Off-Season Speculation: Part 1 - Pitching

The Free Agent Market

With Game 1 of the World Series upon us, it is not too early to begin off-season free agent and potential trade speculation. For the second consecutive season, the Mets’ bullpen successfully barred the franchise from reaching the playoffs after the team led in the division in the dying weeks of the season. With closer Billy Wagner on the shelf for at least the majority of the 2009 season and the bullpen on the verge of an overhaul, look for the big-spending Mets to make the hardest push for free-agent closer Fancisco Rodriguez. With options such as established eighth inning man Scott Shields and developing, hard-throwing right hander Jose Arredondo coming onto the scene in the late innings, it would be wise for the Angels to pass on Rodriguez, who will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent, allowing the Angels to acquire either a first or second round pick in the 2009 First Year Player Draft from the team that signs Rodriguez. Also, the surrender of K-Rod leaves the franchise with more free money to retain the services of newly acquired 1B, and free agent-to-be Mark Teixeira.

Rodriguez, who set a Major League record this past season with 62 saves, will certainly command a watershed contract from the teams that court him during the winter meetings. Last year, current Reds closer Francisco Cordero signed a 4 year/ $46 million deal. At the time of the signing, Cordero was 32. Rodriguez is only 26. When he inks his deal this winter, the number of years should surpass the four received by Cordero. Rodriguez has also pitched in a key closer role for a World Series Champion team and has three seasons of 50 or more saves to his credit. Cordero has not pitched in the post-season and has never reached the 50 save plateau. Furthermore, Rodriguez owns a career 2.35 ERA, to Cordero’s 3.29 mark, and K-Rod has a converted saves for his career at an 86.3% (208/241) success rate, while Cordero’s success rate is significantly lower at 80.2% (211/263). The extensions reached between the Phillies and closer Brad Lidge and between Minnesota and their closer Joe Nathan do two things to the value of K-Rod’s approaching contract. It increases the competition and demand for an established closer, because they represent two top flight closers that will not be on the open market. The 3 year/$37.5 million deal received by Lidge averages $12.5 million per year, more than the $11.5 per given to Cordero and the $11.75 million given to Nathan. Only Mariano Rivera, preparing to enter the second season of a three year deal, averages $15 million annually. This could be the average value K-Rod and his agent, Paul Kinzer, will seek. Let the bidding begin at 4 years and $46 million with the ceiling of $15 million annually for a starting value of 5 years/$75 million. I expect a contract somewhere in the middle between 4 years/$52 million and 5 years/$65 million. Despite his dominance, however, K-Rod will remain beatable. Keep in mind the fact that he blew 7 saves this season, and he throws a very high number of curve balls. To this point, he has avoided severe shoulder and elbow issues, but they might not be far off as he enters his upper twenties. Omar Minaya, beware.

High risk GMs in with big market teams looking to solidify their starting rotations will keep and eye on Blue Jays’ starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, who could exercise the famous opt-out clause that kicks in after this season, the third in his 5 year/$55 million deal. Any baseball writer who can name big market teams will tell you that the list of potential suitors could include the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Angels are absent from this list simply because their rotation is set with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, John Garland, Joe Saunders, and Jared Weaver.

Given the success enjoyed by C.C. Sabathia in the National League this season, I would not be surprised in the least to see him stay. In the East, the Phillies do not seem realistic contenders in the looming sweepstakes, nor do the Mets who already have Johan Santana’s mega-contract to deal with. The Braves do not seem likely, as GM Frank Wren appears to want to build around youth, both home grown and prospects acquired via trade. The Marlins have the lowest payroll in baseball, they are out. The Nationals would do better to focus on executing the fundamentals of baseball, rather than signing a big free agent.

In the Central, the Cubs will have a full rotation, especially if Ryan Dempster is re-signed and remains in the rotation. If so, the Cubs, who picked up Rich Harden’s $7 million option for 2009, will enter next year with Carlos Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, Ted Lilly, and Jason Marquis under contract. Even lefty Sean Marshall, Chad Gaudin, and rookie Jeff Samardzija could potentially be starting options. The Astros appear to be focused primarily on upgrading their pitching staff through a trade for Jake Peavy, although nothing is for sure yet. The Brewers should make a push to retain Ben Sheets or reel in Burnett if he bails on his current deal. If neither happens, they must piece together a trade Number 1 or 2 starter to head the rotation with Yovanni Gallardo, but this is not likely due to the damage inflicted by the Indians on the Brewers’ farm system in the Sabathia trade that allowed the Tribe to snatch Matt LaPorta. The Cardinals are probably out with their signing of Kyle Lohse for 4 years and $41 million. Their rotation next year will include Lohse, Adam Wainwright, Todd Wellemeyer, 22 year old lefty prospect Jaime Garcia, and either Joel Piniero or a maybe even a healthy Chris Carpenter. The Pirates and Reds have no chance of landing any of the Big 3 available starters (Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett). The addition of Sabathia to either of those teams would do little more than ensure that the club will not finish in last place.

Out West, Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and future star Max Scherzer will lead the D-Backs’ rotation. The Giants are bogged down with Barry “the Bust” Zito’s contract and expensive deals for young righties Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain on the horizon, unless Cain is dealt for a top position player. The Rockies, despite their rotation woes, are not in the financial position to bring in an expensive free agent starter, as GM Dan O’Dowd’s preference is to choose from in-house candidates. The Padres could be looking to unload Jake Peavy in a rebuilding effort and will not attempt to sign a big name starter in the process of dumping one. That leaves the Dodgers in the NL. They are coming off a slightly above average regular season in a weak division and a run to the NLCS. They will look to add to the pitching staff that includes an aging Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda, and young lefty Clayton Kershaw. Jason Schmidt has been done for a few years due to incessant shoulder and arm issues, and Greg Maddux, if he is re-signed, simply will not contribute the way Sabathia will. To identify the front runner in the Sabathia bidding, I say he is a Dodger next year, given that he stays in the National League. This will leave the Yankees and Red Sox the primary suitors trying to woo Sheets and Burnett. Sheets missed the end of the year with elbow discomfort, in much the same manner as Tim Hudson went down. Could Tommy John claim Sheets too? Burnett was healthy this year, made 34 starts, and led the AL in strikeouts – a prime formula for seeking a pay raise. In his career, he has either enjoyed tremendous success or endured a variety of injuries. He has been limited to 25 starts or fewer in a season five times since 2000.

Trades

On the trade front, Billy Beane will again be a popular man during the Winter Meetings. With the market for closers drying up via contract extensions, teams looking to acquire an established closer could inquire about 25 year old Oakland right hander Huston Street. He has two years of salary arbitration ahead of him, meaning that any team that would potentially acquire him this offseason would have control of Street through at least the 2010 season. Street endured a down year this past season, but still owns a career ERA of 2.88, a K:BB of better than 3:1., fewer career hits than innings pitched, and a WHIP of only 1.07. The Mets could be potential suitors if Francisco Rodriguez does not sign there. With the late season emergence of rookie Brad Ziegler in the closer role for Oakland, RHP’s Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine will prepare to handle the seventh and eighth innings. The A’s could also swing a trade this winter with their glut of Major League ready, left-handed starting pitchers: Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Dan Meyer, Dallas Braden, and Gio Gonzalez. Left hander Josh Outman, 24, was acquired from Philadelphia in the Joe Blanton deal and has starting experience, but will contribute more in the bullpen as the situational lefty should the A’s decline 38 year old Alan Embree’s 2009 club option. Also in the rotation are newly acquired right hander Sean Gallagher and Justin Duchscherer, who is coming off a career year. If the A’s are looking to deal one or more of their starting pitchers, the Astros, Padres, and White Sox could be potential matches.

In a possible Peavy trade between the Padres and Astros, the Padres will likely demand a package of a center fielder and two pitching prospects, similar to that demanded by the Minnesota Twins when they were peddling Johan Santana. Peavy, evidently, has a desire to remain in the National League, and has a no trade clause he would need to waive. If the Padres were to trade Peavy, which does not make sense because he is under contract with the organization through 2012 and is a perennial Cy Young candidate, the deal could center around CF Michael Bourn, Class-AA lefty starter Polin Trinidad, and righty prospect Brad James, who ended the year on the 40-man roster. The Astros’ minor league system has a dreadful dearth of talent, especially on the pitching front. I hope San Diego GM Kevin Towers is not in too much of a hurry to make this trade, even though Peavy might want to pitch in Houston with his buddy Roy Oswalt.

Another top flight young pitcher who could be on the move this winter is Matt Cain of the Giants. He is a young hard throwing right hander with excellent stuff and, in all three of his full big league seasons, Cain made at least 31 starts, topped 200 innings in both 2007 and 2008, and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. Cain is a dominant pitcher who will continue to develop into a solid ace. The only reason the Giants should consider moving him would be to net a top position player in return, is that Tim Lincecum will anchor the staff and stands to contribute more than Cain in the future. If the Giants do move Cain, they should be looking for a long term upgrade at any one of the infield positions. A late inning reliever will also be necessary if the team wants to compete for a post-season spot in the coming years.

Finally, it is that time of year for the Marlins who will begin next season with Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, and Andrew Miller in the rotation. Nicky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Scott Olsen are the three others competing for the last two spots. Nolasco performed best out of the trio, and Olsen has been healthier and more durable than Sanchez. I would not be surprised in the least to see the Marlins part ways with one or more of the later three, as the club never ceases to amaze me with the young pitching talent it continues to produce at the Major League level. Twenty four year old lefty Eulogio De La Cruz (Class-AAA, 13-8/ 4.34 ERA/ 118 K in 25 starts) is my pick be the next Marlins starter to make an impact on the rotation should a combination of injuries and trades occur.