One of the major questions for the Dodgers entering the 2008 season was who would fill the void at third base created by injuries to incumbent Nomar Garciaparra, top rookie 3B prospect Andy La Roche, and utility-man Tony Abreu late in spring training. That question has been answered, authoritatively, by 22 year old, lefty-swinging Blake DeWitt. Nomar has struggled mightily in with injuries over the past several seasons. His shift from shortstop to the first base in 2006 for LA seemed logical because the acquisition of Rafael Furcal blocked Nomar at his primary position. The emergence of young 1B phenom James Loney prompted the shift of Nomar to third base, where he entered spring training expecting to compete for playing time with La Roche, younger brother of Pirates 1B Andy La Roche. In the absence of Nomar and La Roche, the desperate Dodgers took a chance on young 3B prospect Blake DeWitt.
Since his callup, DeWitt is hitting .325 through 39 games. He has hit four home runs and driven in 23, while scoring 22 times. DeWitt has held his own defensively, too, with a .953 fielding percentage. He has also proven himself to be the Dodgers’ best clutch performer at the plate since his callup. Don’t believe me? DeWitt has batted six times this season with the bases loaded, and has six hits. On May 19 DeWitt capped off a Dodgers comeback with a walk-off single off of reliever David Weathers to beat Cincinnati 6-5 on May 19. DeWitt went 2-5 in that game and drove in two of the LA runs. Every win the Dodgers can come up with will be of utmost importance in that division with the emergence of the D’Backs as the NL West’s best, and the Rockies cannot possibly stay dormant for much longer.
Another option has emerged as a potential candidate to push DeWitt and La Roche for the 3B job in the long term, as Terry Tiffee has been tearing up at Triple-A Las Vegas, hitting at a .412 clip over 44 games (182 at-bats) and driving in 36 runs. This potential three headed monster at third base composed of DeWitt, La Roche, and Tiffee will inevitably make one, if not two, of the trio expendable should the right offer come along and should the organization definitively decide who will be the third baseman of the future, with Tony Abreu continuing in his utility role. A shift for any of the three to first base is simply not going to happen because James Loney will be covering the far right side of the LA infield for years to come. Also, a shift of any of the three to an outfield position is not likely because that area is already overcrowded with Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp, all of whom should have a starting role in the Major Leagues. The Dodgers should be reluctant to give up both Kemp and Ethier and are stuck with Pierre for three more years and Jones (who needs surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right knee) for at least one more year. A shift to shortstop pending the departure of current SS Rafael Furcal is also unlikely for any of the three young third basemen.
Another possible trading chip come the deadline, should he show he can stay healthy for more than nine consecutive days, will be Nomar Garciaparra as his 2 year deal expires at the end of this season.
The most highly touted of the DeWitt/ La Roche/ Tiffee trio over the past year or so seems to have been La Roche. However, DeWitt certainly is making a case for himself. He has been, arguably, the most pleasant surprise for the Dodgers and at third base around the league, especially considering his offensive performance and his young age (22). In my opinion, the most likely to depart is Tiffee given the fact that he is already 29.
I certainly hope that GM Ned Coletti is keeping a close eye on the situation and that he is no longer taking the advice of whoever told him to give 5 years/ $44 million to Juan Pierre. There had better be some money left over to secure talents like Kemp, Ethier, Loney, DeWitt or LaRoche, catcher Russell Martin, and possibly Furcal long term.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
5 New Oakland Aces, Thanks to Mr. Moneyball
Love him or hate him, nobody puts together a ball club like A's GM Billy Beane. I, for one, am a huge fan of his. A lightning rod for controversy, Beane approaches his management duties for the Oakland franchise with frugality and often comes across as looking dispassionately upon his players as mere trading chips. Beane’s free agent signings are usually inexpensive veterans with lower market value, such as Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas. Piazza was plagued by injuries last season, but thanks to Beane’s reluctance, or even outright refusal to commit to a long-term contract, Piazza was sent packing after just one year. In his first tour of duty with the A’s in 2006, Thomas hit 39 home runs and drove in 114 runs, propelling the Oakland offense into the ALCS, while batting at a .270 clip. The latest free agent surprise, besides resigning Thomas for the rest of the season, was the pickup of Mike Sweeney to DH at times and platoon at first base with rookie Daric Barton. To date, Sweeny is hitting .305 with a pair of homers and 10 RBI. Not spectacular numbers, but keep in mind that his job is now to mentor and not to play every day role.
One thing I have learned following the career of Billy Beane is that it is never wise to count his team out of the playoff race – remember the miraculous run from August 13 – September 4 in 2002 during which they reeled off 20 consecutive wins to take the division. Even when his team enters the year with a starting lineup composed of C – Kurt Suzuki, 1B Daric Barton, 2B – Mark Ellis, 3B – John Hannahan, SS – Bobby Crosby, LF – Emil Brown, CF – Ryan Sweeney/Chris Denorfia, RF – Travis Buck, and a starting rotation composed of Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, D.L mainstay Rich Harden, and rookie lefties Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, Beane and his homemade club can be expected to make things interesting in the AL West. Currently, the A’s are tied for first place in the division, and have the second most wins in baseball with the aforementioned lineup. The only difference is that Justin Duchscherer has taken the injured Rich Harden's spot in the rotation.
At the Winter Meetings, where Beane is typically a popular man to bargain with, he swung a deal in which he unloaded right-handed ace Dan Haren and minor league pitcher Connor Robertson to the Diamondbacks for LHPs Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter and OFs Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez. Eveland and Smith have already begun to quietly establish themselves as two of the premier young lefty hurlers in baseball. Through seven starts, Eveland has compiled an ERA of only 3.05, while scattering just 33 hits (including only 1 home run, in the American League, nonetheless) over 41.1 innings. Smith, like Eveland is also greatly responsible for the quick start the A’s have gotten off to. Smith, through his first six starts is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA. He has allowed just 27 hits in 39 innings, while compiling a K:BB of 31:13.
This past January, Beane sent Oakland fan favorite OF/1B Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox. In the deal, he stripped Sox GM Kenny Williams of LHP prospect and strikeout whiz Gio Gonzalez, in addition to pitching prospect Fautino de los Santos and startingCF Ryan Sweeney. Swisher, who hit 36 home runs last year, is currently batting at the Mendoza Line with only 8 RBI.
Shortly after the Swisher to Chicago deal, Beane dumped more salary obligations by dealing injury risk Mark Kotsay to the suddenly Center-fielderless Atlanta Braves for reliever Joey Devine, non-roster right handed pitcher Jamie Richmond, and, of course, cash considerations.
Perhaps Beane’s best off-season move was signing OF Emil Brown from Kansas City to what else, but a one-year deal, furthering my case that Billy Beane is the king of low risk-high reward free agent signings. Brown led the Royals in RBI in each of his three years there. He struggled mightily in his first five years in the majors (1997-2001) and did not play Major League Baseball from 2002-2004. However, his career as an offensive threat exploded as a result of Brown’s earning his first everyday duties over the course on an entire season in 2005, a year in which he hit .286 with 17 homers and 86 RBI. Driving in 86 runs in the Kansas City Royals’ 2005 lineup was no easy task. Oh, one more thing: Emil Brown now ranks second in the American League in RBI behind only Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers (both are on my fantasy team).
Also in the rotation are RHP’s Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, and converted reliever Justin Duchscherer. Blanton has the staff’s highest ERA at 3.82, hardly a disgrace. He is a true innings eater and has compiled at least 32 starts and 194 innings in each of his three seasons in the bigs. Last year he really showed his durability, pitching 230 innings for Bob Geren’s rotation that was wrought with uncertainty. Gaudin pitched 199.1 innings last season, making 34 starts in his first full season as a starting pitcher. Gaudin, historically has experienced some control issues during his time with the Devil Rays and Blue Jays, but appears to have sorted out these problems this year. Gaudin’s K:BB is 26:10, better than the 2:1 standard. Also, the fact that Gaudin has retired only 26 batters via strikeout over six starts and 36 innings, thus far, indicates that he is getting outs in other ways, such as via ground balls and soft fly balls.
Rich Harden began the year as the most talented pitcher on the staff, but the A’s were faced with the question of not if, but when Harden would land on the DL with his perpetual right shoulder woes. That question was answered after Harden made just two starts this season. In those starts, he allowed only one run over 11 innings and struck out 15 batters. His fastball was in the 93-94 mph range and his breaking ball was near untouchable. He can throw all of his pitches in any count for strikes. Since the conclusion of the 2005 season, Harden has made just 15 starts and three relief appearances. During that time, however, he was extremely effective, compiling an ERA of 3.24.
Duchscherer has been lights out in filling the void predictably left by Harden. Coming into the year, Duchscherer had not made a start in the big leagues in five years. In his four starts this season since Harden went down, the 30 year old righty boasts an ERA of just 2.45 with fewer hits than innings pitched and a K:BB of 18:5. Harden's return to the rotation, which will probably be sometime in the next two or three days after he is activated from the 15-day DL, will most likely push one of the current five starters to the bullpen. Blanton is a sure thing to stay in the rotation, as are Eveland and Smith, in my opinion. My guess is that either Duchscherer will return to the pen where he began the year, or Gaudin will be the odd man out, as he also has a good deal of relief experience. Gaudin pitched primarily as a reliever for the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, and A's through the 2006 season before being converted to a starter last year. If this is the case, don't expect Gaudin to be happy.
To many, the Oakland pitching staff of the 2002 campaign was one of the best in recent memory. This staff included Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. Also in the mix was the young Rich Harden. Beane allowed the former three to move on, passing on matching the 7 year/ $126 million deal Zito fielded from San Francisco. He also peddled Hudson and Mulder. Now, one can argue that the staff he has now is better than the one from six years ago. It will be interesting in the next few years to see how effective these youngsters will be and what value they will have in the trade market in the years to come as they all enter their prime years. Whatever the case, Beane will keep his eye on the situation as he continues to garner hot prospects and the games best sleepers.
On the Side:
The A’s system over the past decade and a half has produced the following MLB standouts:
OF’s: Jermaine Dye, Mark Kotsay, Bobby Kielty, Nick Swisher, Matt Stairs, Ryan Ludwick
IF’s: Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, Mark McGwire, Dan Johnson, Daric Barton, Jason Giambi, Scott Hatteberg
Pitchers: Huston Street, Keith Foulke, Billy Koch. Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Ted Lilly, and Aaron Harang
One thing I have learned following the career of Billy Beane is that it is never wise to count his team out of the playoff race – remember the miraculous run from August 13 – September 4 in 2002 during which they reeled off 20 consecutive wins to take the division. Even when his team enters the year with a starting lineup composed of C – Kurt Suzuki, 1B Daric Barton, 2B – Mark Ellis, 3B – John Hannahan, SS – Bobby Crosby, LF – Emil Brown, CF – Ryan Sweeney/Chris Denorfia, RF – Travis Buck, and a starting rotation composed of Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, D.L mainstay Rich Harden, and rookie lefties Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, Beane and his homemade club can be expected to make things interesting in the AL West. Currently, the A’s are tied for first place in the division, and have the second most wins in baseball with the aforementioned lineup. The only difference is that Justin Duchscherer has taken the injured Rich Harden's spot in the rotation.
At the Winter Meetings, where Beane is typically a popular man to bargain with, he swung a deal in which he unloaded right-handed ace Dan Haren and minor league pitcher Connor Robertson to the Diamondbacks for LHPs Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter and OFs Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez. Eveland and Smith have already begun to quietly establish themselves as two of the premier young lefty hurlers in baseball. Through seven starts, Eveland has compiled an ERA of only 3.05, while scattering just 33 hits (including only 1 home run, in the American League, nonetheless) over 41.1 innings. Smith, like Eveland is also greatly responsible for the quick start the A’s have gotten off to. Smith, through his first six starts is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA. He has allowed just 27 hits in 39 innings, while compiling a K:BB of 31:13.
This past January, Beane sent Oakland fan favorite OF/1B Nick Swisher to the Chicago White Sox. In the deal, he stripped Sox GM Kenny Williams of LHP prospect and strikeout whiz Gio Gonzalez, in addition to pitching prospect Fautino de los Santos and startingCF Ryan Sweeney. Swisher, who hit 36 home runs last year, is currently batting at the Mendoza Line with only 8 RBI.
Shortly after the Swisher to Chicago deal, Beane dumped more salary obligations by dealing injury risk Mark Kotsay to the suddenly Center-fielderless Atlanta Braves for reliever Joey Devine, non-roster right handed pitcher Jamie Richmond, and, of course, cash considerations.
Perhaps Beane’s best off-season move was signing OF Emil Brown from Kansas City to what else, but a one-year deal, furthering my case that Billy Beane is the king of low risk-high reward free agent signings. Brown led the Royals in RBI in each of his three years there. He struggled mightily in his first five years in the majors (1997-2001) and did not play Major League Baseball from 2002-2004. However, his career as an offensive threat exploded as a result of Brown’s earning his first everyday duties over the course on an entire season in 2005, a year in which he hit .286 with 17 homers and 86 RBI. Driving in 86 runs in the Kansas City Royals’ 2005 lineup was no easy task. Oh, one more thing: Emil Brown now ranks second in the American League in RBI behind only Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers (both are on my fantasy team).
Also in the rotation are RHP’s Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, and converted reliever Justin Duchscherer. Blanton has the staff’s highest ERA at 3.82, hardly a disgrace. He is a true innings eater and has compiled at least 32 starts and 194 innings in each of his three seasons in the bigs. Last year he really showed his durability, pitching 230 innings for Bob Geren’s rotation that was wrought with uncertainty. Gaudin pitched 199.1 innings last season, making 34 starts in his first full season as a starting pitcher. Gaudin, historically has experienced some control issues during his time with the Devil Rays and Blue Jays, but appears to have sorted out these problems this year. Gaudin’s K:BB is 26:10, better than the 2:1 standard. Also, the fact that Gaudin has retired only 26 batters via strikeout over six starts and 36 innings, thus far, indicates that he is getting outs in other ways, such as via ground balls and soft fly balls.
Rich Harden began the year as the most talented pitcher on the staff, but the A’s were faced with the question of not if, but when Harden would land on the DL with his perpetual right shoulder woes. That question was answered after Harden made just two starts this season. In those starts, he allowed only one run over 11 innings and struck out 15 batters. His fastball was in the 93-94 mph range and his breaking ball was near untouchable. He can throw all of his pitches in any count for strikes. Since the conclusion of the 2005 season, Harden has made just 15 starts and three relief appearances. During that time, however, he was extremely effective, compiling an ERA of 3.24.
Duchscherer has been lights out in filling the void predictably left by Harden. Coming into the year, Duchscherer had not made a start in the big leagues in five years. In his four starts this season since Harden went down, the 30 year old righty boasts an ERA of just 2.45 with fewer hits than innings pitched and a K:BB of 18:5. Harden's return to the rotation, which will probably be sometime in the next two or three days after he is activated from the 15-day DL, will most likely push one of the current five starters to the bullpen. Blanton is a sure thing to stay in the rotation, as are Eveland and Smith, in my opinion. My guess is that either Duchscherer will return to the pen where he began the year, or Gaudin will be the odd man out, as he also has a good deal of relief experience. Gaudin pitched primarily as a reliever for the Devil Rays, Blue Jays, and A's through the 2006 season before being converted to a starter last year. If this is the case, don't expect Gaudin to be happy.
To many, the Oakland pitching staff of the 2002 campaign was one of the best in recent memory. This staff included Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. Also in the mix was the young Rich Harden. Beane allowed the former three to move on, passing on matching the 7 year/ $126 million deal Zito fielded from San Francisco. He also peddled Hudson and Mulder. Now, one can argue that the staff he has now is better than the one from six years ago. It will be interesting in the next few years to see how effective these youngsters will be and what value they will have in the trade market in the years to come as they all enter their prime years. Whatever the case, Beane will keep his eye on the situation as he continues to garner hot prospects and the games best sleepers.
On the Side:
The A’s system over the past decade and a half has produced the following MLB standouts:
OF’s: Jermaine Dye, Mark Kotsay, Bobby Kielty, Nick Swisher, Matt Stairs, Ryan Ludwick
IF’s: Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada, Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, Mark McGwire, Dan Johnson, Daric Barton, Jason Giambi, Scott Hatteberg
Pitchers: Huston Street, Keith Foulke, Billy Koch. Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Rich Harden, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Ted Lilly, and Aaron Harang
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