Off-Season Speculation - Part 2: Position Players

Free Agency:

The big-names to be courted during this winter’s free agency period (Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, etc.) and big-name players who will potentially be shopped, (Garrett Atkins, Mike Cameron, etc.) are not the subject of this column, as they are discussed to no end by every beat writer and blogger who regards himself as a baseball expert. My goal is to predict the destinations of the smaller name players who will have big impacts in the coming seasons and to examine the reasons why certain signings/trades make sense. After all, the majority of off-season moves fall into this category, and ultimately make a big difference for the buyers and sellers over the course of the season.

One key free agent to watch is LF Pat Burrell. It is well known that Burrell’s first choice is to remain in Philadelphia with the team that drafted him first overall in 1998. The team to watch in the Burrell sweepstakes, should the Phillies push him out the door, is the Baltimore Orioles. The team has shown interest in Burrell in previous years, and it was reported that the club even had a deal in place two years ago for the left fielder until Burrell exercised his no-trade clause. With Adam Jones a lock in center field and Nick Markakis in right, Burrell would seem the obvious choice to start in left ahead of Luke Scott who shared time with free agent veteran Jay Payton. Payton will not be back if Burrell signs with Baltimore. Scott put up respectable numbers in 2008, registering career-highs in home runs (23) and RBI’s (65). Scott (.257 BA in 2008) is only about a year and a half younger than Burrell (.257 career BA). Burrell’s production and defense, yes his defense (86 outfield assists since 2000, including 12 in 2008), will outweigh Scott’s edge in the youth category. Offensively, since his first full season in 2001, Burrell has averaged over 29 HR and 93 RBIs per season. At 32, he will be an impact in the middle of the lineup still for a number of years. Another team to watch is the Dodgers, who might be in need of a LF should Manny Ramirez depart. Andruw Jones has bottomed out, but has one year remaining in LA, and Juan Pierre has requested a trade. With Matt Kemp in center, Andre Ethier in right, and two big right handed bats leaving the lineup (Ramirez and 2B Jeff Kent), Burrell would fit nicely in left for Joe Torre’s squad. Look for Burrell, who earned $14 million in 2008, to receive a contract slightly upwards of Eric Byrnes’s pre-2008 contract extension, worth $30 million over three seasons.

Free agent 3B Joe Crede is out of a job on the South Side of Chicago, as Josh Fields is the heir apparent at third, and the White Sox have grown tired of Crede’s never-ending back issues. Crede is a legitimate power threat, topping 20 HR in three consecutive years from 2004-2006, hitting 30 in ’06, the best offensive year of his career. In addition to his offensive aptitude, he has an exceptional glove at third base. His performance defensively was poor in 2008, the only year in which he topped 12 errors in a season. His career .963 fielding percentage speaks for itself. Crede goes toward the line and can pick it on his backhand with the best of them. Injuries will be the only detractor in Crede’s case, but the Brewers, Dodgers, Indians, Angels and Twins should be most interested. The Indians just dealt 3B Casey Blake, who could walk away from the Dodgers, the team that dealt 3B prospect Andy LaRoche in order to land Manny Ramirez at the trade deadline. The Brewers officially gave up on Bill Hall, buying out his contract, and 3B has been a problem spot for the Twins since the Mike Lamb experiment failed last season. Crede and Blake will create competition among these teams looking to shore up their hot corners. If healthy, Crede is hands down the better value and is five years younger than Blake. The teams interested will certainly be reduced by one should one of those mentioned swing a trade for Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins, who has two arbitration years ahead of him before free agency.

Pending Burrell’s departure from Philadelphia, the Phillies will be looking for a right handed bat to platoon in the outfield and to balance the bench that includes lefties Matt Stairs, Jeff Jenkins, and Greg Dobbs. A low risk solution could potentially be found in 30-year old free agent Juan Rivera. He is a career .284 hitter and had his best season in 2006, but has lately been the victim of the Angels' outfield depth (Vlad Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Garrett Anderson – also a free agent, Gary Matthews, Jr., Reggie Willits). Rivera will not be expensive, and should welcome the idea of a platoon role over being a fifth outfielder, as he was in LA.

Sean Casey’s one-year, $800,000 contract with the Red Sox has expired, and with Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, and even David Ortiz able to man first base in Boston, Casey is almost a sure bet to depart. He is a career .302 contact hitter with a lifetime on-base percentage of .381 and seems a perfect fit for the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane’s style of low-risk, short-term signings. First base has been a problem spot for Oakland as Daric Barton and John Hannahan performed terribly at the plate this past season. Barton and Hannahan, who manned third base for much of the year for the oft-injured Eric Chavez, were near mirror images of each other in 2008 as Barton hit .226 with 9 HR/ 47 RBIs/ 2 steals in 140 games and Hannahan hit .218 with 9 HR/47 RBI/ 2 steals in 143 games. Both are left handed, like Casey. I’ll take Casey.

Trades:

One of the most intriguing teams this off-season is shaping up to be the Oakland A’s. Billy Beane just acquired LF Matt Holliday from the Rockies for lefty starter Greg Smith, closer Huston Street, and OF Carlos Gonzalez. As I have written before, the shrewd GM is turned off by any long-term contract and commitment demands, the same demands that Holliday will be making one year from now when he tests the free agent market for the first time. So, first order of business is to discount any possibility of Holliday being in an Athletics uniform beyond 2009, or maybe even by the end of the 2009 season. Beane often signs veterans to 1-year deals, which is essentially what he has in Holliday, at $13 million, a salary Beane is never inclined to hand out. I see two potential options that Beane is weighing. The first is another trade of Holliday before the start of the season, when teams who do not solve their off-season LF issues begin to panic. In such a trade, Beane, whom I regard as the most deft trade negotiator in baseball, would garner more young talent than he gave up in Smith, Street, and Gonzalez. If he does not go this route, I expect Beane to deal Holliday at next year’s trade deadline, given that the A’s trail the Angels in the West. In that situation, Beane again would receive more in return than he gave up to get Holliday. If the A’s are in first place in the AL West come the end of July 2009, Beane will likely keep Holliday’s bat and receive two compensation draft picks (one from the team Holliday signs with, one supplemental round pick) in return, as Holliday will certainly be classified as a Type A free agent.

With the recent re-signing of sure handed 2B Mark Ellis (.989 fielding percentage) to a 2-year extension through 2010, Ellis could be keeping second base warm for 21-year old Double-A prospect Adrian Cardenas (.297 career Minor League BA). A year from now, depending on Cardenas’s progress in Triple-A Sacramento, Ellis could be valuable trade bait to a high-powered team looking to shore up second base with top-flight defense (i.e. the Cubs should Mark DeRosa sign elsewhere). Eric Chavez is also under contract through 2010. He has one of the best gloves I have ever seen at third base (.969 career fielding %), and is a 25 HR threat when healthy. He also will only be 31, and hopefully back and shoulder pain free, when the 2009 season begins. A solid campaign this coming year could net Beane quality young talent in a potential trade next off-season.

Teams looking for a utility man will probably first inquire about Willy Aybar of Tampa Bay following his strong performance as a fill-in at 3B when Evan Longoria went down. Aybar’s .353 postseason batting average and pair of HRs in the ALCS drove up his market value, but GM Andrew Friedman should be inclined to keep Aybar, who is valuable all around the infield.

When Willy Aybar does not work out, teams should turn their attention to the Angels’ infield as Brandon Wood is primed to emerge as the everyday shortstop, finally adding some pop to the position that has been manned by Willy’s brother Erick Aybar, fellow utility man Maicer Izturis, and even Chone Figgins. Aybar and Izturis will be expendable now that Wood is here to stay, and should the Angels land a third baseman such as Joe Crede, Figgins will fall into the expendable category, as well. Erick Aybar and Izturis are basically equals offensively, but Aybar (24) is four years younger and is more likely to see his offensive numbers improve in the coming years. Izturis (.967 career fielding %, .991 at SS in 2008) is clearly the better defender, especially at shortstop, and could remain a solid utility man for the Angels. I see Aybar as having the better chance of being dealt to compete for a starting job with a lower end, smaller market team searching for a SS, such as the Orioles, Giants, or Pirates, should Jack Wilson be dealt. The Cardinals, Twins, and White Sox could be interested later in the off-season if nothing else turns up. The Braves could become interested if SS Yunel Escobar is included in a deal and the Padres should keep an eye on Aybar if they deal struggling SS Khalil Greene. Aybar could draw more interest than most people think. The market is thin beyond aging vets Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal, and Edgar Renteria. David Eckstein and Adam Everett are not legitimate contributors. Finally, it pains me to say that Omar Vizquel, one of the all-time greats at shortstop might not report to spring training for a 21st season in 2009 as teams can no longer afford his bat in the lineup. The 41 year old’s glove work is still as good as it ever was (.993 fielding % in 2008), but Vizquel, along with his .984 career fielding %, has most likely come to the end of the line.

I like that the Rangers picked up Hank Blalock's '09 option. This pushes Milton Bradley out the door, as Blalock should now DH. The only spot for Chris Davis is at 3B now, if the Rangers want Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the everyday lineup. I think it is hard to keep a 23-year-old, 6'4/ 235 man crouched behind the plate because it risks shortening his career with knee injuries, and Max Ramirez will start everyday at Triple-A if not included in a trade for a pitcher. Gerald Laird is under contract until after the 2010 season and will be their catcher, while 24-year old Taylor Teagarden could back up. The Marlins, who have a knack for replenishing their starting pitching as well as finding young, cheap talent, could unload a starter to the Rangers for Ramirez. A deal involving Ricky Nolasco or Anibal Sanchez, Rick VandenHurk, and Cody Ross could net the Fish the backstop along with pair of mid-level pitching prospects, such as Derek Holland and John Bannister. Neftali Perez, currently at Double-A Frisco for the Rangers, should not be going anywhere.