Ready to Strike

The Rays seemed to shock everyone except me with their World Series run last season (See my April 2008 column: “Tampa Bay Will Have its Day” - http://www.mlbballtalk.blogspot.com/). It has become popular among baseball writers and self-confident, yet dim-witted bloggers to cleverly point out the fact that since 2001, at least one of the two teams to reach the World Series seemed to do so riding long shot, Cinderella chances and/or relative obscurity of some of their key, young players. The Diamondbacks in 2001, Mike Scioscia’s Angels in 2002, the Marlins in 2003, the Red Sox in 2004, the Astros and White Sox in 2005, Cardinals in 2006 (cemented by rookie closer-now-starter, Adam Wainwright), the Rockies in 2007, and the Rays in 2008 each realized improbable runs to the Fall Classic. These gurus are then quick to beg the question, “Who will be the Rays of 2009?” Bravo to all the self-proclaimed baseball experts who not only picked up on this overtly repeated trend, but also have the foresight to project its continuance!

In 2009, the most serious contender for an underdog run is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Not only are they serious contenders, but I declare them my early favorites to win the National League Championship Series in 2009. This prediction, as are all in the world of sports, is contingent on the absence of significant injuries to the players instrumental in their club’s pending success (i.e. Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Max Scherzer, Chad Qualls, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young).

In order for the Diamondbacks to be the contenders that they should be this coming season, three essential things must happen. First, Mark Reynolds must improve his defense at third base. Reducing his error total at third base by about 40% would be a start (34 errors in 150 games at 3B in 2008). Second, CF Chris Young, RF Justin Upton, and Reynolds must all raise their batting averages a minimum of 20 points (.248, .250, and .239 respectively in 2008). Third, young right hander Max Scherzer must continue to emerge as one of the games best young pitching prospects.

With the recent departures of Randy Johnson and Micah Owings, the Diamondbacks began a winter quest to fill their two voids, behind co-aces Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, with veteran lefty Doug Davis holding the final rotation spot. One of those voids was successfully filled for the short term with the signing of Jon Garland, whom I consider a lock for 200+ innings, 32 starts, and approximately a 4.50 ERA, if the last seven years are any indication of what is to come. And they are, plus he is shifting to the National League for the first time in his career, where there is a true bottom to every batting order.

Filling the other hole falls squarely on the shoulders of Scherzer, for whom the organization has high expectations. Scherzer has a power arm and routinely runs fastballs up at 95-96 mph. I’ve seen him hit as high as 98 on the gun. His repertoire also features a good change up between about 85 and 88 mph. His two seam fastball and breaking ball give him a complete set of pitches with movement that he needs to induce ground-ball outs in a division that features hot weather towns and the zero-gravity of Coors Field. Come playoff time, Scherzer becomes the wild card. He is capable of out-performing any other number 3 or 4 pitcher he would stand to be matched up against. These include Rich Harden and Ted Lilly of the Cubs, Jaime Moyer and Joe Blanton of the Phillies, Oliver Perez and John Maine of the Mets (although Maine is a similar type of pitcher), and some combination of Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and Randy Wolf of the Dodgers.

The team with the deepest rotation will pitch its way through the post-season, as bats often go cold with the weather. The Diamondbacks have deep, quality pitching and a potent offense that also features plenty of speed. The Giants have an extremely strong rotation, but the offense will struggle again. No Molina should be a 4-hole hitter. The Padres will have similar offensive issues, as Adrian Gonzalez remains the only major run producer. The Rockies have lost Matt Holliday’s bat, just about every member of their starting rotation has control issues, and the back end of the bullpen features two question marks: Huston Street’s shoulder and Manny Corpas’s effectiveness. The Dodgers are the D-Backs’ competition in the NL West this year, but Arizona’s young stars experienced their growing pains last year, and the club is poised to see individual breakout seasons all over the diamond. They have the fire power to get to October and the perfect blend of youth, experience, and talent to carry them the rest of the way.

On the Side: With the departure of perennial Gold Glove 2B, Orlando Hudson, the D-Backs quietly signed Felipe Lopez to man second base for the 2009 season. Lopez is a very capable defensive replacement, and could provide some more punch to the already imposing lineup, should he continue the torrid hitting pace with which he ended the 2008 season. In the 43 games after his move to St. Louis at the end of last season, Lopez hit .385 with four of his six home runs. His on-base percentage also skyrocketed to .426, up from his career average of .330. Those numbers will of course come down, but hopefully Lopez will finally be the catalyst in the Arizona offense he has always had the ability to be. At 28 years old, he will begin 2009 in the prime of his career. Hitting in a power-rich lineup that included Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus, and Rick Ankiel, despite late-season woes, was something he lacked in Washington, is what ignited Lopez’s second half last year. With his new club, Lopez finds himself amid the power bats of Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew, and all those in contention for outfield positions. He should see the most fastballs of any player in that lineup, and what better way to be productive than to be protected in the order?

Baseball season begins every year in Arizona and Florida. This year, it will end there as well. Arizona vs. Tampa Bay for the reasons I have stated this year, and last.