monster at third base composed of DeWitt, La Roche, and Tiffee will inevitably make one, if not two, of the trio expendable should the right offer come along and should the organization definitively decide who will be the third baseman of the future, with Tony Abreu continuing in his utility role. A shift for any of the three to first base is simply not going to happen because James Loney will be covering the far right side of the LA infield for years to come. Also, a shift of any of the three to an outfield position is not likely because that area is already overcrowded with Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp, all of whom should have a starting role in the Major Leagues. The Dodgers should be reluctant to give up both Kemp and Ethier and are stuck with Pierre for three more years and Jones (who needs surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right knee) for at least one more year. A shift to shortstop pending the departure of current SS Rafael Furcal is also unlikely for any of the three young third basemen.
Another possible trading chip come the deadline, should he show he can stay healthy for more than nine consecutive days, will be Nomar Garciaparra as his 2 year deal expires at the end of this season.
The most highly touted of the DeWitt/ La Roche/ Tiffee trio over the past year or so seems to have been La Roche. However, DeWitt certainly is making a case for himself. He has been, arguably, the most pleasant surprise for the Dodgers and at third base around the league, especially considering his offensive performance and his young age (22). In my opinion, the most likely to depart is Tiffee given the fact that he is already 29.
I certainly hope that GM Ned Coletti is keeping a close eye on the situation and that he is no longer taking the advice of whoever told him to give 5 years/ $44 million to Juan Pierre. There had better be some money left over to secure talents like Kemp, Ethier, Loney, DeWitt or LaRoche, catcher Russell Martin, and possibly Furcal long term.
Friday, May 9, 2008
5 New Oakland Aces, Thanks to Mr. Moneyball
Love him or hate him, nobody puts together a ball club like A's GM Billy Beane. I, for one, am a huge fan of his. A lightning rod for controversy, Beane approaches his management duties for the Oakland franchise with frugality and often comes across as looking dispassionately upon his players as mere trading chips. Beane’s free agent signings are usually inexpensive veterans with lower market value, such as Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas. Piazza was plagued by injuries last season, but thanks to Beane’s reluctance, or even outright refusal to commit to a long-term contract, Piazza was sent packing after just one year. In his first tour of duty with the A’s in 2006, Thomas hit 39 home runs and drove in 114 runs, propelling the Oakland offense into the ALCS, while batting at a .270 clip. The latest free agent surprise, besides resigning Thomas for the rest of the season, was the pickup of Mike Sweeney to DH at times and platoon at first base with rookie Daric Barton. To date, Sweeny is hitting .305 with a pair of homers and 10 RBI. Not spectacular numbers, but keep in mind that his job is now to mentor and not to play every day role.
One thing I have learned following the career of Billy Beane is that it is never wise to count his team out of the playoff race – remember the miraculous run from August 13 – September 4 in 2002 during which they reeled off 20 consecutive wins to take the division. Even when his team enters the year with a starting lineup composed of C – Kurt Suzuki, 1B Daric Barton, 2B – Mark Ellis, 3B – John Hannahan, SS – Bobby Crosby, LF – Emil Brown, CF – Ryan Sweeney/Chris Denorfia, RF – Travis Buck, and a starting rotation composed of Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, D.L mainstay Rich Harden, and rookie lefties Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, Beane and his homemade club can be expected to make things interesting in the AL West. Currently, the A’s are tied for first place in the division, and have the second most wins in baseball with the aforementioned lineup. The only difference is that Justin Duchscherer has taken the injured Rich Harden's spot in the rotation.
At the Winter Meetings, where Beane is typically a popular man to bargain with, he swung a deal in which he unloaded right-handed ace Dan Haren and minor league pitcher Connor Robertson to the Diamondbacks for LHPs Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter and OFs Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez. Eveland and Smith have already begun to quietly establish themselves as two of the premier young lefty hurlers in baseball. Through seven starts, Eveland has compiled an ERA of only 3.05, while scattering just 33 hits (including only 1 home run, in the American League, nonetheless) over 41.1 innings. Smith, like Eveland is also greatly responsible for the quick start the A’s have gotten off to. Smith, through his first six starts is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA. He has allowed just 27 hits in 39 innings, while compiling a K:BB of 31:13.
This past January, Beane sent Oakland fan favorite OF/1B Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox. In the deal, he stripped Sox GM Kenny Williams of LHP prospect and strikeout whiz Gio Gonzalez, in addition to pitching prospect Fautino de los Santos and startingCF Ryan Sweeney. Swisher, who hit 36 home runs last year, is currently batting at the Mendoza Line with only 8 RBI.
Shortly after the Swisher to Chicago deal, Beane dumped more salary obligations by dealing injury risk Mark Kotsay to the suddenly Center-fielderless Atlanta Braves for reliever Joey Devine, non-roster right handed pitcher Jamie Richmond, and, of course, cash considerations.
Perhaps Beane’s best off-season move was signing OF Emil Brown from Kansas City to what else, but a one-year deal, furthering my case that Billy Beane is the king of low risk-high reward free agent signings. Brown led the Royals in RBI in each of his three years there. He struggled mightily in his first five years in the majors (1997-2001) and did not play Major League Baseball from 2002-2004. However, his career as an offensive threat exploded as a result of Brown’s earning his first everyday duties over the course on an entire season in 2005, a year in which he hit .286 with 17 homers and 86 RBI. Driving in 86 runs in the Kansas City Royals’ 2005 lineup was no easy task. Oh, one more thing: Emil Brown now ranks second in the American League in RBI behind only Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers (both are on my fantasy team).
Also in the rotation are RHP’s Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, and converted reliever Justin Duchscherer. Blanton has the staff’s highest ERA at 3.82, hardly a disgrace. He is a true innings eater and has compiled at least 32 starts and 194 innings in each of his three seasons in the bigs. Last year he really showed his durability, pitching 230 innings for Bob Geren’s rotation that was wrought with uncertainty. Gaudin pitched 199.1 innings last season, making 34 starts in his first full season as a starting pitcher. Gaudin, historically has experienced some control issues during his time with the Devil Rays and Blue Jays, but appears to have sorted out these problems this year. Gaudin’s K:BB is 26:10, better than the 2:1 standard. Also, the fact that Gaudin has retired only 26 batters via strikeout over six starts and 36 innings, thus far, indicates that he is getting outs in other ways, such as via ground balls and soft fly balls.
Rich Harden began the year as the most talented pitcher on the staff, but the A’s were faced with the question of not if, but when Harden would land on the DL with his perpetual right shoulder woes. That question was answered after Harden made just two starts this season. In those starts, he allowed only one run over 11 innings and struck out 15 batters. His fastball was in the 93-94 mph range and his breaking ball was near untouchable. He can throw all of his pitches in any count for strikes. Since the conclusion of the 2005 season, Harden has made just 15 starts and three relief appearances. During that time, however, he was extremely effective, compiling an ERA of 3.24.
Duchscherer has been lights out in filling the void predictably left by Harden. Coming into the year, Duchscherer had not made a start in the big leagues in five years. In his four starts this season since Harden went down, the 30 year old righty boasts an ERA of just 2.45 with fewer hits than innings pitched and a K:BB of 18:5. Harden's return to the rotation, which will probably be sometime in the next two or three days after he is activated from the 15-day DL, will most likely push one of the current five starters to the bullpen. Blanton is a sure thing to stay in the rotation, as are Eveland and Smith, in my opinion. My guess is that either Duchscherer will return to the pen where he began the year, or Gaudin will be the odd man out, as he also has a good deal of relief experience. Gaudin pitched primarily as a reliever for the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, and A's through the 2006 season before being converted to a starter last year. If this is the case, don't expect Gaudin to be happy.
To many, the Oakland pitching staff of the 2002 campaign was one of the best in recent memory. This staff included Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. Also in the mix was the young Rich Harden. Beane allowed the former three to move on, passing on matching the 7 year/ $126 million deal Zito fielded from San Francisco. He also peddled Hudson and Mulder. Now, one can argue that the staff he has now is better than the one from six years ago. It will be interesting in the next few years to see how effective these youngsters will be and what value they will have in the trade market in the years to come as they all enter their prime years. Whatever the case, Beane will keep his eye on the situation as he continues to garner hot prospects and the games best sleepers.
On the Side:
The A’s system over the past decade and a half has produced the following MLB standouts:
OF’s: Jermaine Dye, Mark Kotsay, Bobby Kielty, Nick Swisher, Matt Stairs, Ryan Ludwick
IF’s: Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, Mark McGwire, Dan Johnson, Daric Barton, Jason Giambi, Scott Hatteberg
Pitchers: Huston Street, Keith Foulke, Billy Koch. Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Ted Lilly, and Aaron Harang
One thing I have learned following the career of Billy Beane is that it is never wise to count his team out of the playoff race – remember the miraculous run from August 13 – September 4 in 2002 during which they reeled off 20 consecutive wins to take the division. Even when his team enters the year with a starting lineup composed of C – Kurt Suzuki, 1B Daric Barton, 2B – Mark Ellis, 3B – John Hannahan, SS – Bobby Crosby, LF – Emil Brown, CF – Ryan Sweeney/Chris Denorfia, RF – Travis Buck, and a starting rotation composed of Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, D.L mainstay Rich Harden, and rookie lefties Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, Beane and his homemade club can be expected to make things interesting in the AL West. Currently, the A’s are tied for first place in the division, and have the second most wins in baseball with the aforementioned lineup. The only difference is that Justin Duchscherer has taken the injured Rich Harden's spot in the rotation.
At the Winter Meetings, where Beane is typically a popular man to bargain with, he swung a deal in which he unloaded right-handed ace Dan Haren and minor league pitcher Connor Robertson to the Diamondbacks for LHPs Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter and OFs Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez. Eveland and Smith have already begun to quietly establish themselves as two of the premier young lefty hurlers in baseball. Through seven starts, Eveland has compiled an ERA of only 3.05, while scattering just 33 hits (including only 1 home run, in the American League, nonetheless) over 41.1 innings. Smith, like Eveland is also greatly responsible for the quick start the A’s have gotten off to. Smith, through his first six starts is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA. He has allowed just 27 hits in 39 innings, while compiling a K:BB of 31:13.
This past January, Beane sent Oakland fan favorite OF/1B Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox. In the deal, he stripped Sox GM Kenny Williams of LHP prospect and strikeout whiz Gio Gonzalez, in addition to pitching prospect Fautino de los Santos and startingCF Ryan Sweeney. Swisher, who hit 36 home runs last year, is currently batting at the Mendoza Line with only 8 RBI.
Shortly after the Swisher to Chicago deal, Beane dumped more salary obligations by dealing injury risk Mark Kotsay to the suddenly Center-fielderless Atlanta Braves for reliever Joey Devine, non-roster right handed pitcher Jamie Richmond, and, of course, cash considerations.
Perhaps Beane’s best off-season move was signing OF Emil Brown from Kansas City to what else, but a one-year deal, furthering my case that Billy Beane is the king of low risk-high reward free agent signings. Brown led the Royals in RBI in each of his three years there. He struggled mightily in his first five years in the majors (1997-2001) and did not play Major League Baseball from 2002-2004. However, his career as an offensive threat exploded as a result of Brown’s earning his first everyday duties over the course on an entire season in 2005, a year in which he hit .286 with 17 homers and 86 RBI. Driving in 86 runs in the Kansas City Royals’ 2005 lineup was no easy task. Oh, one more thing: Emil Brown now ranks second in the American League in RBI behind only Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers (both are on my fantasy team).
Also in the rotation are RHP’s Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, and converted reliever Justin Duchscherer. Blanton has the staff’s highest ERA at 3.82, hardly a disgrace. He is a true innings eater and has compiled at least 32 starts and 194 innings in each of his three seasons in the bigs. Last year he really showed his durability, pitching 230 innings for Bob Geren’s rotation that was wrought with uncertainty. Gaudin pitched 199.1 innings last season, making 34 starts in his first full season as a starting pitcher. Gaudin, historically has experienced some control issues during his time with the Devil Rays and Blue Jays, but appears to have sorted out these problems this year. Gaudin’s K:BB is 26:10, better than the 2:1 standard. Also, the fact that Gaudin has retired only 26 batters via strikeout over six starts and 36 innings, thus far, indicates that he is getting outs in other ways, such as via ground balls and soft fly balls.
Rich Harden began the year as the most talented pitcher on the staff, but the A’s were faced with the question of not if, but when Harden would land on the DL with his perpetual right shoulder woes. That question was answered after Harden made just two starts this season. In those starts, he allowed only one run over 11 innings and struck out 15 batters. His fastball was in the 93-94 mph range and his breaking ball was near untouchable. He can throw all of his pitches in any count for strikes. Since the conclusion of the 2005 season, Harden has made just 15 starts and three relief appearances. During that time, however, he was extremely effective, compiling an ERA of 3.24.
Duchscherer has been lights out in filling the void predictably left by Harden. Coming into the year, Duchscherer had not made a start in the big leagues in five years. In his four starts this season since Harden went down, the 30 year old righty boasts an ERA of just 2.45 with fewer hits than innings pitched and a K:BB of 18:5. Harden's return to the rotation, which will probably be sometime in the next two or three days after he is activated from the 15-day DL, will most likely push one of the current five starters to the bullpen. Blanton is a sure thing to stay in the rotation, as are Eveland and Smith, in my opinion. My guess is that either Duchscherer will return to the pen where he began the year, or Gaudin will be the odd man out, as he also has a good deal of relief experience. Gaudin pitched primarily as a reliever for the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, and A's through the 2006 season before being converted to a starter last year. If this is the case, don't expect Gaudin to be happy.
To many, the Oakland pitching staff of the 2002 campaign was one of the best in recent memory. This staff included Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. Also in the mix was the young Rich Harden. Beane allowed the former three to move on, passing on matching the 7 year/ $126 million deal Zito fielded from San Francisco. He also peddled Hudson and Mulder. Now, one can argue that the staff he has now is better than the one from six years ago. It will be interesting in the next few years to see how effective these youngsters will be and what value they will have in the trade market in the years to come as they all enter their prime years. Whatever the case, Beane will keep his eye on the situation as he continues to garner hot prospects and the games best sleepers.
On the Side:
The A’s system over the past decade and a half has produced the following MLB standouts:
OF’s: Jermaine Dye, Mark Kotsay, Bobby Kielty, Nick Swisher, Matt Stairs, Ryan Ludwick
IF’s: Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, Mark McGwire, Dan Johnson, Daric Barton, Jason Giambi, Scott Hatteberg
Pitchers: Huston Street, Keith Foulke, Billy Koch. Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Ted Lilly, and Aaron Harang
Monday, April 28, 2008
NHL's Biggest Contributors Have Names Big and Small
In honor of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the second round of which is now underway, I will be discussing the key contributors on several teams, without whom playoff runs and, in some cases even playoff hopes, would have been dead weeks or months ago. Many of these names are unknown to the casual fan and exist only in the shadows on names like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Getzlaf, Datsyuk, Jagr, and Thornton.
Below these superstar, high-scoring names lies a second tier of major talent that includes names such as Chris Drury of the New York Rangers, Patrick Marleau and Mike Grier of San Jose, Mike Ribiero of Dallas, Ryan Whitney of Pittsburgh, Tomas Holmstrom of Detroit, and many others.
Drury, throughout his years with Colorado, Calgary, and Buffalo, established himself as an elite offensive playmaking talent with clutch scoring ability. Drury is a rare player in that his game is one that combines gritty play along the boards with finesse passing and an extraordinary goal-scoring capability. He emerged as one of the league’s true number one centers during his tenure with the Sabres and earned himself a long-term, high dollar contract with the Rangers last offseason. In addition to his offensive patience and slickness with the puck, Drury is an excellent defender. He is arguably the best penalty-killing forward in the National Hockey League. His patience and hockey sense are evident in his defensive zone coverage capacity. Watching Drury play defensively, especially as a penalty killer, it is apparent that he has an exceptional feel for the opposition’s passing and shooting lanes. He has a quick stick and explosive speed, which allow him to fill these lanes and force the puck carrier to either hold the puck longer, or to make a mistake. He is also a selfless defender, and will sacrifice his body to stop any shot from getting to the net. Finally, Drury is one of the best face-off men in the business. In every key defensive situation, Drury can be seen on the ice, winning defensive zone draws with his quick hands, feet, and body positioning in the circle.
Grier is a player who is not as talented as Drury offensively, but is comparable defensively to the aforementioned centerman. He is a defensive specialist who is an asset to any team’s top penalty killing unit. During his time with Buffalo, he combined with Drury to make up Buffalo’s top PK forward pair.
Michael Ribiero of the Dallas Stars is one of the most underrated players in the playoffs right now. He has emerged as the Stars’ most effective centerman. The 28 year old tallied career highs in goals (27), assists (56), and points (83) in 76 games to lead the team. He also contributed 7 goals on the power play this past season and has eclipsed Mike Modano and others as the Stars’ premier scorer.
Another big-time player to watch is Defenseman Ryan Whitney of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Much of the credit for the team’s high-scoring offense is attributed, and rightfully so, to forwards Sidney Crosby, team scoring leader Evgeni Malkin, deadline acquisition Marian Hossa, veteran sniper Petr Sykora, and big gun point-man Sergei Gonchar. Whitney played 76 games for the Pen’s this year and registered 12 goals and 28 assists for 40 points as a defenseman, including 7 goals on the power play. Coach Michel Therrien utilizes Whitney’s heavy shot and slick puck handling/passing abilities to quarterback one of the team’s powerplay units, in a way similar to the manner in which Gonchar is used at the point on the other unit.
The Detroit Red Wings’ tough, grinder of a Left Winger, Tomas Holmstrom, is one of my personal favorite players in the National Hockey League to watch. His contributions offensively to the team reach far beyond his goal scoring abilities. Holmstrom is one of the toughest, grittiest, and gutsiest players in the league. His job description is simple: obstruct the goaltender, bury rebounds, and get a tip on shots from the point and perimeter. His hand-eye coordination is second to none in the league, and he is simply the best at working defensemen in front of the net and getting body position below the hashmarks to set an effective screen. Other big men, such as Thomas Vanek and Paul Gaustad of Buffalo, watch film of Holmstrom under the direction of Sabres’ head coach Lindy Ruff as a means of learning how to best work in front of the net. For a player of Vanek’s caliber and pure scoring ability to study Holmstrom’s technique to improve, one can conclude that Holmstrom is one of, if not the, best in the league at his job. He just scores in the shadow of show-stopping tallies by players like Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Johan Franzen. He also has one of the most difficult and physically taxing jobs in the league. As he obstructs the goaltender’s line of vision, he is constantly getting beaten up by defenseman in front and is vulnerable to errant shots, as he does his work in the shooting lanes of defensemen teeing off from the point.
There is also another group of players I would like to acknowledge in this column, whose names don’t find their way into many blogs or onto many scoresheets. These players are a part of what I call the third tier contributors. They possess the intangible abilities and attitudes that fuel playoff runs and provide the energy necessary to propel teams through the regular season. These guys collectively are the epitome of consistency, while the big time scorers who hoard what little air time is available on ESPN and the Versus network endure cold stretches and scoring droughts. They do not lead the team in ice time, but make the absolute most of the time they get. I am talking about players like Sami Kapanen of the Flyers, Kris Draper of the Red Wings, Rob Niedermeyer of the Ducks, Mike Fisher of the Senators, my personal favorite energy player, Adam Mair of the Buffalo Sabres, and Defenseman Brooks Orpik of the Penguins.
Kapanen played in 78 games for the Flyers this year and recorded only five goals and three assists for the entire season. However, He served as one of Philly’s prime penalty killers. Kapanen’s legs never stop moving, and they are always moving fast and hard. He contributes pressure and up-tempo shifts, which are more important than simply registering more points on what is arguably the most offensively deep team in the NHL. Often, Flyers’ coach John Stevens uses Kapanen and some combination of two other gritty, defensively sound forwards such as Jim Dowd or Mike Richards on what I call “follow-up shifts.” These are the shifts after your team scores, especially in a tight game. The goal of the follow-up shift is to gain possession of the puck on the faceoff and maintain offensive pressure for the duration of the shift in order to carry the momentum, thwarting any immediate comeback attempt by the opposition.
Detroit’s Draper often centers the second line, but plays in key defensive situations, such as when the Red Wings hold a slim lead or are tied with their opponent. He possesses scoring ability, but is most valuable to the Wings anchoring a solid second line to keep the pressure on the opposition following strong offensive shifts by their first line comprised of Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Daniel Cleary. Draper’s gritty style of play nicely complements that of linemate Tomas Holmstrom, whom I described above.
Ottawa C Mike Fisher contributes more offensively than the others mentioned just above, but his defensive contributions and knack for penalty killing make him one of the elite defensive and special teams players in the league. He is also an explosive and opportunistic player on the penalty kill, and is a constant threat to pick off a pass or block a shot and dart down the ice unimpeded. His specialties, physical play, and all around outstanding talent level draws, from me, a close parallel to Chris Drury, who will always receive my highest praise. Though Fisher’s name is often forgotten in the midst of big guns like Daniel Alfredsson, Dany Heatley, and Jason Spezza, he is, in my opinion the most valuable all-around player on the Senators’ roster.
Adam Mair of the Buffalo Sabres has virtually no goal scoring ability, but he generates offense. He is a reliable centerman, and perhaps the best fourth-line center in the league. Many are surprised to see that Mair, who scored only five goals this past year, take shifts late in games in which the Sabres either trail or are tied. He routinely anchors a line with snipers on his wings such as Ales Kotalik, Danny Paille, Drew Stafford, and big man, Steve Bernier. Mair’s never-quit style and attitude provides valuable energy to his teammates on the ice and on the bench. He is ready to fill any role, whether it be to put pressure on the opposition’s defensemen, finish some hard checks on big forwards in chippy games, or lead a line to score a big goal, as he did when assisting on Begin’s goal against the Bruins late in the year to force overtime and keep Buffalo’s playoff hopes alive. Mair is also a middle-weight fighter in the league who will drop the gloves and go toe to toe with legitimate goons. He is a special role player for head coach Lindy Ruff. One image of Mair that is forever etched in my memory is his role in the Buffalo vs. Ottawa brawl in February, 2007. After Drury took a dirty hit from Ottawa’s Chris Neil, Ruff sent out a line of Mair, Sabres’ heavyweight Andrew Peters, and the hard hitting Patrick Kaleta to fire back at Ottawa’s top line of Alfredsson, Heatley, and Spezza. Mair immediately went after Spezza upon the drop of the puck and while being tackled to the ice by three Senators, Mair carried out Ruff’s orders and fired punches at Spezza. Point is, Mair gets the job done, whatever it may be, whatever it takes.
The final player I would like to mention whose play to often goes unnoticed is Pittsburgh defenseman Brooks Orpik. Orpik is a true shut-down defenseman, who can play with anyone as his partner and make him a better defenseman. Goals from Orpik are very few and far between, but goals prevented help the team as much, if not more. Orpik is a tough, shot-blocking defenseman with a knack for making big hits.
Below these superstar, high-scoring names lies a second tier of major talent that includes names such as Chris Drury of the New York Rangers, Patrick Marleau and Mike Grier of San Jose, Mike Ribiero of Dallas, Ryan Whitney of Pittsburgh, Tomas Holmstrom of Detroit, and many others.
Drury, throughout his years with Colorado, Calgary, and Buffalo, established himself as an elite offensive playmaking talent with clutch scoring ability. Drury is a rare player in that his game is one that combines gritty play along the boards with finesse passing and an extraordinary goal-scoring capability. He emerged as one of the league’s true number one centers during his tenure with the Sabres and earned himself a long-term, high dollar contract with the Rangers last offseason. In addition to his offensive patience and slickness with the puck, Drury is an excellent defender. He is arguably the best penalty-killing forward in the National Hockey League. His patience and hockey sense are evident in his defensive zone coverage capacity. Watching Drury play defensively, especially as a penalty killer, it is apparent that he has an exceptional feel for the opposition’s passing and shooting lanes. He has a quick stick and explosive speed, which allow him to fill these lanes and force the puck carrier to either hold the puck longer, or to make a mistake. He is also a selfless defender, and will sacrifice his body to stop any shot from getting to the net. Finally, Drury is one of the best face-off men in the business. In every key defensive situation, Drury can be seen on the ice, winning defensive zone draws with his quick hands, feet, and body positioning in the circle.
Grier is a player who is not as talented as Drury offensively, but is comparable defensively to the aforementioned centerman. He is a defensive specialist who is an asset to any team’s top penalty killing unit. During his time with Buffalo, he combined with Drury to make up Buffalo’s top PK forward pair.
Michael Ribiero of the Dallas Stars is one of the most underrated players in the playoffs right now. He has emerged as the Stars’ most effective centerman. The 28 year old tallied career highs in goals (27), assists (56), and points (83) in 76 games to lead the team. He also contributed 7 goals on the power play this past season and has eclipsed Mike Modano and others as the Stars’ premier scorer.
Another big-time player to watch is Defenseman Ryan Whitney of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Much of the credit for the team’s high-scoring offense is attributed, and rightfully so, to forwards Sidney Crosby, team scoring leader Evgeni Malkin, deadline acquisition Marian Hossa, veteran sniper Petr Sykora, and big gun point-man Sergei Gonchar. Whitney played 76 games for the Pen’s this year and registered 12 goals and 28 assists for 40 points as a defenseman, including 7 goals on the power play. Coach Michel Therrien utilizes Whitney’s heavy shot and slick puck handling/passing abilities to quarterback one of the team’s powerplay units, in a way similar to the manner in which Gonchar is used at the point on the other unit.
The Detroit Red Wings’ tough, grinder of a Left Winger, Tomas Holmstrom, is one of my personal favorite players in the National Hockey League to watch. His contributions offensively to the team reach far beyond his goal scoring abilities. Holmstrom is one of the toughest, grittiest, and gutsiest players in the league. His job description is simple: obstruct the goaltender, bury rebounds, and get a tip on shots from the point and perimeter. His hand-eye coordination is second to none in the league, and he is simply the best at working defensemen in front of the net and getting body position below the hashmarks to set an effective screen. Other big men, such as Thomas Vanek and Paul Gaustad of Buffalo, watch film of Holmstrom under the direction of Sabres’ head coach Lindy Ruff as a means of learning how to best work in front of the net. For a player of Vanek’s caliber and pure scoring ability to study Holmstrom’s technique to improve, one can conclude that Holmstrom is one of, if not the, best in the league at his job. He just scores in the shadow of show-stopping tallies by players like Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Johan Franzen. He also has one of the most difficult and physically taxing jobs in the league. As he obstructs the goaltender’s line of vision, he is constantly getting beaten up by defenseman in front and is vulnerable to errant shots, as he does his work in the shooting lanes of defensemen teeing off from the point.
There is also another group of players I would like to acknowledge in this column, whose names don’t find their way into many blogs or onto many scoresheets. These players are a part of what I call the third tier contributors. They possess the intangible abilities and attitudes that fuel playoff runs and provide the energy necessary to propel teams through the regular season. These guys collectively are the epitome of consistency, while the big time scorers who hoard what little air time is available on ESPN and the Versus network endure cold stretches and scoring droughts. They do not lead the team in ice time, but make the absolute most of the time they get. I am talking about players like Sami Kapanen of the Flyers, Kris Draper of the Red Wings, Rob Niedermeyer of the Ducks, Mike Fisher of the Senators, my personal favorite energy player, Adam Mair of the Buffalo Sabres, and Defenseman Brooks Orpik of the Penguins.
Kapanen played in 78 games for the Flyers this year and recorded only five goals and three assists for the entire season. However, He served as one of Philly’s prime penalty killers. Kapanen’s legs never stop moving, and they are always moving fast and hard. He contributes pressure and up-tempo shifts, which are more important than simply registering more points on what is arguably the most offensively deep team in the NHL. Often, Flyers’ coach John Stevens uses Kapanen and some combination of two other gritty, defensively sound forwards such as Jim Dowd or Mike Richards on what I call “follow-up shifts.” These are the shifts after your team scores, especially in a tight game. The goal of the follow-up shift is to gain possession of the puck on the faceoff and maintain offensive pressure for the duration of the shift in order to carry the momentum, thwarting any immediate comeback attempt by the opposition.
Detroit’s Draper often centers the second line, but plays in key defensive situations, such as when the Red Wings hold a slim lead or are tied with their opponent. He possesses scoring ability, but is most valuable to the Wings anchoring a solid second line to keep the pressure on the opposition following strong offensive shifts by their first line comprised of Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Daniel Cleary. Draper’s gritty style of play nicely complements that of linemate Tomas Holmstrom, whom I described above.
Ottawa C Mike Fisher contributes more offensively than the others mentioned just above, but his defensive contributions and knack for penalty killing make him one of the elite defensive and special teams players in the league. He is also an explosive and opportunistic player on the penalty kill, and is a constant threat to pick off a pass or block a shot and dart down the ice unimpeded. His specialties, physical play, and all around outstanding talent level draws, from me, a close parallel to Chris Drury, who will always receive my highest praise. Though Fisher’s name is often forgotten in the midst of big guns like Daniel Alfredsson, Dany Heatley, and Jason Spezza, he is, in my opinion the most valuable all-around player on the Senators’ roster.
Adam Mair of the Buffalo Sabres has virtually no goal scoring ability, but he generates offense. He is a reliable centerman, and perhaps the best fourth-line center in the league. Many are surprised to see that Mair, who scored only five goals this past year, take shifts late in games in which the Sabres either trail or are tied. He routinely anchors a line with snipers on his wings such as Ales Kotalik, Danny Paille, Drew Stafford, and big man, Steve Bernier. Mair’s never-quit style and attitude provides valuable energy to his teammates on the ice and on the bench. He is ready to fill any role, whether it be to put pressure on the opposition’s defensemen, finish some hard checks on big forwards in chippy games, or lead a line to score a big goal, as he did when assisting on Begin’s goal against the Bruins late in the year to force overtime and keep Buffalo’s playoff hopes alive. Mair is also a middle-weight fighter in the league who will drop the gloves and go toe to toe with legitimate goons. He is a special role player for head coach Lindy Ruff. One image of Mair that is forever etched in my memory is his role in the Buffalo vs. Ottawa brawl in February, 2007. After Drury took a dirty hit from Ottawa’s Chris Neil, Ruff sent out a line of Mair, Sabres’ heavyweight Andrew Peters, and the hard hitting Patrick Kaleta to fire back at Ottawa’s top line of Alfredsson, Heatley, and Spezza. Mair immediately went after Spezza upon the drop of the puck and while being tackled to the ice by three Senators, Mair carried out Ruff’s orders and fired punches at Spezza. Point is, Mair gets the job done, whatever it may be, whatever it takes.
The final player I would like to mention whose play to often goes unnoticed is Pittsburgh defenseman Brooks Orpik. Orpik is a true shut-down defenseman, who can play with anyone as his partner and make him a better defenseman. Goals from Orpik are very few and far between, but goals prevented help the team as much, if not more. Orpik is a tough, shot-blocking defenseman with a knack for making big hits.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Tiger's Offense Alone not to Blame
Despite the victories they have squeaked out in the past two nights against the struggling Twins, the Detroit Tigers are showing signs of being a huge disappointment given the potential of their dynamic offense that essentially does not feature a bottom of the order. The Tigers' dreadful start can certainly be attributed to a lack of offense. They are supposed to have a lineup filled with run-producers from top to bottom. As of 4/16/08, Placido Polanco, Gary Sheffield, Miguel Cabrera, Ivan Rodriguez, Jacque Jones, and Marcus Thames are all hitting .216 or lower. RBI totals are extremely low as Sheffield (2 RBI), Ordonez (6), Cabrera (5), Edgar Renteria (4), and Carlos Guillen (6) are not driving in runs, partially because nobody is ever on base, and partly because they are just not hitting. Polanco, Renteria, and OF Clete Thomas have all seen time in the top two spots in the order, combining for just 9 runs scored. Polanco, a mainstay in the 2-hole, has scored just 2 runs, as has Thomas. Thomas has batted leadoff for the Tigers eight times this year (all 8 of his starts), carrying a .306 batting average, and has crossed the plate only twice. That is how collectively unproductive the Detroit offense has been, thus far.
Additionally, through 14 games, they are 4-10 and have been shut out 4 times. The list of starting pitchers who blanked the Tigers' supposedly high powered offense this season includes Kansas City number two starter Brian Bannister (3.66 career ERA, 3rd season), Daisuke Matsuzaka (4.22 career ERA, 2nd season), Gavin Floyd…remember him? (6.00 career ERA, 3rd full season), and Javier Vazquez (4.27 career ERA, 11th season). Floyd’s and Vazquez’s shutouts of the Tigers’ lineup came on back to back days, in which the White Sox outscored Detroit 18-0. All four of the aforementioned pitchers are right-handers. In fact, the Tigers’ generally right-handed lineup did not win a game until their eighth contest of the season in which they beat Boston lefty Jon Lester. Polanco, Sheffield, Ordonez, Cabrera, Renteria, Thames, Rodriguez, and Brandon Inge are all right handed. Only Jones and Thomas, who do not play every day, are left handed hitters, and Guillen is the only switch hitter in the lineup. Upon Curtis Granderson’s return, a much-needed speedy left hander will be added to the top of the lineup.
Pitching-wise it doesn't get much better. Ace Justin Verlander’s ERA has soared to 6.52 through three starts, and Kenny Rogers’ ERA is 6.75 and has an 8:8 ratio of K:BB in three starts. Jeremy Bonderman boasts the staff’s best ERA of 4.58 and has the same K:BB as Rogers. Thirty year old lefty Nate Robertson’s ERA has ballooned to 7.02, as he is 0-1 through three starts after inking his recent three-year extension with the club. Dontrelle Willis just joined the Tigers’ two key setup men, flamethrowing righty Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney, on the DL. Willis’ ERA topped all at the time of his injury at 7.20. Twenty-six year old rookie Armando Galarraga makes his season debut tonight for Detroit in Cleveland, where, by the way, he is set to face C.C. Sabathia. He carries a 6.23 ERA in three career appearances, including one start in 2007 for Texas, into tonight’s game.
In any case, don't be surprised when the bats come alive in the next few games.
Additionally, through 14 games, they are 4-10 and have been shut out 4 times. The list of starting pitchers who blanked the Tigers' supposedly high powered offense this season includes Kansas City number two starter Brian Bannister (3.66 career ERA, 3rd season), Daisuke Matsuzaka (4.22 career ERA, 2nd season), Gavin Floyd…remember him? (6.00 career ERA, 3rd full season), and Javier Vazquez (4.27 career ERA, 11th season). Floyd’s and Vazquez’s shutouts of the Tigers’ lineup came on back to back days, in which the White Sox outscored Detroit 18-0. All four of the aforementioned pitchers are right-handers. In fact, the Tigers’ generally right-handed lineup did not win a game until their eighth contest of the season in which they beat Boston lefty Jon Lester. Polanco, Sheffield, Ordonez, Cabrera, Renteria, Thames, Rodriguez, and Brandon Inge are all right handed. Only Jones and Thomas, who do not play every day, are left handed hitters, and Guillen is the only switch hitter in the lineup. Upon Curtis Granderson’s return, a much-needed speedy left hander will be added to the top of the lineup.
Pitching-wise it doesn't get much better. Ace Justin Verlander’s ERA has soared to 6.52 through three starts, and Kenny Rogers’ ERA is 6.75 and has an 8:8 ratio of K:BB in three starts. Jeremy Bonderman boasts the staff’s best ERA of 4.58 and has the same K:BB as Rogers. Thirty year old lefty Nate Robertson’s ERA has ballooned to 7.02, as he is 0-1 through three starts after inking his recent three-year extension with the club. Dontrelle Willis just joined the Tigers’ two key setup men, flamethrowing righty Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney, on the DL. Willis’ ERA topped all at the time of his injury at 7.20. Twenty-six year old rookie Armando Galarraga makes his season debut tonight for Detroit in Cleveland, where, by the way, he is set to face C.C. Sabathia. He carries a 6.23 ERA in three career appearances, including one start in 2007 for Texas, into tonight’s game.
In any case, don't be surprised when the bats come alive in the next few games.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Covering Ground or Taking up Space?
My topic today is the LA Dodgers' outfield. I have seen CF Andruw Jones' new, ever-expanding physique, and I am not impressed. The Dodgers' website lists him at 6'1", 210, and looking at him, I find that hard to believe.
His career fielding percentage is .991. That number hasn't declined this year since he has not committed an error, and he has not committed more than 3 errors in a season since 2001. These are great stats but they are not indicative of the fact that his range has declined greatly over the past four years or so. Oh, and he is only 30. More balls are dropping in front of him and in the gaps. Not only has he become a defensive liability, but he is not hitting my weight (160, give or take), let alone his own. His average is .100 as he has 4 hits in 40 at-bats through 12 games thus far, only one of which went for extra bases (a double). He has also struck out 14 times in those 12 games.
The Dodgers really have an interesting dilemma in their outfield. Juan Pierre signed a 5 year/$44 million contract going into last season, so he has three expensive years remaining after this season. They committed to Jones for two years and were the only team dumb enough to deal seriously with his agent, Scott Boras. They also continue to hype prospect Matt Kemp. He is a big right hander who hits for power to all fields and is capable of hitting for high average as well, although he has been inconsistent in his stints in the majors.
They also have a guy I have liked for a couple of years named Andre Ethier who is a left handed hitter. He has good pop in his bat and hits for high average. Defensively, is an average corner outfielder. His playing time is really being compromised because of the contracts dished out to Jones and Pierre. He is 25 and is beginning his third full season with a .295 career average and does not strike out much.
They also have a young, switch-hitting fifth outfielder named Delwyn Young, not to be confused with Twins' outfielder Delmon Young. He is also 25 years old and has almost no time in the bigs. In limited time last year with the Dodgers, he was able to collect 13 hits in 34 at-bats, striking out only 5 times and homering twice.
Also, I am sure you are interested in the Dodgers' minor league outfield depth situation, so:
In AAA Las Vegas
Jason Repko has also long been an outfielding prospect for the team, but is almost out of minor league options and probably does not have a future with the team. They also have a 23 year old named Xavier Paul, who might be one to keep and eye on.
Beyond that, there is not much going on in the Dodgers' system outfield-wise above Class A. GM Ned Coletti will either be eating some contracts over the next few years, or dealing away some young talent. It will be tough to unload Pierre's contract simply because of the pricetag and lack of production compared with that of his days in Florida. Andruw Jones might be appealing to some teams in the next year or so, but he will have to start hitting the ball the way he did for years in Atlanta. He will also have to find his second gear in the outfield and stop watching balls drop all around him.
His career fielding percentage is .991. That number hasn't declined this year since he has not committed an error, and he has not committed more than 3 errors in a season since 2001. These are great stats but they are not indicative of the fact that his range has declined greatly over the past four years or so. Oh, and he is only 30. More balls are dropping in front of him and in the gaps. Not only has he become a defensive liability, but he is not hitting my weight (160, give or take), let alone his own. His average is .100 as he has 4 hits in 40 at-bats through 12 games thus far, only one of which went for extra bases (a double). He has also struck out 14 times in those 12 games.
The Dodgers really have an interesting dilemma in their outfield. Juan Pierre signed a 5 year/$44 million contract going into last season, so he has three expensive years remaining after this season. They committed to Jones for two years and were the only team dumb enough to deal seriously with his agent, Scott Boras. They also continue to hype prospect Matt Kemp. He is a big right hander who hits for power to all fields and is capable of hitting for high average as well, although he has been inconsistent in his stints in the majors.
They also have a guy I have liked for a couple of years named Andre Ethier who is a left handed hitter. He has good pop in his bat and hits for high average. Defensively, is an average corner outfielder. His playing time is really being compromised because of the contracts dished out to Jones and Pierre. He is 25 and is beginning his third full season with a .295 career average and does not strike out much.
They also have a young, switch-hitting fifth outfielder named Delwyn Young, not to be confused with Twins' outfielder Delmon Young. He is also 25 years old and has almost no time in the bigs. In limited time last year with the Dodgers, he was able to collect 13 hits in 34 at-bats, striking out only 5 times and homering twice.
Also, I am sure you are interested in the Dodgers' minor league outfield depth situation, so:
In AAA Las Vegas
Jason Repko has also long been an outfielding prospect for the team, but is almost out of minor league options and probably does not have a future with the team. They also have a 23 year old named Xavier Paul, who might be one to keep and eye on.
Beyond that, there is not much going on in the Dodgers' system outfield-wise above Class A. GM Ned Coletti will either be eating some contracts over the next few years, or dealing away some young talent. It will be tough to unload Pierre's contract simply because of the pricetag and lack of production compared with that of his days in Florida. Andruw Jones might be appealing to some teams in the next year or so, but he will have to start hitting the ball the way he did for years in Atlanta. He will also have to find his second gear in the outfield and stop watching balls drop all around him.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
All The Small Things
I attended the Phillies game on 4/11/08 when the Phils hosted the Chicago Cubs. The night was highlighted by Pat Burrell’s continued thumping of opposing pitching and by Jimmy Rollins’ absence from the starting lineup for the third straight night with an ankle sprain. Burrell homered and doubled, each for the fourth time this season and drove in three runs boosting his total to 12 for the year. Also garnering some attention in the game was starting pitcher Brett Myers’ performance which was solid, contrary to popular belief early in the game. Myers settled down nicely after surrendering back to back solo homerun balls in the first to Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez.
For those of you not familiar with Myers’ temperament, giving up a homerun often translates to manifest frustration on the mound. A second homer in a row would normally be expected to precipitate the immediate implosion of any focus he might have maintained after the first blast. The fact that Myers maintained his composure, especially following back to back homeruns early in the game, should give manager Charlie Manuel a boost of confidence in his ace, who experienced some struggles in his first two starts. In those outings combined, he gave up seven earned runs and two homers over just ten innings. In that time, he struck out just six and walked five. Friday night against Chicago’s loaded lineup, which includes Alfonso Soriano, Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Mark DeRosa, and young stud receiver Geovany Soto, Myers scattered just five hits over eight innings, giving up three earned while striking out five and not walking a batter. In fact, the only walk surrendered in the ballgame came at the expense of Carlos Zambrano, as he issued the lone free pass of the contest to Shane Victorino.
I was pleased with Victorino’s performance filling the leadoff spot of the order in Rollins’ absence. Victorino led off the game with a single. Immediately, that put the Cubs in a situation where they had to be aware of Victorino’s speed. Lee held Victorino on the bag at first, while second baseman Mark DeRosa cheated towards second base at double play depth. This set of circumstances creates the optimal amount of empty space on the right side of the infield for the left handed Greg Dobbs, who was batting behind Victorino. Victorino took his lead off first in anticipation of a ball hit in the hole on the right side, and right fielder Daryle Ward was playing Dobbs extremely deep, just a few steps from the warning track. It was almost as if Lou Piniella had decided to concede third base to Victorino on a single to right field. Dobbs capped off the at-bat with a single to right, sending Victorino to third base with nobody out. The Phillies stranded Victorino there, but this little bit of offensive life prevented Zambrano from getting into too good of a rhythm for the Phillies to battle back against after falling behind 2-0 in the first inning.
Victonino finished the night 2-3 with a walk, and Dobbs, who also collected an RBI double to left-center field, exited the game early as Pedro Feliz was called upon to pinch hit against left hander Sean Marshall for Dobbs. The Feliz substitution also served to provide better defensive support later in the game
Now, the focal point of this particular column is Chase Utley. I highlighted some individual performances by Myers, Victorino, Dobbs, and Pat Burrell, but without Utley’s contributions, it would be a stretch to say that the Phillies would have won the game. Utley finished the night going 1-4, striking out twice, and leaving four runners on base. He even struck out into a double play in the first inning, leading to Victorino’s being stranded on third in the opening frame. I am a die-hard Phillies fan, but I took the time last night to watch Chase play the game just as an observer and as student of the game.
What is obvious about Chase Utley on his best and average nights is that he has tremendous power and possesses the ability to hit for a very high average. Utley is the ideal three-hole hitter on this team with the big-bopping Ryan Howard protecting him. He thrives in this setting because he sees more pitches to hit. Pitchers cannot afford to have him on base when Howard comes up, so Utley sees more fastballs that he can anticipate, or “sit on,” and drive than do most hitters. He hits to all fields and possesses one of the smoothest, most perfect strokes in all of baseball. Other aspects of Chase that are apparent to the casual fan are that he hustles constantly, never wants to take an inning off, and plays through pain. In one game last week, Utley got plunked by three pitches. Often, he can be caught leaning into 90+ mph fastballs, and is rarely one to jump out of the way of a pitch. He keeps his mouth shut and does his job extremely well every day. He plays with the same intensity now as he did several years ago while making the league minimum before he signed his $85 million contract before last season. This probably impresses me most about him as a baseball player. It distinguishes him from the businessmen who wear baseball uniforms.
The crowd of about 35,000 at Citizen’s Bank Park that night remembers Utley as having had a “bad game,” recalling his two strikeouts and 4 LOB’s, if they happened to take note of that statistic during the game. What slips past most people is Utley’s ability to keep innings alive offensively. He does little things that make the defense’s job as difficult as possible. Utley runs out every ground ball. He takes the extra base on balls that drop in front of lackadaisical outfielders.
That night, Utley was on first base with Ryan Howard at bat and no outs. Howard rolled over a pitch to the right side of the infield that looked to be a double play ball to kill the Phils’ threat. Howard does not run well, and most players on first would be inclined to make a soft slide at the bag at second and concede the twin killing. Utley broke from first into a full sprint to the outside of the bag at second, and went hard after SS Ryan Theriot turning the double play. Theriot’s throw was late and off-line, and Howard lived at first because of the hustle and hard base-running by Utley. Pat Burrell hit next and belted a two run homer that put the Phillies on top for good. Without Utley’s presence of mind and determination to break up the double play, Burrell’s blast ties the game instead of giving the Phils the lead, and the complexion of the game is completely changed. Myers would not be pitching ahead, and the Phillies might have had a harder time continuing to jump on Zambrano. Utley also beat out a potential double play ball in the game. He did not end up scoring, but that hustle and ability to turn an out into a baserunner will not go unrewarded.
While Utley led off of first base after beating out the double-play attempt, Zambrano moved to pick him off and had him dead to rights at first base. When Utley recognized the pickoff, he could have either tried in vain to dive back to the bag or to bolt for second. Chase Utley is a smart baseball player, and no coach, teammate, or fan of his can debate that fact. He is able to assess situations and make the decision that is more advantageous to his team before most players can even react to what is happening in front of them on the field. When Zambrano moved to first, Utley recognized that since Ryan Howard was at bat, the Cubs infield was slightly askew. As Zambrano threw to Lee at first Utley made a dash for second and saw the positioning of Theriot’s body in relation to the bag. He slid in the throwing lane from first, making the exchange between Lee and Theriot more difficult. Utley was safe at second instead of picked off first. That is the difference between Chase Utley having his head in the game, and an average player getting caught napping off first base by a right-handed pitcher.
In the past, I have also seen Utley let a ball hit softly in the air drop with a runner on first because the batter jogged out of the batter’s box down to first base. Utley allowed the ball to fall in front of him and flipped to Jimmy Rollins covering the bag at second, who threw to first base to turn a double-play on Carlos Beltran as he was loafed down to first. The umpires disallowed Utley’s thoughtful play, allowing the Met runner to stay at first and calling Beltran out, even though the Infield Fly Rule was not in effect. Utley’s baseball smarts and unrelenting style of play make him one of the best ball players in the game and certainly my favorite to watch, not because he plays for the Phillies, but because he plays the game the right way and plays it well.
For those of you not familiar with Myers’ temperament, giving up a homerun often translates to manifest frustration on the mound. A second homer in a row would normally be expected to precipitate the immediate implosion of any focus he might have maintained after the first blast. The fact that Myers maintained his composure, especially following back to back homeruns early in the game, should give manager Charlie Manuel a boost of confidence in his ace, who experienced some struggles in his first two starts. In those outings combined, he gave up seven earned runs and two homers over just ten innings. In that time, he struck out just six and walked five. Friday night against Chicago’s loaded lineup, which includes Alfonso Soriano, Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Mark DeRosa, and young stud receiver Geovany Soto, Myers scattered just five hits over eight innings, giving up three earned while striking out five and not walking a batter. In fact, the only walk surrendered in the ballgame came at the expense of Carlos Zambrano, as he issued the lone free pass of the contest to Shane Victorino.
I was pleased with Victorino’s performance filling the leadoff spot of the order in Rollins’ absence. Victorino led off the game with a single. Immediately, that put the Cubs in a situation where they had to be aware of Victorino’s speed. Lee held Victorino on the bag at first, while second baseman Mark DeRosa cheated towards second base at double play depth. This set of circumstances creates the optimal amount of empty space on the right side of the infield for the left handed Greg Dobbs, who was batting behind Victorino. Victorino took his lead off first in anticipation of a ball hit in the hole on the right side, and right fielder Daryle Ward was playing Dobbs extremely deep, just a few steps from the warning track. It was almost as if Lou Piniella had decided to concede third base to Victorino on a single to right field. Dobbs capped off the at-bat with a single to right, sending Victorino to third base with nobody out. The Phillies stranded Victorino there, but this little bit of offensive life prevented Zambrano from getting into too good of a rhythm for the Phillies to battle back against after falling behind 2-0 in the first inning.
Victonino finished the night 2-3 with a walk, and Dobbs, who also collected an RBI double to left-center field, exited the game early as Pedro Feliz was called upon to pinch hit against left hander Sean Marshall for Dobbs. The Feliz substitution also served to provide better defensive support later in the game
Now, the focal point of this particular column is Chase Utley. I highlighted some individual performances by Myers, Victorino, Dobbs, and Pat Burrell, but without Utley’s contributions, it would be a stretch to say that the Phillies would have won the game. Utley finished the night going 1-4, striking out twice, and leaving four runners on base. He even struck out into a double play in the first inning, leading to Victorino’s being stranded on third in the opening frame. I am a die-hard Phillies fan, but I took the time last night to watch Chase play the game just as an observer and as student of the game.
What is obvious about Chase Utley on his best and average nights is that he has tremendous power and possesses the ability to hit for a very high average. Utley is the ideal three-hole hitter on this team with the big-bopping Ryan Howard protecting him. He thrives in this setting because he sees more pitches to hit. Pitchers cannot afford to have him on base when Howard comes up, so Utley sees more fastballs that he can anticipate, or “sit on,” and drive than do most hitters. He hits to all fields and possesses one of the smoothest, most perfect strokes in all of baseball. Other aspects of Chase that are apparent to the casual fan are that he hustles constantly, never wants to take an inning off, and plays through pain. In one game last week, Utley got plunked by three pitches. Often, he can be caught leaning into 90+ mph fastballs, and is rarely one to jump out of the way of a pitch. He keeps his mouth shut and does his job extremely well every day. He plays with the same intensity now as he did several years ago while making the league minimum before he signed his $85 million contract before last season. This probably impresses me most about him as a baseball player. It distinguishes him from the businessmen who wear baseball uniforms.
The crowd of about 35,000 at Citizen’s Bank Park that night remembers Utley as having had a “bad game,” recalling his two strikeouts and 4 LOB’s, if they happened to take note of that statistic during the game. What slips past most people is Utley’s ability to keep innings alive offensively. He does little things that make the defense’s job as difficult as possible. Utley runs out every ground ball. He takes the extra base on balls that drop in front of lackadaisical outfielders.
That night, Utley was on first base with Ryan Howard at bat and no outs. Howard rolled over a pitch to the right side of the infield that looked to be a double play ball to kill the Phils’ threat. Howard does not run well, and most players on first would be inclined to make a soft slide at the bag at second and concede the twin killing. Utley broke from first into a full sprint to the outside of the bag at second, and went hard after SS Ryan Theriot turning the double play. Theriot’s throw was late and off-line, and Howard lived at first because of the hustle and hard base-running by Utley. Pat Burrell hit next and belted a two run homer that put the Phillies on top for good. Without Utley’s presence of mind and determination to break up the double play, Burrell’s blast ties the game instead of giving the Phils the lead, and the complexion of the game is completely changed. Myers would not be pitching ahead, and the Phillies might have had a harder time continuing to jump on Zambrano. Utley also beat out a potential double play ball in the game. He did not end up scoring, but that hustle and ability to turn an out into a baserunner will not go unrewarded.
While Utley led off of first base after beating out the double-play attempt, Zambrano moved to pick him off and had him dead to rights at first base. When Utley recognized the pickoff, he could have either tried in vain to dive back to the bag or to bolt for second. Chase Utley is a smart baseball player, and no coach, teammate, or fan of his can debate that fact. He is able to assess situations and make the decision that is more advantageous to his team before most players can even react to what is happening in front of them on the field. When Zambrano moved to first, Utley recognized that since Ryan Howard was at bat, the Cubs infield was slightly askew. As Zambrano threw to Lee at first Utley made a dash for second and saw the positioning of Theriot’s body in relation to the bag. He slid in the throwing lane from first, making the exchange between Lee and Theriot more difficult. Utley was safe at second instead of picked off first. That is the difference between Chase Utley having his head in the game, and an average player getting caught napping off first base by a right-handed pitcher.
In the past, I have also seen Utley let a ball hit softly in the air drop with a runner on first because the batter jogged out of the batter’s box down to first base. Utley allowed the ball to fall in front of him and flipped to Jimmy Rollins covering the bag at second, who threw to first base to turn a double-play on Carlos Beltran as he was loafed down to first. The umpires disallowed Utley’s thoughtful play, allowing the Met runner to stay at first and calling Beltran out, even though the Infield Fly Rule was not in effect. Utley’s baseball smarts and unrelenting style of play make him one of the best ball players in the game and certainly my favorite to watch, not because he plays for the Phillies, but because he plays the game the right way and plays it well.
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