Tribe’s Carmona Ace of the Future

2/15/08

News broke yesterday that talks between the Cleveland Indians and their 27-year-old ace C.C. Sabathia have stalled and might never be resurrected. An offer was reportedly made to and subsequently turned down by Sabathia for four years in addition to the coming 2008 season, for which he is still under contract. The contract was rumored to have been valued at $17-18 million annually, comparable to the extenstion received by Jake Peavy and Carlos Zambrano. The fact that Sabathia turned this contract down is reminiscent of Johan Santana’s rejection of a four year extension worth around $20 million per year. That is not to say that Sabathia will be dealt before the season as he enters his last year before free agency like Santana was to the Mets, but that is to say that in all likelihood, Sabathia will be sporting another uniform this time next spring.

Sabathia is entering his prime years and has established himself as one of the games most valuable starters. He is left-handed with a fastball in that touches the mid to upper 90’s with an excellent slider serving as an out pitch. Another aspect of his game the makes him so valuable is his ability to eat innings. Last year, Sabathia pitched 241 innings in an era where a pitcher who throws 200 is considered a workhorse Many overlook this aspect of the pitcher’s game, but when you think about it, those extra 41 innings saved the Cleveland bullpen about 30-35 separate appearances. This extra rest is something that is extremely important to a group of pitchers who were so outdtanding during the season. To a club making a hard playoff push, it is imperative that the bullpen be rested. He has had an ERA north of 3.60 only twice in the past five seasons and in the other two years, his ERA’s were 4.12 and 4.03 in 2004 and 2005 respectively. Sabathia also pounds the strike zone, notching a career K:BB of almost 3:1 and has almost 100 more career innings to his credit than hits surrendered. Impressive to say the least. Around the time of the winter meetings next December, Sabathia will be courted by upper management from many of the other 30 ball clubs. It will not so much be dollars on the year that will keep Sabathia out of Cleveland, but the number of years of job security. This is because he has the ability to lock up major dollars and years in a mega, Santana or Zito-esque contract that he otherwise not make the next time he enters free agency after say a three or four year contract.

As dominant as Sabathia is, the Indians would be wise to steer clear of long term (3+ years) contracts worth about 20 million dollars annually, especially with the emergence of a young star-studded pitching staff which will inevitably be led by Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, and future standouts Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers.

In addition to the young starting talent, the Cleveland bullpen pitched phenomenally last season, and they have only added a quality arm for this year in Masahide Kobayashi, whom most Major Leaguers have never faced. The Indian’s bullpen this years figures to also include closer Joe Borowski, Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Aaron Fultz, Jensen Lewis, Tom Mastny, Edward Mujica. Of those, Betancourt, Perez, Fultz, and Lewis all had ERA’s of 2.92 or better, with Betancourt and Perez holding each of theirs below 2.00.