Successless in Seattle

The Seattle Mariners are the worst team in Major League Baseball, and it is no secret. It’s more like a joke. The only continuity exhibited by the AL West basement dwellers thus far has been that the lineup and pitching staff have been consistently bad. Only once over the past decade have the Mariners won the American League West Division. Although similar droughts are somewhat common around the League, recall that such a streak lacking accomplishment is less understandable in the only division consisting of just four teams.

Current Cubs manager Lou Piniella led the team to their last division championship. Since his departure following the 2002 season, four different men have managed in Seattle. Jim Riggleman serves as this year’s mid-season appointee and finds himself stuck with the underperforming mess that is the Mariners’ roster. He succeeds John McLaren, whose outstanding inadequacy lead to his firing about a year after his appointment as successor to Mike Hargrove during the 2007 season. Riggleman is the third consecutive manager in Seattle to not begin and end a season in the same position. Mel Stottlemyre is in only his first season as pitching coach with the M’s, replacing Rafael Chaves. Chaves was fired following the 2007 season along with the entire 2007 coaching staff, except McLaren, who did not last much longer.

A recent history of unfavorable acquisitions has hurt the Mariners. The off-season signing of former Twins right-handed starter Carlos Silva has proven counter-productive. The Mariners won the Silva sweepstakes, agreeing to pay him $48 million through the 2011 season. Silva has been ineffective when not on the DL, going 4-14 with a 6.53 ERA, thus far.

Also following the 2007 season, the Mariners’ front office dealt for former Baltimore lefty starter Eric Bedard, who is currently enduring his second DL stint of the year. His current stint, caused by left shoulder stiffness, is retroactive to July 5th. To get Bedard and the 15 starts he made for $7 million, the Mariners gave up top OF prospect Adam Jones and a quartet of pitchers, including Orioles currently injured closer George Sherrill. The loss of Jones will prove in the near future to be a blow to and an outfield that stands to lose Raul Ibanez to free agency following this season.

Jeremy Reed has played respectably in Center Field, but through 75 games has shown that he lacks power (2 HR), run production (24 RBI/ 20 runs scored), and contribution on the basepaths (1 SB in 3 attempts). Also, 26 year-old RF Mike Morse is currently on the shelf and hasn’t been used in any sort of a regular role since the 2005 campaign, in which he played 72 games for Seattle.

Smooth swinging, current fourth outfielder Wladimir Balentien is just 24 and has the potential to be an everyday outfielder, but will need to improve on his .200 batting average. Beyond him, only Michael Wilson, 25, (.276/27 HR/84 RBIs/ 9 SB) in and Gregory Halman, 21, (.277/ 10/ 30/ 8 SB) appear to have hope for bright futures in the Mariners’ outfield. Although both have high ceilings, it is a stretch to say that either will have a major impact in Seattle in 2009, as both are currently playing for Double-A West Tenn. Earlier this season at Single-A High Desert Halman stole 23 bases in 24 attempts.

Jose Vidro was released on August 13, three days after utilityman Willie Bloomquist went down with a hamstring injury. It is bad news when a career second-baseman with a capacity to play first base and DH in the absence of a utility-man is no longer valuable to a last place team. So ends the injury plagued saga of Jose Vidro.

The acquisition of Richie Sexson prior to the 2005 season is no exception in the trend of bad signings by the Mariners. Sexson has a terribly high career strikeout rate, punching out in more than one quarter of his career at-bats (1313 K’s in 4928 AB). He also sported only a .244 clip in his three and a half seasons as a Mariner, before the team released him due to a tragic lack of production. The Yankees signed him for about three weeks and disposed of his services in the same way after Sexson contributed just 7 hits in 28 at-bats.

Behind the plate, the Mariners locked up 32 year old Kenji Johjima for three years (beginning the 2008 season) and $24 million. Since that time, Johjima has exhibited some difficulty in handling the pitching staff when calling games. He has a tendency to have his pitchers “pitch backwards” to opposing hitters, that is, attack the hitter with breaking pitches at the beginning of the at-bat. Johjima’s lack of production (.209/ 5 HR/ 26 RBIs) warrants the current platoon his is in with lefty swinging 25 year-old backup Jeff Clement (.227/5/23) and 36 year old Jamie Burke.

At the hot corner, the Mariners inked Adrian Beltre to a 5 year/ $64 million deal one day after the Sexson signing in December of 2004. One must wonder about the collective intelligence of the Seattle front office committing so much to a player who has an season vastly uncharacteristic of his abilities. In 2004 for the Dodgers, Beltre hit .334 with 48 home runs, 121 RBIs, all career highs. In the two previous seasons, 2002 and 2003, Beltre batted .257 and .240, respectively. For his career entering his contract with the Mariners, Beltre was mediocre. Seattle signed a .334 hitter with great power. But due to what I have come to know as “regression to the mean,” got a man who was a career mediocre .274 hitter at the time with 25 home run pop in his bat. I define regression to the mean as a foreseeable and inexorable return of a veteran player to his average career performance statistics within a single standard deviation of the mean for the season(s) following a career year. Following his torrid 2004 campaign, Beltre has not hit above .276. He also has not eclipsed even 26 homers, 100 RBIs, or 200 hits during any other season at any time during his career. If I could ever offer any advice to any GM, I would say to beware the career years of a player, because they almost invariably overshadow underachieving career stats and coincide with a contract year.

The signing of Jarrod Washburn is a prime example of the Mariners overpaying for a historical underachiever coming off of a career year. The Mariners over invested in the mediocre left-hander, inking him to a contract worth four years and $37 million. He is nearing the end of his third season with the team, and during his time in Seattle, the 34-year old has not finished with a winning record, nor has he succeeded in keeping his ERA any lower that 4.32 for the year. In 2005, before signing with Seattle, Washburn made 29 starts for the Angels and boasted a 3.20 ERA. This is the season in which he earned his big payday in Seattle, not in the previous two seasons in which Washburn finished with ERA’s of 4.43 and 4.64, respectively. In his 11th Major League season, Washburn has allowed more hits than innings pitched in his career, has only recorded five seasons of 100 or more strikeouts, and has a career record of 98-100. Washburn has a career ERA of 4.13, nearly a full run per nine innings higher than he had in his contract season of 2005. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN. Hoping a player will repeat his performance of the previous year is a mistake. Looking at the performance trends of his career before signing him, is a necessity. Also, following a player’s signing of a long-term, guaranteed contract, the incentive to perform drops considerably.

So get used to the AL West Basement, Mariner fans. Finding fault in the Angels' lineup is no easy task, the A's continue to reload each year with young talent, and the Rangers' high-powered offense will continue to improve, especially with the emergence of 1B slugger Chris Davis, and Rookie OF David Murphy. I predict at least one more last place finish in 2009 before the M's make any kind of a push for third place.