Monday, July 28, 2008

Arms Arrivals Could Propel Teams into the Post-Season

With the non-waiver trade deadline looming, two of the biggest pitching chips have already been moved. On July 7th, the Indians found the deal they wanted with the Brewers for Ace left-hander C.C. Sabathia. Entering July 28, Sabathia has pitched three consecutive complete games, one of which was a shutout. In his first four starts as a Brewer, he has surrendered just 5 earned runs in 33 innings pitched, for a 1.36 ERA, while striking out 31 and walking just eight since arriving in the National League. Combined with fellow ace Ben Sheets, the Brewers have become strong candidates to ultimately subdue the third place Cardinals and possibly catch and/or pass the Cubs to take the NL Central division title. Behind the solidified staff, All-Star OF’s Ryan Braun and Corey Hart will continue to power an imposing offense that also features young stud 1B Prince Fielder and SS J.J Hardy. The recent addition of veteran 2B Ray Durham solidifies the middle defensively, and also serves as an offensive upgrade given the struggles of incumbent 2B Rickie Weekes.

Following the acquisition of Sabathia by the Brewers, the first-place Cubs quickly completed a trade with the ever-rebuilding Oakland A’s, who soon after parted ways with Opening Day starter Joe Blanton, for RHP Rich Harden. Harden is a difference maker when healthy and has 10 K stuff, that is the potential to strike out ten in any given start. He has an electric fastball in the mid-90’s, complemented by a nasty hard slider. Over the course of his first three starts with the Cubs, Harden has allowed only two runs (both earned). He also has scattered only a total of seven hits in 17.1 IP. Combined with established ace and workhorse Carlos Zambrano, and surprise closer-turned-starter Ryan Dempster (11-4, 2.99 ERA, 117 K’s), Harden could be exactly the pitching addition the Cubs needed to counter the Sabathia trade and hold onto first place in the NL Central.

The Marlins’ Josh Johnson has returned from Tommy John surgery and appears to still have his dynamite stuff, featuring an explosive fastball that still touches 97 mph (after not pitching in a game for over one full year). His return could stabilize a Marlins rotation marred by injuries and inconsistency. Also, the arrival of pitching prospect Chris Volstad will aid in adding strength to the Florida rotation. Volstad has flown, to this point, somewhat under the radar as he has already turned in three solid starts. In his debut as a starter, Volstad lasted 8.2 innings and gave up just on earned run while beating the Dodgers. In his last two starts, he has pitched a total of 12 innings (6 in each start) and surrendered just five earned runs. The additions of the dominant Johnson and promising Volstad combined with Ricky Nolasco’s solid season could be enough to allow the slugging Fish to sneak past the Phillies and Mets to take the NL East, as the NL Wild-Card will most likely go to the Central’s runner up (either the Cubs or Brewers). To back up Florida’s pitching, the offense boasts sluggers Mike Jacobs (22 HR/60 RBI’s), Dan Uggla (25 HR/62 RBI’s), Jorge Cantu (18 HR/60 RBI), Hanley Ramirez (24 HR/47 RBI/ 84 runs scored), Jeremy Hermida (15 HR/47 RBI’s), Cody Ross (15 HR/49 RBI’s) and LF Josh Willingham who is returning from a DL stint.

The Tigers, currently making a push for the AL Central crown, will have to battle past the Twins and White Sox. If they do so, Detroit will be riding rookie rotation saver, Armando Galarraga, who boasts an ERA of 3.27 in 18 games (17 starts). Also, righty fireballer Justin Verlander finally appears to have turned things around as he recently turned in a string of eight consecutive starts in which he surrendered just two earned runs or fewer. This streak lasted from June 11 to July 26. With Verlander regaining his form of old despite a rocky outing against the White Sox on July 25th and the onslaught of runs the lineup is capable of scoring on a nightly basis, the Tigers should make a hard second half push for the AL Central. The returns of relievers Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya could figure into the team’s immediate future as well.

The Twins figure to see the return of Francisco Liriano to the rotation at some point in the near future as he has torn apart Triple-A offenses. In the rotation, he could potentially replace the struggling Livan Hernandez (5.31 ERA), the only Twins starter with an ERA above 4.41. In 19 starts with Triple-A Rochester since his demotion, Liriano is 10-2 with a 3.28 ERA to go with a .231 opponents batting average and a K:BB of 113:31. From June 30th to July 27th, Liriano did not give up an earned run in four of five starts. He is ready to make an impact.

Finally, perhaps the biggest potential difference maker is David Price, the first round pick of Tampa Bay in the 2007 Draft. During each of his final two years at Vanderbilt, the left hander broke the school’s single season strikeout record. He is currently pitching at the Double-A level and has been near untouchable throughout his college and minor league careers. Listed on the Rays’ 40-man roster, he could fill a rotation or a bullpen spot by the end of the season. In doing so, he would certainly join Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza. He could potentially replace Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson, who could make a transition to the bullpen with his live arm or become valuable trade bait. Price was clocked this past spring at 99 mph. Since joining Double-A, the 6’6” 22 year old has compiled a 2.19 ERA in six starts, allowing just 33 hits in 37 innings pitched. Of all prospects prepared to break into the league I am and have been most excited about Price’s arrival. Given his natural dominant abilities and the fact that the major leaguers have not yet faced him, Price stands to make an immediate difference. His potential addition to the first place Tampa staff might be enough to help the Rays to the franchise’s first pennant. The Yankees’ loss of Jorge Posada for the season furthers the Rays’ chances as well. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that this young group can hold off the Red Sox and take the division.


On the Side:

The Braves placed 3B Chipper Jones and Ace RHP Tim Hudson on the DL today, officially marking the beginning of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, as the Braves will attempt to trade for a major leaguer and possibly some prospects, instead of losing him through free agency at season’s end for two draft picks. Teixeira will certainly be classified as a Type-A free agent, allowing the Braves to receive the first round pick of the team that signs him (or the second round pick if the team he goes to finishes the 2008 campaign with on of the 15 worst records in the majors) in addition to a supplemental round pick, if Atlanta does not find the right deal for the switch hitting, Gold-Glove, slugger. The Yankees and Diamondbacks appear to be the front runners, however the Braves will demand a first-baseman in return. Also, any team interested in acquiring Teixeira’s services would be wise to consider the fact that he is most likely a rental player unless the team can sign him to a big extension. This could bring the big-market Angels into the bidding, as they continue their search for another big bat in the lineup. The Braves could demand a package of young first baseman Casey Kotchman, young, hard-throwing reliever Jose Arredondo, and another prospect (Triple-A RHP Nick Adenhart, maybe?). If it happens, you heard it here first.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Young Better Than Today's Youth

Michael Young of the Texas Rangers is and has been Major League Baseball’s most underrated shortstop for years, outperforming the league’s best for over half of a decade. After debuting with Texas in 2000, Young became a staple up the middle for the Rangers. He took over second base duties in 2001, as he was blocked at shortstop by Alex Rodriguez and his 10 year $252 million contract. After three years, A-Rod was shipped to the Bronx for then second baseman Alfonso Soriano. This move opened up shortstop for Young and allowed Soriano to take over second base for the Rangers (where he committed 23 errors in ’04 and 21 in ’05).

Since then, Young has been arguably the most productive shortstop offensively and certainly one of the game’s most solid defenders at the position, as he carries a career fielding percentage of .980. No easy task for someone who has spent his entire career in the infield and has played in at least 156 games in each of the past six full seasons. He could potentially extend that number to seven at the conclusion of this year.

Additionally, the 31 year-old Covina, California native has collected at least 200 hits in each of the past five seasons. To put this achievement into perspective, Derek Jeter cannot make this claim. Reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, third year phenom Hanley Ramirez, and former perennial All-Star SS Nomar Garciaparra have each all reached the 200 hit plateau only once in their careers. Edgar Renteria, Rafael Furcal, Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy, and Omar Vizquel have never even reached 200 hits in a season. Young has also hit over .300 in each of those seasons and owns a career batting average of .302. This year, he is currently on pace to finish with 203 hits if he plays in each of the final 66 games. Also, of the aforementioned band of talented shortstops, only Vizquel (.984) and Rollins (.982) have higher career fielding percentages. Young is also currently battling a hairline fracture on his left ring finger, but has nixed any possibility of a DL stint.

Michael Young has delivered the game winning RBI in two of the last three All-Star Games, including the 15th inning sacrifice fly off of Brad Lidge two nights ago. The other came in 2006 on an eventual game winning triple. Also, since the start of the 2003 season (5 ½ seasons) he has maintained a .357 batting average with runners in scoring position. Needless to say, he is an extremely clutch performer.

Young is also the real catalyst in the Rangers’ lineup. Much has been made of Texas’ leadoff man Ian Kinsler’s breakout season and of Josh Hamilton’s thumping of the league’s pitching. His knack for making contact behind the speedy Kinsler allows the Rangers to play hit and run with less risk. Since Young is so dangerous with the bat, pitchers are forced to go after him with their better breaking stuff, allowing Kinsler (23 steals in 24 attempts) to run more freely. Hamilton entered the All-Star Break with 95 RBI’s, second most all-time. Young’s high batting average, baserunning abilities (6 SB in 6 attempts), and on-base percentage of .350 allow Hamilton more RBI opportunities.

Young’s tenure with the organization has seen three different General Managers and four managers. He is also currently the longest tenured player on the Rangers’ roster, barely edging reliever Joaquin Benoit, who debuted in 2001. The general theme is that Michael Young is the epitome of consistency in baseball, and has close to a decade of good baseball ahead of him.

As modest as they come, Young always offers praise for his teammates when asked about his own accomplishments and abilities. Never has he made public a complaint about playing in the shadow of other shortstop standouts like Jeter, Rollins, and Reyes. In this age of Prima Donna and thug icons in sports, Michael has always carried himself in an exemplary manner and behaved in model fashion on and off the field. The Rangers truly have an all-around gem in Michael Young. He contributes on all levels within the game and will always receive my highest commendation.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Floundering Bravos Bound to Wash Up

The outlook for the Atlanta Braves’ postseason hopes is not so good. In fact, the only thing keeping them on life support is the fact that the Phillies, Marlins (1.0 GB), and Mets (1.5GB) have not shown the ability to pull away from the fourth place Braves, who, at five games under .500, stand just 5 GB in the NL East. Despite the onslaught of serious injuries and individual performance slumps the Braves have faced, they remain in striking distance of the NL East division lead. They have also executed poorly, to say the least, on the road, going just 13-30. For the year, Atlanta has also been outscored by opponents 404-373 going into 7/9/08.

The following is a breakdown by position of the effects of Atlanta’s injuries and other problems on their lineup:


P: As far as starting pitching goes, the Braves lost right-handed ace for the year to right shoulder surgery. Tom Glavine is currently in his second DL stint of his career and of the season with left elbow problems and is not expected back any time soon…maybe even never. Mike Hampton has been anchoring the Braves’ DL staff since he started just 12 games way back in 2005. Starter Chuck James has also visited the DL this season, and is not currently on the Braves roster and has not appeared in a game since giving up 3 HR and 5 earned against the Phillies on May 15.

The bullpen has also been plagued by injuries. Rafael Soriano was slated to be the closer this year, but is currently sitting for the second time this season with right elbow soreness, an injury that poses a significant problem for a right handed pitcher. Closer Mike Gonzalez missed most of the 2007 season and appeared in his first game this year on June 18 after recovering from Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery. Peter Moylan, expected to be the Braves’ 7th or 8th inning man, is currently on the 60-day DL and has been out of action since 4/15. Troubled reliever, Manny Acosta struggled in the closer role in the absence of Soriano, Gonzalez, and Moylan and currently sits on the 15-day DL alongside fellow injured righty reliever Jeff Bennett. Buddy Carlyle, currently pitching in relief, has also seen DL time this year.

C: On the catching front, no complaints. Lefty-swinging Brian McCann is a deserving All-Star who is thumping southpaws with a .317 average against them. He is currently hitting .293 with 17 homers and 50 RBI’s, all while providing extraordinary protection for Jones and Teixeira in the middle of the order. Defensively, he has shown his durability to this point starting 79 of 91 games this year and appearing behind the plate in 84 of them. He also currently holds a stellar .995 fielding percentage.

1B: Mark Teixiera has been a mainstay at first base for the Bravos, though his offensive numbers are below where they traditionally would be at other times during his career. The biggest drawback on Teixeira this season has not been one of performance, nor injury proneness, but his impending departure via free agency at the end of the season. Last year before being traded to Atlanta, he (and agent Scott Boras) turned down an 8 year/ $140 million extension. It is doubtful that GM Frank Wren will enter the bidding, that will likely start at about that mark.

2B: Kelly Johnson has started in only 76 of Atlanta’s 91 games, but has managed to avoid the DL. Johnson finds himself sitting at times against tough left-handed pitching in favor of the right-handed Martin Prado, and the fleet of foot, switch hitting Ruben Gotay.

3B: Chipper Jones is leading the NL in batting average, and it is hard to find fault in that. However, Jones has been hampered this season by a slight groin injury which he could tweak into a DL stint on any given swing. He has also been bothered at times with a sore quad. Similarly to Johnson, he has started just 72 games.

SS: Twenty-five year old stud shortstop Yunel Escobar has not endured a DL stint, but has battled a painful shoulder injury that is evident in many of his swings as he can be seen wincing in pain during a follow through, especially when swinging and missing. As a right handed hitter, Escobar follows through with the bat in his left hand, causing his injured shoulder some degree of pain. He has also missed time this season due to a strained right hit flexor. Escobar sustained his left shoulder injury in the process of getting picked off of first base in a game in late June against the Brewers.

Utility-man Omar Infante played in Escobar’s stead the following night and promptly left the game with a right hamstring injury after running out a ground ball. This injury comes after Infante began the year on the DL and did not appear in a game until May 8.

Infielder Martin Prado, who has seen time in 2008 at all four infield positions, was on the congested Braves DL from 5/5 to 7/3 with a sprained left thumb.

This string of injuries precipitated the callup and six starts at SS by rookie SS Brent Lillibridge.

LF: Opening Day LF Matt Diaz has not appeared in a game since May 27 due to a left knee ligament strain. Though a career .310 hitter that posssesses the ability to drastically change the complexion of the Braves’ lineup for the better, Diaz hit just .163 during that month.

CF: Mark Kotsay, acquired from the A’s this past offseason to replace departed CF Andruw Jones, missed from May 25 to July 1 with an injury. No surprise for a guy who has appeared in 140 games or more only once since 2002. He has appeared in just 54 games to this point, 49 of which he started. In his limited time, Kotsay’s production has been modest, hitting at a .278 clip with four homers and 22 RBI’s.

RF: It has been a bumpy ride to this point for Jeff Francoeur. Although he has not been bitten by the injury bug (yet), the struggling free-swinger recently endured a demotion Double-A Mississippi that cannot have been any more embarrassing for him than his performance thus far in the Braves’ lineup.


Luckily for Atlanta, Tim Hudson has done an outstanding job securing his status as the new, undisputed ace of the staff, posting a 9-6 record with a 3.19 ERA. Following him is rookie Jair Jurrjens, who has been extremely effective and a savior for the depleted staff. Thus far, Jurrjens has posted an ERA of 3.00, while going 9-4 and winning Rookie of the Month honors for the month of June. Jorge Campillo has filled in admirably, making 10 starts since his shift from the bullpen. Prior to this season, Campillo had one career start. Twenty-three year old lefty Jo-Jo Reyes has been inconsistent, getting tuned up by opposing offenses in about a third of his starts, but his future is bright. Charlie Morton currently occupies the fifth rotation spot, and has been far less than impressive though his first five starts, getting touched up to 19 ER through just 25 innings. Beyond Hudson, the Braves have a glaring inexperience dilemma in the rotation.

In addition to the aforementioned Gonzalez and Carlyle, lefty specialist Royce Ring, Blaine Boyer, Will Ohman, and totally ineffective, aging vet, Julian Tavarez round out the bullpen. The Braves signed Tavarez in an act of sheer desperation to acquire experienced pitching to a worn-out staff. Both the Red Sox and Brewers have taken a chance on the 35 year-old this season and realized their mistake. Look for the Braves to do the same before too long, if the trend of Tavarez’s regression continues. He comes to the Braves with an ERA of 7.20 for the year (with Milwaukee and Boston), allowing 31 hits in 20 innings, all in relief.